HISTORY & READINGS at Brian Ripley's Canadian Housing Price Charts & Plunge-O-Meter

Southern Exposure

5/14/2017

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The U.S. is Canada's biggest trading partner (74% of our total exports and 65% of total imports StatsCan March 2017 data); so we pay attention to our southern neighbour; bigly.

The chart above is my look at Canadian household debt and the observation that Federal Direct Investment into Canada has now been net negative for 20 years with the just published 2016 data update. That's a trend and notice it's now at an historic wide for the last two years.

Foreigners have not been willing to invest in Canada in a net positive way for the last 20 years and Canadian investors prefer to seek their fortune offshore where labour costs are cheaper and regulations less onerous. "Canada’s fall to the third most attractive region in the world for investment is reflective of Alberta’s continued deterioration, as investors continue to view the province as less attractive for investment." Fraser Institute March 2, 2017

Canadians have made a massive long term leveraged bet on domestic housing which is a negative yielding asset that needs cash flow to sustain it. If you have recently signed up for a 25 year mortgage, you should consider asking your employer for a 25 year employment contract; you may need it if most of our business is with the U.S. All bets are off on the future.

I covered what I think to be President Donald Trump's characteristics on November 14, 2016, namely that his tendency is psychopathic and fascist: "Trumped" November 14, 2016, but Let me add some more descriptors.

Kleptocratic from the Greek, literally means "rule by thieves" (Wikipedia).

ITEM: Trump Kleptocracy Watch: An Update. The New Yorker April 4, 2017
ITEM: Kleptocrats manage to nationalize risk while privatizing profits. Washington Post January 5. 2017
ITEM: Trump will turn America into an 'all-out kleptocracy' like Russia and Ukraine. Paul Krugman November 15, 2016

Sociopathic Narcissist: Donald Trump, Narcissistic Personality Disorder and Sociopathy, by John C. Espy Karnacology, March 01, 2017

Here is the introduction:

With all of the discussions going on about Donald Trump’s ‘narcissism’, I thought I might offer a broader clinical perspective regarding sociopathic narcissism. Clearly there is great ongoing discussion about Donald Trump’s ‘narcissism’, however, I believe what has been errant in the discussion is that Trump is by definition not just ‘narcissistic.’ Trump’s narcissistic manifestations also appear to be well entrenched in sociopathy.

From a pragmatic standpoint an ‘amount’ of narcissism is necessary for being successful as it is for living. What is imperative to understand, is that our now president appears to have a definable mental illness that appears to manifest as a narcissistic personality disorder with sociopathy.

This primitive form of narcissism is by definition an intractable and realistically untreatable mental illness that even under the most ideal of clinical circumstances is only manageable at best. In Mr. Trump’s case it is manifest in apparently shady business dealings and in politically oppressive ways. However, the etiology is not business per se or political by nature but rather psychological. What we see manifest in individuals who are primitively bound within this commingled pathological structure takes on the following dynamics:

Sociopathic narcissism is not a diagnosis that is mysterious or one that looks like magical realism. Rather, like most clinical processes it has a relatively well defined structure (within having almost a complete lack of intrapsychic structure) and is also relatively predictable, once the individual has revealed enough of how their sociopathic narcissistic dynamics manifest. First, as we have seen demonstrated repeatedly, and using Mr. Trump as an example, narcissists seek out others who will behave in an obsequious manner, not just while in their physical presence but also who will parrot their projections while out of their physical presence.

In clinical circles that possess a familiarity of sociopathic narcissistic personalities, there is a slang that refers to those who encircle a sociopathic narcissist, particularly one with power, as ‘pandering whores.’ The term is clearly derogatory, particularly for those who seek to achieve secondary gain from riding the coattails of a sociopathic narcissistic individual or those who also manifest the same psychological structure, but have not been able to, if you will, get the traction to achieve the ‘greatness’ or notoriety of the one that they cling too. In essence, they become ‘great’ only in the shadow of the one they bark for.

A primary source of anxiety that lives within the sociopathic narcissist is a terror of ruinous disillusionment which would ultimately terminate in a catastrophic exposure of what is in essence a fraudulent existence. As the risk of exposure intensifies, be it in a dyad or more macro group structures, their intrapsychic constellation becomes increasing more fragile and their manifest behaviour becomes more erratic.

If you want to get under the hood of the Trumpster's brain, keep reading John Espy's diagnosis, it's worth the effort.

