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Canadian Trucking Companies, Flatbed Trucking & Freight Quotes. www.transportationservices.ca

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Canadian Housing Price Charts by Brian Ripley www.chpc.biz

 
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Go to: http://twitter.com/Brian_Ripley If you want to be notified when I update this site, go to: twitter.com/Brian_Ripley and click "Follow". Welcome to Brian Ripley's Canadian Housing Price Charts Blog for Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal comparing Canadian Real Estate House Prices and Market Values against a Backdrop of Gold Bullion, Oil, CPI, Interest Rates, the Canadian Yield Curve and the S&P TSX Housing, Financial Services, Energy and Gold indices. Also available are the current Canadian census population data, Stats Can employment earnings, mortgage affordability tables and a quick and easy spreadsheet for discovering real estate value. I update the commentary, the monthly price change summary, the housing and financial charts, the percentage price change scorecard and the Plunge-O-Meter, usually by the 2nd week of the month which is when the Canadian real estate boards generally have their data published from the previous month. If you want to advertise on this site, contact Brian Ripley

 
 

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Canada's Hot Real Estate Story Cools
Except for Montreal, prices drop and sales plunge.  
Canadian Real Estate Prices, Sales and Inventory Data June 2010

The Plunge-O-Meter has kicked back into gear after a wonderful rally out of the January-February 2009 pit of gloom. Now we're post HST, and much later after the historic run up with the commodity boom that ignited like a roman candle in the spring of 2004, and then zoomed away in the spring of 2005. My view is that unless the government of the day can goose the market (free down payments? ability to write off mortgage interest on personal residence? tax reduction on investment income?), we will revisit the prices of the Spring of 2005. But first we have to see what the next sell off does to demand. In case you have forgotten the depth and velocity of the last market reversal when Canadian real estate prices plunged in 2007-2008 (chart); equity vanished as follows:

  • Average Vancouver SFD lost $122,900, down 15.9% in 8 months,

  • Average Calgary SFD lost $92,499, down 18.3% in 18 months,

  • Average Edmonton SFD lost $78,719, down 18.5% in 21 months,

  • Average Toronto SFD lost $55,055, down 13.8% in 9 months,

  • Average Ottawa Residence lost $25,664, down 8.6% in 6 months and

  • Median Montreal SFD lost $6,000, down 2.6% in 6 months

So that's the first test... will prices find support at the levels set in the spring of 2009? It's a different world now than it was in 2007-2009. The days of historically low interest rates are numbered and the cost of debt is being re-priced.  Calculate your real net worth.

 

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meanwhile in the real world...

 
 

The CANADIAN REAL ESTATE PLUNGE-O-METER & PRICE SUPPORT FORECASTER tracks the dollar and percentage losses from the peak and projects when prices might find support. Housing price data are average Single Family Dwellings* except Ottawa which are Combined Residential (Single Family, Multi Family and Condos). Montreal data changed from average to median at March 2007)

 

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*SFD Prices Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Toronto Ottawa Montreal
Prices at Peak $818,403 $505,920 $426,028 $446,593 $333,408 $260,000
Peak Price Date Apr-2010 Jul-2007 May-2007 May-2010 May-2010 Jun-2010
Prices Now $795,025 $481,964 $391,497 $435,034 $326,572 $260,000
Prices Now Date Jun-2010 Jun-2010 Jun-2010 Jun-2010 Jun-2010 Jun-2010
Months since Peak 2 35 37 1 1 0
$ Plunge from Peak -$23,378 -$23,956 -$34,531 -$11,559 -$6,836 $0
$ Plunge per Year -$139,882 -$8,210 -$11,193 -$140,631 -$83,170 $0
% Plunge from Peak -2.9% -4.7% -8.1% -2.6% -2.1% 0.0%
% Plunge per Year -17.1% -1.6% -2.6% -31.5% -24.9% 0.0%
Deflation per Month $11,657 $684 $933 $11,719 $6,931 $0
**Price Support Target $503,141 $276,776 $216,187 $330,545 $248,865 $215,407
Months Until Target 25 300 188 9 11 ?
Price Support Date Jul-2012 Jun-2035 Feb-2026 Mar-2011 Jun-2011 ?
 

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The price support target** in the table above represents what average Single Family house prices across Canada were in March 2005 (Ottawa are combined residential) which marked the beginning of a 5 year period of ardent speculation in Canadian real estate. Look at the price chart and see that there was a 4-6 month plateau period while buyers and sellers twitched like a herd. When the credit spreads narrowed and the yield curve began its journey towards inversion, the stampede began.
 

 
 

 

NOTE WORTHY:
Is it possible to have a system of taxation which is simple, efficient, progressive, and revenue neutral replacing all existing taxes: personal, corporate, provincial, fuel, capital gains, estate, excise and sales taxes with no filing of tax returns, no lobbying and no special deductions? As it turns out, Yes.

By capitalizing on financial data processing technology, it is possible to create a tax code for the 21st century; one that is astonishingly easy for all citizens to understand, that is easy to administer and to comply with because it eliminates the need to file tax or information returns. The system, developed by University of Wisconsin Professor of Economics Edgar L. Feige, is known as the APT or Automated Payments Transaction Tax.

Dr. Feige would levy a toll (based on U.S. data from 2005) of just 0.6 percent on every electronic financial transaction. The fee would be split by payer and payee in any transaction, meaning you would pay 0.3 percent whenever you spent or received money. Someone spending $50,000 a year would pay just $150 in "tax", without any need to file a return. A $100 restaurant bill would yield a $0.60 fee split 50/50 between the restaurant and the patron. 

Most of the value of transactions in a modern economy consists of financial dealings: sales of stocks, bonds, currency exchanges, and transactions at tens of thousands of point of sale terminals.

Implementation of this elegant and simple idea in Canada would allow Canadians to create an original, authentic social organization that would eventually be copied by all other nations; unless of course the incumbents are afraid of change and would rather cling to their failed state agenda.  

Let's apply the power of the internet to get this Automated Payments Transaction Tax idea into the mainstream and into application. Canadians, write your Member of Parliament.

AND THIS JUST IN: What will be the "liquidity event" ie: the credit event that causes a severe melt down (or melt up!) in the global equity and commodity markets this year, 2010? Answer: It could be BP.

Read this review by Gordon Long (presently involved in private equity placements internationally along with proprietary trading involving the development and application of Chaos Theory and Mandelbrot Generator algorithms.)

http://www.safehaven.com/article/17352/sultans-of-swap-bp-potentially-more-devastating-than-lehman

It's well worth the read... Gordon argues that the BP Gulf Disaster could be the credit event that causes:

"Deleveraging associated with BP may be the event that triggers the $5T Quantitative Easing spike we have been warning about for some time now. It will be needed to complete the final process of manufacturing of a Minsky Melt-up to avoid the looming pension, entitlement and US state financial crisis. The ability of the government to achieve this is anything but certain. However, we need to expect the unexpected and watch out for fat tails to trip over."

Melt-up: http://mises.org/daily/2787

 

 

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NOTE New Website Address www.chpc.biz REPLACES www.canadian-housing-price-charts.235.ca
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Data herein and opinions expressed by Brian Ripley are only that, and are not to be relied on as investment advice.
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