Cullen Roche's research has shown that this is likely due to the lack of evidence showing direct connections between economic environments and consistency in prior cases of hyperinflation.
The widely held belief is that government debt and deficits (aka, “money printing”) lead to hyperinflation. But Cullen's research shows that hyperinflation is not merely the result of “money printing” or an expansion of the money supply and in fact tends to occur around very specific and severe exogenous economic circumstances which lead to an increase in the money supply ultimately leading to hyperinflation.
Hyperinflation is not merely high inflation or a collapse in confidence, but is actually due to severe exogenous shocks with very real and provable transmission mechanisms. Historically, these events tend to be:
- Collapse in productivity or lack of economic stability due to lack of productivity.
- Rampant government corruption.
- Loss of a war.
- Regime change or regime collapse.
- Ceding of monetary sovereignty generally via a pegged currency or foreign denominated debt.