As Timothy L. O'Brien, the executive editor of Bloomberg Gadfly and Bloomberg View succinctly put it: Two things have always driven the president: self-aggrandizement and self-preservation. Bloomberg, May 10, 2017.

Trump's need for self-aggrandizement and self-preservation is the easiest filter to use to put all Trump news through when assessing whether Canada and your income is going to be better off as a result of the news. If it is good for Trump, check your wallet.

There are other adjectives to describe President Trump.

This following interview of Trump by editors of The Economist magazine where Trump asks "Have you heard that expression ("prime the pump") used before? Because I haven’t heard it. I mean, I just…I came up with it a couple of days ago and I thought it was good. It’s what you have to do."... will probably elicit more additions to your own list of descriptors.

DONALD TRUMP, the President of the United States, along with Steve Mnuchin, the treasury secretary, and Gary Cohn, the director of the National Economic Council, sat down for a conversation with editors from The Economist on May 4th, 2017.

And Now a Closer Look with Seth Meyers

The Religious Right
Part of Putin's Playbook

If you want a glimpse of where we’re headed as a country, look to Russia. For years, conservatives — especially fundamentalist Christian conservatives — have held Russia as an ideal to which they could aspire. As Vladimir Putin cracked down on the free press and the rights of his Muslim and LGBT citizens, many conservatives came to see him not as a brutal autocrat but as a paternalistic defender of traditional values. Many white supremacists likewise fawn over Putin’s Russia. Neo-Nazi Richard Spencer, now famous for being punched in the face, called it the sole white power remaining in the world, and Klansman David Duke has said he believes Russia holds the “key to white survival.” J. Ryne Danielson, February 2, 2017

Why Vladimir Putin does the bidding of the Orthodox Church against the evangelical Christian religions. Copying from the playbook of Joseph Stalin, Putin revived the Russian Orthodox Church to intensify patriotic support and presents himself as a defender of Christian civilization, because he saw the church had an ability to arouse the people in a way that the party could not.

Sure Thing

5/8/2017

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Investment decisions are made because one believes there will be a reward. Globally, both corporations and households are drawing down their savings and making investments. But In Canada reward seekers are heavily conditioned.

The "Sectoral Savings as a Percentage of Global GDP" chart suggests that households since the mid 1980's have been using up their savings to maintain lifestyle and since the start of ZIRP and NIRP in March of 2009, households with renewed zeal, have been moving cash out of their dwindling low interest savings accounts paired with record low borrowing costs to chase yields at risk.

Corporations since the mid-80's have amassed savings into record levels and after the smoke cleared in 2010, they resumed investment as well.

But in Canada as my Household Debt chart with overlays of GDP, Net Trade and Federal Direct Investment plots show, Canada has not been a net positive target for offshore investment money for the last 20 years. As we know the Alberta tar sands' appeal is troubled:

Carlos Murillo (Conference Board of Canada economist), predicts Canadian (oil sector) industry costs will jump by an average of 13 per cent per year between 2017 and 2021... the peak investment level was $62 billion in 2014... " The Canadian Press March 13, 2017

And the recency bias among households is working itself into heat exhaustion according to Bloomberg (May 8, 2017):

Expectations for Canada’s housing market are heating up, with more than half of respondents in a weekly telephone survey predicting home prices will rise, the first time the measure has topped 50 percent in records dating back to 2008... “Consumer sentiment on real estate has gone from hot to hotter,” said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos... The latest burst of housing momentum has led policy makers to question whether it’s being led by supply and demand or by speculation.

If one is willing to leverage up and buy a negative yielding asset while the attendant stakeholders from government to loan creators are lining up to take a piece of the action, sellers will simply show up and sell it to you. That's a sure thing, just like the Canadian real estate market is speculative 101.

ITEM: "Toronto Homeowners List Detached Homes For Sale At A Record Pace - Toronto homeowners are listing detached homes for sale at a rapid pace, with new listings soaring over 61% last month." BetterDwelling.com May 10, 2017

ITEM: China Commodity Crash Accelerates As Traders "Forced To Destock" ZeroHedge May 9, 2017

As Citi warned over the weekend, "We suspect that a good number of physical traders that are financially leveraged up to five times have been forced to destock due to rising short-term borrowing costs and the recent sharp price corrections... "Citigroup isn’t alone in saying that some traders may be compelled to sell holdings into a falling market as China tightens. Shanghai Cifco Futures Co. said this week signs are emerging that traders are dumping their holdings.

