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Quote Source:
http://tinyurl.com/yf6fcj2
Image Source:
http://tinyurl.com/yjecr9k |
Vancouver Just Shy of New Record SFD
Price
The Rest of Canada's SFD House Prices
Turn from Gold to Bronze M/M
Canadian Real Estate
Prices, Sales and Inventory Data December 2009
...meanwhile over in the real world,
- Welcome to the Bailout Games. Even with the
intense participation of some of the world's biggest corporations, the
2010 Winter Olympics are being held together by government spending --
much of it never contemplated before the economic bubble burst weeks
after the 2008 Beijing Games. Full article by By Bob Mackin, TheTyee.ca
Jan 11/10
http://thetyee.ca/News/2010/01/11/MackinBailoutGames/
The scheduled and yet to be announced tax increases on that Vancouver condo you are buying will
be paying for the Olympic debt and other boondoggles for a long time. Is
that small condo really worth it? (price evaluator
here)
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In December 2009
Toronto,
Ottawa and
Montreal single family
house prices reversed course and headed down from their recent peaks 2-5
months ago. The same for
Calgary and Edmonton
except their peaks were 29 and 31 months ago.
It is now up to
Vancouver to blow off
their top with either a final surge through their peak of 20 months ago...
or December 2009 marks the end of a magnificent asset
obsession.
Combined residential sales and inventory were consistently down M/M across
Canada in December (scorecard).
We shall have to wait for the seasonal spring startup to see what the
Canadian sentiment is for taking on debt. The Feds would like you to, it's
what they are banking on: "David Wolf, adviser to Bank of
Canada Governor Mark Carney, said the revival in the housing market was an
intended result of monetary stimulus and that housing would continue "to
work as an important engine pulling the Canadian economy out of
recession." SOURCE:
http://tinyurl.com/yf6fcj2
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The CANADIAN REAL ESTATE PLUNGE-O-METER & PRICE
SUPPORT FORECASTER tracks the dollar and percentage losses from the peak
and projects when prices might find support. Housing price data are average Single Family
Dwellings* except
Ottawa which are Combined
Residential (Single Family, Multi Family and Condos).
Montreal data changed from
average to median at March 2007) |
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*SFD Prices |
Vancouver |
Calgary |
Edmonton |
Toronto |
Ottawa |
Montreal |
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Prices at Peak |
$771,321 |
$505,920 |
$426,028 |
$423,559 |
$318,655 |
$246,000 |
|
Peak Price Date |
Apr-2008 |
Jul-2007 |
May-2007 |
Oct-2009 |
Oct-2009 |
Jul-2009 |
|
Prices Now |
$766,816 |
$451,349 |
$366,761 |
$411,931 |
$307,807 |
$240,000 |
|
Prices Now Date |
Dec-2009 |
Dec-2009 |
Dec-2009 |
Dec-2009 |
Dec-2009 |
Dec-2009 |
|
Months since Peak |
20 |
29 |
31 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
|
$ Plunge from Peak |
-$4,505 |
-$54,571 |
-$59,267 |
-$11,628 |
-$10,848 |
-$6,000 |
|
$ Plunge per Year |
-$2,696 |
-$22,532 |
-$22,891 |
-$69,576 |
-$64,909 |
-$14,313 |
|
% Plunge from Peak |
-0.6% |
-10.8% |
-13.9% |
-2.7% |
-3.4% |
-2.4% |
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% Plunge per Year |
-0.3% |
-4.5% |
-5.4% |
-16.4% |
-20.4% |
-5.8% |
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Deflation per Month |
$225 |
$1,878 |
$1,908 |
$5,798 |
$5,409 |
$1,193 |
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**Price Support Target |
$491,821 |
$265,173 |
$204,886 |
$334,272 |
$240,533 |
$209,216 |
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Months Until Target |
1224 |
99 |
85 |
13 |
12 |
26 |
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Price Support Date |
Dec-2111 |
Apr-2018 |
Jan-2017 |
Feb-2011 |
Jan-2011 |
Feb-2012 |
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The price support target** in the table above represents what
average Single Family house prices across
Canada were in February 2005 (Ottawa are combined residential) which marked the beginning of a +/- 3 year
period of ardent speculation in Canadian real estate. Look at the
price chart and see that there was a
4-6 month plateau period while buyers and sellers twitched
like a herd and when the credit spreads narrowed and the
yield curve began its journey towards
inversion, the stampede began (Feb 2005).
As of December 2009 banks have their 5
year fixed mortgage rate set at a
499 bps above the BoC rate. They borrow from the BoC at near zero
and mark it up 5% all risk insured by you dear tax payer thanks to our
elected
comrades in charge of transferring wealth from private to
public hands. |
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