CALGARY HOUSING Single Family Detached, Town House and Condo Average Prices with Total Residential Listings and Sales and the TSX Energy Index
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NOTE: Condo data from July 2006 to November 2010 are CREB combined Strata. The TSX Energy Index is x15 to fit the chart.
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In October 2018 total residential sales in Calgary continued following a well established downtrend of lower highs that began mid-year 2013; the 5 year sales breakdown has capped prices while inventory has swelled in 2018. |
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In May 2017 real estate buyers heard Trumpets and moved the average price of a detached house to a historical peak and now 15 months later, the buy side of the market is thinning out as the sell side remains active at the recent highs in listing levels since the inventory low in January 2014.
The employed in Alberta are enjoying a return to the average employment earnings range of the October 2014 $60,961 high as the latest earnings clock in at less than 1% below that peak.
But Foreign Direct Investment in Canada has been negative for two decades and the trend spiked to a new wide in 2015, 2016 and 2017. That's a trend. Housing is a commodity as is heavy Alberta crude. Follow the money, see the TSX chart.
Here is another attempt to visualize the distortions of the market where the fundamental requirement of a yield to attract sustainable investment in real estate has been replaced with the lure of capital gains.
Here is another attempt to visualize the distortions of the market where the fundamental requirement of a yield to attract sustainable investment in real estate has been replaced with the lure of capital gains.
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The "improvement" that sits on the land is a wasting asset. If serviced land is so valuable, shouldn't the ratio be 1 house equals at least 3 townhouses? If the numbers don't make sense you can always rent. When MOI is low & MAR is high, developers and vendors have the edge.
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IN THE LAST 10 YEARS
AVERAGE SFD Prices are up: 119% in Vancouver 21% in Calgary 132% in Toronto WHILE Employment Earnings are up: 26% in British Columbia 29% in Alberta 24% in Ontario |
Oil is slippery, CMHC is worried, and so is the Department of Finance Canada (DEC 2016). The oil majors are moving out of Alberta.
Major European Banks Are Backing Away From The Oilsands.
The decision by Europe's largest bank, HSBC, to halt funding for new projects in the oilsands has some wondering if other financial institutions, including U.S. banks and pension funds, will eventually follow suit — and what the impact that might have on Canada's energy sector. HSBC last Friday became the latest European bank to announce that it would no longer finance new greenfield oilsands, coal power plant and arctic drilling projects. It follows BNP Paribas and ING, both of which made similar announcements in the past year. HuffPost April 28, 2018
A massive number of oil and gas wells, facilities and pipeline segments stand to be added to the already bulging files of the Alberta Orphan Well Association in the wake of the likely failure of Sequoia Resources Corp. Calgary Herald March 8, 2018
Over the past three years Canada, and specifically Alberta, have seen an unprecedented exit of capital. This has been caused by several factors... There are three reasons for this: higher operating costs, limited access to markets for their product and an unfriendly political climate. BOEreport.com March 30, 2017
In October 2017, Alberta Energy Regulator listed almost 4,000 orphaned properties in Alberta
In March 2017, Conoco Phillips divests majority of Alberta assets for $17.7 billion
In March 2017, Marathon divests oil assets to CNRL for $2.5 billion
In March 2017, Shell divests oilsands assets to CNRL for $7.25 billion
In December of 2016, Shell sells Montney and Deep Basin assets to Tourmaline for $1.4 billion
In December 2016, Statoil sold its Canadian Thermal Oil assets to Athabasca Oil Corp for $582 million
In October of 2016, Koch Oil Sands issues letter to AER requesting canellation of SAGD project
In June 2016 Chevron announced it was looking to unload more assets in Western Canada
In April 2016, Murphy Oil sold its 5% interest in Syncrude to Suncor for $937 million
In November 2015 ConocoPhillips sold a massive land package
In February 2015, Shell withdrew an application for a new oilsands mine
In December 2014, EOG Resources divested the majority of its Canadian assets
In September 2014 Statoil put an oilsands project on hold for 3 years as it grappled with rising costs
In March 2014, Apache sold a large portion of their Western Canada assets for $374 million
In February 2014 Devon Energy sold $3.125 billion of assets to CNRL