Imagine having to sell real estate in a falling Canadian market.

St. Germain - Sure Thing

Leverage

4/21/2017

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The worsening of (housing) affordability in Q4 (2016) was the sixth quarterly deterioration in a row, the longest run in almost 20 years. National Bank of Canada FEB 8, 2017 Report

My long term chart study of housing starts vs population growth currently projects a 7% Y/Y decrease for full year 2017.

This suggests that indeed more starts could be consumed especially in this low interest rate environment.

Unfortunately the market place is skewed not to what is needed, eg: affordable family units close to appropriate services, but to what attracts non resident owners, flippers and FOMO driven investors who keep throwing greater amounts of leveraged capital at negative yielding and depreciating piles of steel, concrete and wood while governments at every level stand by in fear that they might lose this historic bonanza of property tax and transfer revenue.

My too-far-left radical idea of ending private fee simple land ownership is never going to happen in my lifetime as written. It is my expression of the frustration one feels at the polarity of choice:

Most people are at best only aware of two choices, two patterns, for land ownership – private ownership (which we associate with the industrial West) and state ownership (as in the Communist East).
The Idea of Owning Land by Robert Gilman 1984

But as Gilman points out in his piece, there are other examples of strategies between the two poles, ie: Landtrusts not only for conservation but for community purposes as well. Unfortunately:

"We don't have a national housing policy in this country and we should," "We're probably one of the few OECD [Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development] countries that don't have one."
TheTyee.ca June 2013

But now we have some Federal money being directed at that lack of policy:

Budget 2017 includes new national housing strategy. Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau handed down a budget Wednesday, March 22 that includes a new $11.2 billion national housing strategy
Business Vancouver March 22, 2017

Meanwhile the market grinds on. I suggest that individuals should consider investment in themselves rather than negative yielding real estate because there is no guarantee that the debt positions currently being created will be transformed into equity. What is more enduring is the ability to leverage one's skill set into cash flow as the OECD studies show:

The evidence on how well countries are prepared for the digital economy is rather disturbing. The OECD’s Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) suggests that more than 50% of the adult population on average in 28 OECD countries can only carry out the simplest set of computer tasks, such as writing an email and browsing the web, or have no ICT (Information and communication technologies) skills at all. Only around a third of workers have more advanced cognitive skills that enable them to evaluate problems and find solutions (OECD, 2013). As a result, many workers use ICTs regularly without adequate ICT skills: on average, over 40% of those using software at work every day do not have the skills required to use digital technologies effectively (OECD, 2016a). Skills for a Digital World OECD December 2016

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Perma What?

4/10/2017

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If you are headed north to get away from the crazy real estate prices and the even crazier Tomahawk hurling sociopath in the White House, make sure you choose solid ground. Don't build on or near permafrost.

Permafrost, mostly found in high-latitude regions like the Arctic, stores large quantities of carbon dioxide and methane, which are released when it melts. sbs.com.au APR 11, 2017

"An increase in global warming by 2 degrees Celsius would thaw more than 40 per cent of the earth's permafrost, according to the study... An estimated 35 million people currently live in cities or towns on top of permafrost..."

5 Year Study: Snow, Water, Ice
and Permafrost (SWIPA) April 25, 2017
Thanks to Peter Sinclair

Jennifer Hynes Interview
with Dahr Jamail April 2017

Climate Watch Shorts: Melting Permafrost

Chasing Methane' with Mark Bittman

Ok, now you can go back to your obsession with Canadian housing prices and where they go from here.

Guessing Game

3/17/2017

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Thanks to @Hutchyman for the sale and BC Assessment data in the mashup above.

On the way up in price it was easy. Make an offer higher than list price with few conditions if any and provide the vendor with everything they wanted and voilà, you own the asset if you managed to out-guess the competitive bidders lined up on their phones.

Liabilities were an unimportant consideration because in a few days, a similar property would sell for even more and your balance sheet then became even more credit worthy; check and check.

On the way down, guessing the price that a vendor will agree to is still a requirement; is the vendor holding a property with too little of his own equity and perhaps reluctant to take a loss at this time, or is the property being offered for the first time in let's say the last decade? A single family detached house in Vancouver has increased in price by over 120% in the last 10 years (over 160% in Toronto). The vendor's equity position is an important clue in the guessing game.

