Welcome to Brian Ripley's Canadian Housing Price Charts Blog for Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal comparing Canadian Real Estate House Prices and Market Values against a Backdrop of Gold Bullion, Oil, CPI, Interest Rates, the Canadian Yield Curve and the S&P TSX Housing, Financial Services, Energy and Gold indices. Also available are the current Canadian census population data, Stats Can employment data, mortgage affordability tables and a quick and easy spreadsheet for discovering real estate value. I update the commentary, the monthly price change summary, the housing and financial charts, the percentage price change scorecard and the Plunge-O-Meter, usually by the 2nd week of the month which is when the Canadian real estate boards generally have their data published from the previous month. If you want to advertise on this site, contact Brian Ripley

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Summary of Housing Price Changes for Major Canadian Cities February 2010

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• Vancouver's detached house prices are again at a new all-time record high as they ticked up another 1.6% M/M in February 2010. They have rallied 23.5% since their near term low in December 2008 (chart) and have recovered the 15.9% plunge into despair from April 2008 (the last peak) to December 2008's pit of gloom. The 14 month Vancouver rally has blown away the previous record prices of Single Family, Townhouse and Condo units and like a James Cameron Hallelujah Mountain, Vancouver is in complete defiance of gravity and has become an Avatar master of debt creation. By my calculation it takes 3.2 average BC incomes to qualify for an 80% mortgage here in Pandora... errr Vancouver, and by Demographia's calculation it requires 9.3 times the median income to buy a median priced house. This "world" record is the result of government managed low interest rates and default risk being insured by tax payers.

In the March 4-11th 96 page Georgia Straight (a weekly alternative to the CanWest Global Communications Corp (Shaw?) Vancouver Sun and Province) the number of unsold real estate developer projects and reseller/flipper advertisement pages jumped 42% M/M and 162% Y/Y. Furniture ads, spiked in sympathy and budgets for massage parlors, brothels, phone sex and dating services ticked up as well.

My Vancouver Bubble Deflator Index tracks the number of Single Family Dwellings listed for sale in Vancouver (Eastside & Westside) as well as on the North Shore (West Van & North Van) on a chart plotting houses listed under and over $750,000. Vancouver is the most speculative housing bubble in Canada and as it completes its blow off bubble top, we shall see a shift of SFD listing prices to the downside and the proportions below will reverse. As of February 2010 high hopes prevail and 84% of SFD listings in the areas covered are asking over $750,000.... an increase of 2% since November 2009.

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• Calgary's detached house prices zoomed 3.9% M/M in February 2010 (chart) as SFD sales jumped 36% M/M (scorecard). Calgary's detached housing prices peaked 31 months ago (Plunge-O-Meter) when the warning showed up in the Gold to Real Estate Ratio rising in the summer of 2007 as the Smart Money got out of real estate and moved into gold. Average Calgary SFD prices are now only 9.4% below their July 2007 peak.
   

• Edmonton's detached house prices ticked up 0.5% M/M in February 2010 (chart), as SFD sales popped 35% M/M but remain 4% below last year. Edmonton still remains ranked as the Canadian city with the largest percentage plunge in price from their peak 33 months ago (Plunge-O-Meter) down 13.3% or $56,455. Condo prices dropped 3.1% M/M (scorecard).
   

• Toronto's detached house prices in February 2010 soared 5.5% M/M to post a new record high price (chart). Sales in February rose 46% M/M while inventory continued to build, adding another 20% M/M (scorecard). Recall that after the April 2008 gush of exuberance and climax to a high, Toronto SFD prices then plunged 14% in only 9 months shedding $55,000.
   

• Ottawa's detached house prices are not available, instead the charts on this site reflect Ottawa's average combined residential prices. OREB's report is sparse and the CMHC, records for Ottawa inventory remain one month lagging. In February 2010 Ottawa's combined residential prices dropped 1.2% M/M (scorecard) despite the 57% M/M rush in sales. Ottawa ranks second to Calgary in median annual income of $70,700. Our government is the employer of first resort. Between 2005 and 2009, government increased its workforce 9.8% while private industry only increased its employee hires by 4.2%. (Source: StatsCan here and here). Who's your daddy?
   

• Montreal's detached house prices in February 2010 jumped 4.3% M/M and are now only $1000 below their July 2009 peak (chart). SFD sales soared 67% M/M. The only weak spot was the drop in condo prices by 2.2% M/M which echoes the condo price drops in Edmonton and Calgary which could be a measure of fatigue at the bottom end.

The central bank rates and stupid federal government CMHC policies are encouraging existing real estate owners to trade or refinance their properties. New buyers are getting pulled into a market that is poised to plunge. The central bank near zero interest rate policy is not producing long term housing solutions, it's simply providing temporary employment in the unproductive FIRE economy (Financial/Insurance/Real Estate) as it sucks buyers into large debt positions at a time when the world trend is continued asset deflation despite local bubbles. Financial history is clear; after each credit expansion there is a credit contraction. If you want to see how history provides a clear roadmap for the path of deflation after the biggest expansion of credit in financial history then check out Bob Hoye's weekly online interviews from here: www.institutionaladvisors.com/whats-new.htm or read his historical summary of the rise and fall of credit markets "Great Depressions Are So Methodical" and "Authoritarian Audacity is Going to Crash"

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