COMPARE VANCOUVER & TORONTO HOUSING
Single Family Detached, Town House and Condo Prices and Total Residential Listings and Sales and the Absorption Rates as well as INSIDE AIRBNB below
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
The chart above shows the HPI® prices for Vancouver and average prices for Toronto (solid plot lines) as well as the Monthly Absorption Rate (MAR = Sales/Listings as dotted plot lines).
At the old Vancouver price peak in April 2012 before Torontonians joined the party, Vancouver metro SFDs were 64% more expensive than Toronto comparables. In July 2016 at the peak of Vancouver SFD prices, they were 65% more expensive. The gap was closing quickly; it narrowed down to 33% two months but with the sudden late summer zeal to buy in Vancouver and sell in Toronto, the gap has expanded again to 61%. Strata prices are also more expensive in Vancouver; 25% more for town-houses and 23% more for condos.
In March 2017 the Monthly Absorption Rate based on total inventory and total residential sales hit 154% in Toronto vs Vancouver at 47%. Vancouver may have led the FOMO crowd up the ladder, but Toronto maybe sending them down the snake.
In March 2017 the Monthly Absorption Rate based on total inventory and total residential sales hit 154% in Toronto vs Vancouver at 47%. Vancouver may have led the FOMO crowd up the ladder, but Toronto maybe sending them down the snake.
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NOW IN JULY 2017
HIGHER PRICES 61% more for a SFD in VAN 25% more for a Town House in VAN 23% more for a Condo in VAN 2.0 more Listings in TOR than VAN 2.0 x more Sales in TOR than VAN Monthly Absorption Rate GTA:VAN = 1 Ratio of SFD to Strata 1 VAN SFD = 2.1 VAN Town Houses 1 TOR SFD = 1.6 TOR Town Houses 1 VAN SFD = 2.6 VAN Condos 1 TOR SFD = 2.0 TOR Condos 10 Year SFD Inflation Rate: VAN = 126% and TOR = 120% Annual Precipitation VAN/TOR = 2/1 |
MAY 2017 Average Earnings since MAR 2009
BC = $48,879 /yr up 19% since Pit of Gloom ON = $51,330 /yr up 20% since Pit of Gloom 2014 Census Household Median Earnings VAN = $76,040/yr and TOR = $75,270/yr JUN 2017 Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) BC = 4.5% - VAN = 5.1% ON = 6.1% - TOR = 6.8% MAY 2017 Employment Rate (NSA) Charts Here BC = 63.5% - VAN = 64.5% ON = 61.7% - TOR = 62.38% Population 2016 Census Projection VAN = 2.46 mil or 1004 /Km2 TOR = 5.93 mil or 855 /Km2 Earners needed to buy an average SFD: VAN = 3.4 and TOR = 2.0 earners (based on 2014 StatsCan Census Median Household Income) |
Here is another attempt to visualize the distortions of the market where the fundamental requirement of a yield to attract sustainable investment in real estate has been replaced with the lure of capital gains.
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This chart shows the relative values of STRATA units as a percentage of average single family dwellings in the 3 hot markets of Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto. Calgarians are willing to trade 1 house for only 1.4 townhouses. Torontonians will settle for 1.6 townhouses and Vancouverites demand 2.1. |
The "improvement" that sits on the land is a wasting asset. If serviced land is so valuable, shouldn't the ratio be 1 house equals at least 3 townhouses?
If the numbers don't make sense you can always rent. When MOI is low & MAR is high, developers and vendors have the edge.
If the numbers don't make sense you can always rent. When MOI is low & MAR is high, developers and vendors have the edge.
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
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IN THE LAST 10 YEARS
AVERAGE SFD Prices are up: 126% in Vancouver 9% in Calgary 120% in Toronto WHILE Employment Earnings are up: 27% in BC 33% in AB 27% in ON |
INSIDE AIRbnb
Notice in the slideshow above that when the data is filtered to show only Airbnb listings that have received a review in the last 6 months (ie that have probably been rented out), the number of units that show up are considerably less than the total. In Vancouver on these data, 62% (2934 units) didn't get a review and in Toronto 66% (4395 units) didn't. These units that presumably didn't attract transient "tourists" are also probably not available as long term housing stock and that contributes to depressing vacancy rates; it also contributes to municipal tax burdens getting heavier for the rest of us outside the Airbnb "sharing economy". Are Airbnb "hosts" paying taxes to their municipality as Hotels do? Are hosts paying their share of provincial-federal income tax? Are hosts paying for liability insurance?
Inside Airbnb by Murray Cox is an independent, non-commercial set of tools and data to explore how Airbnb is really being used in cities around the world.
Also worth viewing is Tom Slee's work on Airbnb and his "Why Toronto should deactivate Uber". See also my monthly chart on housing rental ads via Craigslist, Kijijij and Airbnb for Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton & Ottawa.
Also worth viewing is Tom Slee's work on Airbnb and his "Why Toronto should deactivate Uber". See also my monthly chart on housing rental ads via Craigslist, Kijijij and Airbnb for Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton & Ottawa.