Is the vendor attempting to sell in order to repurchase in the same market? That would suggest an end price is required similar to the current snapshot of market comparable sales if trading sideways is the objective. Is the vendor an estate looking to settle accounts for multiple parties? That implies that the end price is not as "sticky" because VALUE can be defined outside the parameters of "comps".

At some point definitions of value might again include an appraiser's use of the "income" approach. Investment real estate cap rates in a city like Vancouver are among the lowest in Canada and so a buyer must determine if there is value in the price. Potential investment capital can dry up and move very rapidly out of a declining market and seek out better (lower risk) returns elsewhere. Low cap rates are tolerated in a rising market but not so much when price momentum shifts to the down side. Vancouver prices peaked July 2016

A declining market requires more work on the buy side and exposes the potential purchaser with risk not seen on the way up.

The CBRE in their 2016 Report list cap rates for "A" class apartment buildings in Vancouver at 2.5-3% (in Toronto 3.25-3.75%, in Calgary 4.5-5%). This week the Bank of Canada benchmark 10 year yield is 1.76% similar to the full month of February plot on my yield curve chart.

What we don't see in the CBRE report is what expense items are used in the developing a theoretical cap rate (Net Income / Asset Purchase Price). I suspect that only the minimum data of property tax, insurance, maintenance and actual expenses paid out are used for a given year in these surveys. Is a vacancy allowance included? Not all tenancies are reliable. Is a management fee included? Someone has to spend time taking care of the asset. Is the asset subject to sudden strata fee spikes or revelations of past due maintenance? These are important questions that any real estate investor who has been playing the game for at least one cycle trend change will ask.

In my 2013 case study, I had to lower the purchase price by 25% to get a return that piqued my interest because I included vacancy and management.

With a 25% drop in sale price, the GRM has dropped nearly 6 points (lower is better) and the CAP Rate has gone up 40 basis points (higher is better) which not a huge move but the yield on investment (ROI) has increased to more than twice the 10 year bond return and that provides an investor the incentive in a ZIRP environment to buy and hold and allow other people's money (the tenant's) to turn debt into equity.
(2013 Case Study)

Owning real estate has risk attached both at the individual ownership level and in the broader market place. It's 2017, if anything, real estate as an investment is even more fraught with unknown risk.

Thanks to Steve Saretsky, Realtor for his
Vancouver Real Estate Market Update February 2017

Oil-O-Nomics

3/9/2017

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It's a big day in the Oil Markets as the price of crude slips below the sentiment price of US$50 the list is growing of oil majors who are withdrawing from further investment in Alberta.

Also yields in the bond markets are continuing their rising trend; ie: the cost to finance is rising.

MAR 9/17 Lower oil prices have the potential to take down the stock market Market Watch
MAR 9/17 Energy Credit Risk Soars As Crude Carnage Continues Zero Hedge
MAR 9/17 U.S. Solar Market Has Record-Breaking Year, Total Market Poised to Triple in Next Five Years SEIA Org
MAR 9/17 Canadian crude just got a lot more Canadian as another global giant bails on the oilsands Financial Post
MAR 8/17 World Doubled Its Solar Power Capacity in 2016 Futurism
FEB 26/17 With Shale Oil Production Like This, Who Needs Trump? Bloomberg
FEB 22/17 Exxon will leave 3.6-billion barrels of tar sands oil in the ground Environmental Defense
FEB 14/17 Don't Hold Your Breath For $70 Oil Prices Forbes
JAN 15/17 Future of the oilsands: the good, the bad and the ugly CBC News
DEC 14/16 Norwegian giant pulls out of Alberta's oilsands National Observer
APR 21/16 Kurzweil predicts solar industry dominance in 12 years Electrek

The first bullet point above should concern the Canadian real estate markets. If a stock market correction gets sparked, the combination of rising interest rates and falling equity values should spook the real estate bull. Mortgage term renewals will go up in price and the bank of mom and dad will reconsider the risk of the rising cost of money. Parents, especially retirement aged or close to it, will not be too eager to take on more debt and purchasers of any age will have to consider timing as an investment criteria rather than buying anything with a front door for fear of missing out as is happening in Toronto. Timing is difficult, but lenders would become more insistent on basic risk assessment fundamentals such as the Income Approach to valuation instead of a rubber stamp and a drive-by appraisal.

