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Real Estate Prices like to Revert to the Mean
As Bob Hoye (Institutional Advisors) likes to quip, "In the beginning, the promoter has the vision and the public has the money. At the end, the promoter has the money, and the public has the vision." (cartoon here)

Today, the New York Times ran the Op-Ed "Why I am leaving Goldman Sachs" by Greg Smith a 12 year employee. In the exposé, Greg relates how Goldman Sachs refers to their clients as "Muppets"... a handy pejorative I suppose if you look at your clients as brainless puppets. Large clients who are herded into big yielding profits for Goldman Sachs are referred to as "Elephants" to be hunted down.

Note to Canadian buyers of pumped up real estate: Do your due diligence. As you can see from the graphic above, great real estate bubbles have an end date (Dubai and Ireland are only 2 of many examples) and that's usually when enough participants in the party on the way up start getting the "vision". 

For a better understanding of the sheer callousness of sellers at the peak read the 2 page Op-Ed from the New York Times "Why I am leaving Goldman Sachs" by Greg Smith "... the environment now (at Goldman Sachs) is as toxic and destructive as I have ever seen it."

 
 
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A Business Cycle Primer  by Bob Hoye  August 4, 2010

"In so many words, Main Stream Economics will be ground between the millstones of Wall Street and Main Street."

 
 
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Authoritarian Audacity is Going to Crash  by Bob Hoye October 15 2009 

"Since the early 1900s the main pitch has been that economic central planning has been needed for the public good. 

Any impartial review of history would conclude that the notion that an economy is national and can be managed by manipulating interest rates has been some form of madness. 

More specifically, financial history itself is a "due diligence" on every wild scheme ever floated – that's in the markets as well as by financial adventurers in public policy."

 
 
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Great Depressions Are So Methodical by Bob Hoye May 14, 2009"

One of the features of a great boom is the excitement of shared convictions about eternal prosperity. One of the features of the consequent contraction is bewilderment about how suddenly the bust arrived. 

Beyond those directly hit, the establishment becomes perplexed by the loss of liquidity and wonders where the money went." 

 

    History and Collected Readings

    "History, real solemn history, I cannot be interested in.... I read it a little as a duty; but it tells me nothing that does not either vex or weary me. The quarrels of popes and kings, with wars and pestilences in every page; the men all so good for nothing, and hardly any women at all - it is very tiresome." Jane Austen spoken by Catherine Morland in 'Northanger Abbey' 

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    "Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement: and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana Vol. I, Reason in Common Sense