Welcome to Brian Ripley's Canadian Housing Price Charts Blog for Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal comparing Canadian Real Estate House Prices and Market Values against a Backdrop of Gold Bullion, Oil, CPI, Interest Rates, the Canadian Yield Curve and the S&P TSX Housing, Financial Services, Energy and Gold indices. Also available are the current Canadian census population data and mortgage affordability tables. I update the commentary, the monthly price change summary, the housing and financial charts, the percentage price change scorecard and the Plunge-O-Meter, usually by the 2nd week of the month which is when the Canadian real estate boards generally have their data published from the previous month. If you want to advertise on this site, contact Brian Ripley

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In December 2009 Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal single family house prices reversed course and headed down from their recent peaks 2-5 months ago. The same for Calgary and Edmonton except their peaks were 29 and 31 months ago.

It is now up to Vancouver to blow off their top with either a final surge through their peak of 20 months ago... or December 2009 marks the end of a magnificent asset obsession.

Combined residential sales and inventory were consistently down M/M across Canada in December (scorecard). We shall have to wait for the seasonal spring startup to see what the Canadian sentiment is for taking on debt. The Feds would like you to, it's what they are banking on: "David Wolf, adviser to Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, said the revival in the housing market was an intended result of monetary stimulus and that housing would continue "to work as an important engine pulling the Canadian economy out of recession." SOURCE: http://tinyurl.com/yf6fcj2

The CANADIAN REAL ESTATE PLUNGE-O-METER & PRICE SUPPORT FORECASTER tracks the dollar and percentage losses from the peak and projects when prices might find support. Housing price data are average Single Family Dwellings* except Ottawa which are Combined Residential (Single Family, Multi Family and Condos). Montreal data changed from average to median at March 2007)

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The price support target** in the table above represents what average Single Family house prices across Canada were in February 2005 (Ottawa are combined residential) which marked the beginning of a +/- 3 year period of ardent speculation in Canadian real estate. Look at the price chart and see that there was a 4-6 month plateau period while buyers and sellers twitched like a herd and when the credit spreads narrowed and the yield curve began its journey towards inversion, the stampede began (Feb 2005).

As of December 2009 banks have their 5 year fixed mortgage rate set at a 499 bps above the BoC rate. They borrow from the BoC at near zero and mark it up 5% all risk insured by you dear tax payer thanks to our elected comrades in charge of transferring wealth from private to public hands.

The following by Mike "Mish" Shedlock is worth the read: All Bubbles Pop, No Matter What Color They Are... How long it takes for the bubble to blow up in the UK, Australia, and Canada is at this point the only question. http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=11834

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