Sentiment change is an investment killer and in Canada it would not take much to gather momentum as evidenced in my ongoing Federal Direct Investment plot which has been negative for almost 20 years, and which widened dramatically in 2015. Capital flows are net positive going out of Canada because investors want better returns which is why the oil majors are leaving Alberta for less regulatory and lower cost of production environments.

A March 2000 stock market correction event would lend credence to my February 22, 2017 post Need For Speed which posits that a housing correction could unfold in a much shorter time span than what Harry Dent has in mind especially with Trump-O-Nomics in the house.

Al Gore on the Solar Revolution - TED Talk Clip 1.50 min
2 solar home systems sold every minute in Bangladesh

Need for Speed

2/22/2017

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Dan Loney's February 19, 2017 blog post details an update from Harry Dent about Dent's view on a probable correction low for Vancouver housing prices. I have mashed up Dent's retracement projection with my Plunge-O-Meter fantasy.

Apparently Dent has increased his retracement target from a 43% to a 64% drop from the highs of last year.

A few months ago I spent three days with world renown economist Harry Dent. We had a conversation regarding the state of Vancouver area real estate. He stated that he expected the real estate market to correct 43% in Vancouver from it’s high. This week his office sent me this chart which shows a projected crash of -64%. (FEB 19, 2017)

For a few years now a variety of analysts have been offering downside targets and depending on their bearish points of view, we have seen a rough correction range of anywhere from 10 to 50%. Obviously no one knows what the final number will be nor the duration of time it will take to unfold.

The classic Fibonacci retracements are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.

But there are just too many interference inputs that could either reinforce or cancel any potential arc of change. The most basic influence I point to is the ability to turn debt into equity. If one is highly leveraged against a real estate holding, it's not a problem as long as there is sufficient cash flow to service the debt. But this can be a very fragile relationship because of the risk from unaccounted inputs that began their historical arcs decades ago (Technology, Emerging Markets, Governance, Demographics etc).

The Bank of Canada estimated that more than 20 percent of all insured mortgages were contracted by households that have loan-to-income ratios of more than 450 percent. Hilliard MacBeth for MACLEANS October 12, 2016

As I say, my Plunge-O-Meter is a fantasy model based simply on the current snapshot of how much of the correction has already occurred and if the rate of change continues at the same tempo.

Dent figures the Vancouver bubble began in 2003. I suggest it began in 2005. Dent projects another 14 years (2032) before we reach the price lows; the Plunge-O-Meter currently targets the fall of 2021, or 4.75 years from now. Could it happen? Maybe.

On the price chart in the spring of 2005 there was a 4-6 month plateau period while buyers and sellers twitched like a herd. When the credit spreads narrowed and the yield curve began its journey towards inversion, the commodity stampede began. Plunge-O-Meter

We are on a cusp of change with regards to the yield curve to steepening and credit spreads to widening. (Bob Hoye JAN 27, 2017)

I suggest that there would probably need some very dramatic inputs to change the current sentiment of buyers in Vancouver who, although they have been thinning out according to sales volumes, are still willing to short cash at what appears to be the top of the market that has been in place since July 2016 and a clear divergence from the ebullience of today's Trumpian stock and bond markets.

I think the input drama that changes the Vancouver housing price regime has to come from these very liquid, fast moving stock and bond markets.

Whatever the sentiment shock is, that causes another extreme selloff (Wikipedia list of stock market crashes and bear markets), the need for speed to turn debt into equity will expose the weak hands very quickly, they need to act fast and get ahead of the competition.

Only deep pocketed knife jugglers will prevail until we approach the final lows and then new buyers will be rewarded without any technical market timing analysis. Long before that, we may see a rebirth of interest in the income approach fundamental.

Charles Nenner Interview February 21, 2017

Nenner's historical work suggests the stock market rolls over September 2017 (get out by July) and bottoms in 2020-2021 which dovetails with the Plunge-O-Meter. This is not correlation but we do know from history that the animal spirits can change very suddenly.

Market Crash Recession
by the 5th of November, 2017

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Peter Leeds summarizes the bear argument below. Notice that Peter's comments on U.S. high end Real Estate applies to the detached market in Vancouver right now.

