It's a bifurcated market. Toronto SFD prices zoom to a new peak, while Vancouver builds a 5 month rolling top. Year end emotions are running high in Toronto as a few buyers bid up the premium SFD locations to new record prices (Canada Chart). The 'gotta have it' urgency is happening against SFD sales dropping 9.6% M/M (Scorecard). In Vancouver SFD prices are forming an extended price resistance (Vancouver Chart) while strata unit prices continue to slip further away from their summer highs. Canadian provincial earnings (Earnings Chart) have hit a near term ceiling while Ontario earnings have been flat and declining for over a year. Without a continuation or expectation of rising incomes, hope for a continuation of rising house prices diminishes. ![]() CLICK TO ENLARGE MOMENTUM CHART As can be seen on the momentum chart to the left (Price Change Chart) we are at another cusp point similar to November 2007 when the cash markets (TSX Real Estate Index) dropped into 'extreme fear' on their way to 'get me out' pulling the physical housing market prices with them. What was going on in the fall of 2007? It was the blowout of every part of the U.S. financial sector connected to their housing bubble exploding. As you can see by the Case-Shiller U.S. House price chart set against the unemployment rate below, when the trend breaks, the resulting correction is violent. The subsequent 'QE' of central bank fiddlers has slowed but not stopped the decline. Canada experienced a parallel plunge in 2008 into the pit of despair (spring of 2009) as it became apparent that we are not an isolated economy. Next up... "the burning apartment building with no exits that is the Euro" (quote thanks to William Hague). ![]() CLICK TO ENLARGE Canadian House Price Chart Summary of Housing Price Changes for Major Canadian Cities November 2011 Vancouver single family detached prices in November 2011 ticked up 0.6% M/M but remain 1.3% below their peak set 5 months ago in June (Chart). Combined residential sales continue to under perform last year and are down 5.9% Y/Y (Scorecard). You can swap an average house in Vancouver for three in Montreal and still have money left over for a new car. An average Vancouver house increased in price by 169% (16%/year) in the last decade while earnings in BC remain trapped (-3.4%) below the national average (Earnings). As the Demographia table shows (Q3-2010 data), it requires almost 10 times the Vancouver median income to buy a median priced house. By my calculation (Table), it now takes 3.6 average BC incomes (ménage à quartre) to qualify for an 80% mortgage on an average SFD here in Vancouver. Calgary detached house prices in November 2011 rallied 3.4% M/M (Chart) but remain 7% below the peak set 52 months ago (Plunge-O-Meter) when the warning showed up in the Gold to Real Estate Ratio (Chart) rising in the summer of 2007 as the Smart Money got out of real estate and moved into gold and oil. In the last precipitous decline that started in the fall of 2007 and bottomed in the early spring of 2009, Calgary shed $92,499 of equity from an average SFD in just 18 months... a boom to bust decline of 18.3%. Alberta has the highest earnings in Canada, 20% above the national trend (Earnings) but ranks second behind Edmonton as the Canadian city with the biggest losses in real estate. Edmonton detached house prices in November 2011 ticked up 0.8% M/M and are 14.2% below their peak set 54 months ago (Plunge-O-Meter). Edmonton ranks #1 in the race to the bottom with a loss of equity of $60,294 since SFDs peaked and are trading at levels comparable to more than 4 years ago (Chart). The next leg down could be painful; in the last great sell off from May 2007 to February 2009 (21 months), average SFD prices dropped 19% and nearly $79,000. Toronto detached house prices for the GTA in November 2011 zoomed 2.4% M/M (Chart) despite sales dropping 9.6% M/M. Note: Toronto Data on the chart are average Single Family Detached Dwelling prices in the GTA since March 2009 (when the TREB began reporting GTA SFD). Prior to March 2009, the data are average combined residential prices in the GTA PLUS 24.5% which is the average percentage difference between combined residential and SFD over 24 months from March 2009 through February 2011. Ottawa detached house prices are not available, instead the chart on this site reflects Ottawa's average combined residential prices. OREB's report is sparse and the CMHC, records for Ottawa inventory remain one month lagging. In November 2011 Ottawa combined residential prices rallied 3% M/M (Chart) against an annual price erosion of nearly 4% slipping away from their peak set 5 months ago (Plunge-O-Meter). Ottawa does have an aggressive employer. In 5 years between 2006 and 2010, the Federal Government increased its workforce 9% (Source:Stats Can). Central governments love to expand on your tax payment and so they tinker away on the goal of endlessly rising prices; their current target (BoC) is to have CPI increase at 2%/yr. The total CPI print for October 2011 was 2.9% per year, down from 3.7% in May 2011. The low bond yields are producing a negative savings rate and fueling the hunt for capital returns. Figure out if you are getting a return here. Montreal detached house prices for November 2011 ticked up 0.7% M/M with sales running at the same levels as last year. Current prices are running 1.8% below the high in price set in June 2011 (Chart) similar to Ottawa. Combined residential inventory in Montreal remains at over 27% higher than last year (Scorecard) and has been in the double digits all year long. |





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