If you want to be notified when I update this site, go to: twitter.com/Brian_Ripley and click "Follow". Welcome to Brian Ripley's Canadian Housing Price Charts Blog for Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal comparing Canadian Real Estate House Prices and Market Values against a Backdrop of Gold Bullion, Oil, CPI, Interest Rates, the Canadian Yield Curve and the S&P TSX Housing, Financial Services, Energy and Gold indices. Also available are the current Canadian census population data, Stats Can employment earnings, mortgage affordability tables and a quick and easy spreadsheet for discovering real estate value. I update the commentary, the monthly price change summary, the housing and financial charts, the percentage price change scorecard and the Plunge-O-Meter, usually by the 2nd week of the month which is when the Canadian real estate boards generally have their data published from the previous month. If you want to advertise on this site, contact Brian Ripley

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meanwhile in the real world...

• July 9/10 Unemployment rate rises in B.C. despite national drop.
• July 9, 2010 “DRAMATIC” Decline in Housing Meredith Whitney a widely followed U.S. analyst is expecting big trouble in housing in the next 9 months.
• July 6/10 Canada Housing Peak is Finally In This pattern is quite similar to how things cascaded in the US once the top was in.
• July 6/10 Interview of Brian Ripley and his "Fun Facts" with Michael Hainsworth of BNN. http://tinyurl.com/366c3bj
• July 5/10 Montreal’s water network will require massive outlays, estimated at $4 billion.
• July 1/10 Victoria BC Notebook: Falling average prices due to supply versus demand ratios in the Victoria real estate.
• June 21/10 Another Housing Price Collapse in Queens NY is almost certain. With a population of roughly 2.2 million real estate peaked in 2006 as the median sell price reached $500,000. Compare this to Vancouver's current combined residential "benchmark" price of $580,237.
  
  “From the moment a New Yorker is confronted with almost any large city of Europe, it is impossible for him to pretend to himself that his own
  city is anything other than an unscrupulous real-estate speculation” Edmund Wilson

The CANADIAN REAL ESTATE PLUNGE-O-METER & PRICE SUPPORT FORECASTER tracks the dollar and percentage losses from the peak and projects when prices might find support. Housing price data are average Single Family Dwellings* except Ottawa which are Combined Residential (Single Family, Multi Family and Condos). Montreal data changed from average to median at March 2007)

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The price support target** in the table above represents what average Single Family house prices across Canada were in March 2005 (Ottawa are combined residential) which marked the beginning of a 5 year period of ardent speculation in Canadian real estate. Look at the price chart and see that there was a 4-6 month plateau period while buyers and sellers twitched like a herd. When the credit spreads narrowed and the yield curve began its journey towards inversion, the stampede began.
 

NOTE WORTHY:
Is it possible to have a system of taxation which is simple, efficient, progressive, and revenue neutral replacing all existing taxes: personal, corporate, provincial, fuel, capital gains, estate, excise and sales taxes with no filing of tax returns, no lobbying and no special deductions? As it turns out, Yes.

By capitalizing on financial data processing technology, it is possible to create a tax code for the 21st century; one that is astonishingly easy for all citizens to understand, that is easy to administer and to comply with because it eliminates the need to file tax or information returns. The system, developed by University of Wisconsin Professor of Economics Edgar L. Feige, is known as the APT or Automated Payments Transaction Tax.

Dr. Feige would levy a toll (based on U.S. data from 2005) of just 0.6 percent on every electronic financial transaction. The fee would be split by payer and payee in any transaction, meaning you would pay 0.3 percent whenever you spent or received money. Someone spending $50,000 a year would pay just $150 in "tax", without any need to file a return. A $100 restaurant bill would yield a $0.60 fee split 50/50 between the restaurant and the patron. 

Most of the value of transactions in a modern economy consists of financial dealings: sales of stocks, bonds, currency exchanges, and transactions at tens of thousands of point of sale terminals.

Implementation of this elegant and simple idea in Canada would allow Canadians to create an original, authentic social organization that would eventually be copied by all other nations; unless of course the incumbents are afraid of change and would rather cling to their failed state agenda.  

• FAQs: www.apttax.com/faq.php

• Executive Summary: http://www.apttax.com/execsummary.php

• Dr. Edgar L. Feige's CV: www.apttax.com/drfeige.php

• February 2, 2003 New York Times Article "One Tiny Little Tax"

• August 5, 2004 Glenn Beck interview of William J Hermann, Jr. MD, Director APT Tax Project   www.apttax.com/glennbeck.php

Let's apply the power of the internet to get this Automated Payments Transaction Tax idea into the mainstream and into application. Canadians, write your Member of Parliament.

AND THIS JUST IN: What will be the "liquidity event" ie: the credit event that causes a severe melt down (or melt up!) in the global equity and commodity markets this year, 2010? Answer: It could be BP.

Read this review by Gordon Long (presently involved in private equity placements internationally along with proprietary trading involving the development and application of Chaos Theory and Mandelbrot Generator algorithms.)

http://www.safehaven.com/article/17352/sultans-of-swap-bp-potentially-more-devastating-than-lehman

It's well worth the read... Gordon argues that the BP Gulf Disaster could be the credit event that causes:

"Deleveraging associated with BP may be the event that triggers the $5T Quantitative Easing spike we have been warning about for some time now. It will be needed to complete the final process of manufacturing of a Minsky Melt-up to avoid the looming pension, entitlement and US state financial crisis. The ability of the government to achieve this is anything but certain. However, we need to expect the unexpected and watch out for fat tails to trip over."

Melt-up: http://mises.org/daily/2787

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