Yellen Will Raise Rates in March
FEB 15, 2017 BNN Interview of Jim Rickards

March 15, 2017 is the Date to Watch
Everything Will Grind to a Halt
David Stockman FEB 27, 2017

Trumponomics

Moderated by Prof. Sebastian Edwards, a former chief economist of the World Bank; this discussion reveals the surprising insights of UCLA Anderson Forecast economists Prof. Ed Leamer and Prof. Jerry Nickelsburg, FEB 16, 2017

David Frum on Trump
"This is the most phoney baloney administration ever"

The election of Donald Trump could mean a gradual shift in the nature of the American political system. The much vaunted checks and balances might be unable to stop a slide into a new kind of authoritarianism. This is how David Frum, senior editor of The Atlantic and a former speech writer, imagines one of the possible futures that await the U.S. He joins The Agenda to talk about political implications under Donald Trump. Published on Youtube Feb 9, 2017

The Rolling Stones - Doom and Gloom

50 Shades

1/27/2017

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50 Shades of Real Estate
Canada Edition

Facing staggering debt loads, hundreds of Alberta post-secondary students are logging on to seekingarrangement.com connecting them to "sugar daddies" who can provide them a monthly allowance and gifts in exchange for negotiated relationships. Calgary Sun January 14, 2017

The chart above shows the number of students pimping themselves out to pay for education, room and board in some selected Universities.

The red notations show the latest Demographia unaffordability rank of each University location. It's not surprising to see Toronto, the biggest metro in Canada as a destination for pussy grabbers. If we had the data, I would imagine Vancouver, the most unaffordable city in Canada and the 3rd most unaffordable out of 404 global cities, would also incent young men and women into prostitution. In 2011, the Vancouver city council estimated there were +/- 10,000 sex workers in the city. (Vancouver Sun, Sept 30, 2016). Note that Victoria BC is listed on the chart above; you know, that nice little tourist town and retirement village that promotes itself as "a little bit of Britain". The study chart claims 361 Victorians use SeekingArrangement.com which amounts to 0.5% of Victoria's 2006 census. Tea, crumpet, hair pie anyone?

"Students from 20 British universities are joining dating Web sites matching young women with older men, in an attempt to raise money to pay off student loans and other debts." IBTimes.co.uk 2012.

Housing unaffordability and income disparity is a result of a patchwork policy by government that has failed to get capital investment into productive employment. Instead we have metro land valuations promoted as if in a casino in a country that has an excess of land and resources. We encourage our citizens to flip real estate to satisfy state revenue needs with the collection of gross consumption taxes on every trade.

Meanwhile new generations of young inheritors of our social contract enter the culture as a rank commodity to be exploited by daddy.

Canada could use an overhaul of its collective aspirations.

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Vancouver Named Sugar Daddy Capital of Canada 2013

Here’s a look at the top 10 Sugar Daddy destinations:

Paris, France
Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
Palm Springs, California
San Juan, Puerto Rico
Chicago, Illinois
Seattle, Washington
Punta Cana, Dominican Republic
*Vancouver, Canada
Las Vegas, Nevada
Barcelona, Spain

*Vancouver Sugar Daddies spent $4,307 monthly on their younger counterparts on average, more than anywhere else in the country.
Vancouver Sugar Daddies are 40 years old and make $292,506 annually, on average. CTV NEWS 2014

Government by Lottery

1/1/2017

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2017 kicks off with the BC Government helicoptering 2nd mortgages ONLY if you qualify and agree to take on a high ratio insured 1st mortgage. Welcome to late stage STATE SPONSORED SUBPRIME LENDING.

In 1986 Bill Vander Zalm promised to lower the price of beer (page 3, 2nd bullet point, The Ubyssey October 24, 1986). It never happened but Bill caught 50% of the popular vote in that election with his "Fresh Start" campaign against the NDP.

Thirty years later the average price of a detached house in Vancouver has risen more than tenfold while average earnings have only gone up 2.5 to 3 times and the government plan now is to stoke a consumption mania with zero interest and principal 2nd mortgage money for 5 years as well as beer in your barbershop. The next BC provincial election is in May 2017 and the credit tap is wide open. Place your bets.

Changes to B.C. liquor rules allow barbershops, salons and other retail outlets to serve alcohol.

January 23, 2017, is when barbershops, salons, spas, cooking schools, art galleries, bookstores and other B.C. businesses that do not have bars and restaurants on their premises can apply for a liquor-primary licence so that liquor can be served to customers in these non-traditional establishments. All sorts of businesses will be able to apply for a liquor-primary licence as long as they do not operate from a motor vehicle, or target minors. And this may be of great interest to many small retail businesses that would like to provide, as a courtesy, a glass of wine, champagne or other alcoholic beverage to their customers without fear of breaking the law. Globe and Mail November 19, 2016

This "1st-time" homebuyers grant only serves the 'privileged,' says Nathanael Lauster UBC Associate Professor in Sociology

Inside 'House of Debt' with Amir Sufi

Canadian household debt levels continue to peak.

HARD EIGHT

Anti-Trade Vancouver Edition

12/19/2016

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The Premier of BC Christy Clark is in the news again with her pre-election enticement of no interest loans for 60 months of up to $37,500 to wannabe buyers who need a bigger cash down payment to qualify for a mortgage to purchase real estate in BC's absurd housing market that has been on ice since the summer. BNN Dec 16, 2016

The chart mashup above was prompted by an observation from a reader (S.B.) that the technical structure of the Vancouver housing market is now within momentum levels for a trend change to the downside as soon as the next retest and failure of the recent highs completes; the setup being the "anti-trade". S.B. made earlier observations here "3 Vancouver Views" Sept 2016 and "Simple as ABCD" May 2016; thanks SB.

The evidence of serious downward repricing has this provincial government attempting to goose the demand side of the market with free ZIRP money provided by you and me dear tax payer. Not only will we tax payers supply the down payments to people who don't qualify under the already sub prime CHMC lending standards, but we are additionally collectively subsidizing the banking and mortgage industry that has little or no lending risk and we are continuing to feed the provincial government tax collector via the property transfer tax. "In total the property transfer tax brought in $1.53 billion for the government, $605 million more than budgeted" said BC Finance Minister Mike de Jong CBC NEWS July 2016.

Ontario and Toronto are also implelled to goose the fence sitters into buying into the market:

Ontario land transfer tax rebate doubled to $4K for first-time homebuyers. City News November 2016.

Ontario’s land transfer tax rises from 0.5 per cent on the first $55,000 of a purchase price to two per cent for everything above $400,000. Toronto’s land transfer tax is one per cent on the first $55,000 and two per cent on the rest. Toronto offers rebates of up to $3,725 for first-time homebuyers.

Sousa also announced a freeze in the property tax on apartment buildings while the government reviews how the tax burden affects rental market affordability. (Will landlords pass this along to tenants?)

Taxation and picking electoral sectors to reward or punish has created overly complex bureaucracies that exist in their own bubbles far removed from those they claim to serve. Every election brings new promises of reform (kiss that recent electoral reform goodbye) and at some point in the election cycle we hear that tax reform is on the agenda but reform never seems to make the cut. We may have to wait for a new generation of engineers armed with big data and new algorithms to simplify the tax structure. My favoutite is The Automated Payment Transaction Tax. It would do away with the tax department and with having to pay for the accounting and filing of overly complicated annual tax filings. The problem in this country is not the absence or lack of money creation.

Political ideology at all levels of government since the post war "invention" of CMHC has destroyed any possibility of a social contract that includes affordable housing as a basic right of tax payers. It appears to me that governments at all levels in Canada will continue to promote and urge Canadians to add even more household debt to their balance sheets that are already at historic levels nationally and globally. Although the Federal Government appears on the surface to be more rational than the provincial governments by warning Canadians who already have high levels of debt, they are not concerned with Canadian Banks who continue to be sheltered by tax revenue from the private sector. What they are concerned with is a RECESSION and THEIR OWN FEDERAL CASH FLOW. Is it irony or finger wagging and buck passing? The government is hooked on the commodification of real estate; it's a cash cow with a golden udder of debt that we are all attached to.

Here is the Federal Government at work:

CHMC Promotions Oct 2016 by the Globe and Mail

1992 Allow RRSP withdrawals for home purchase.

1999 Allow purchase with only 5% down payment.

2003 Remove house price ceiling on insured mortgages.

2003 "Green" mortgage insurance premium reduction and environmental incentives.

2005 Self Employed can self declare a 15% gross up of income and access all mortgage insurance products.

2005 Amortization increased to 30 years on insured mortgages.

2006 Amortization increased to 35 and 40 years on insured mortgages.

Warning from the Bank of Canada:
Risk of household financial stress and a sharp correction in house prices.

Some notes from the Satyajit Das videos below:

Real growth was produced from the Industrial Revolution.
But since the 1980's, growth has been fuelled by debt.
An asset's income should pay for its debt.
In the 1950's $1 to $2 of debt paid for $1 of GDP.
By 2007-2008, $4 to $5 of debt paid for $1 of GDP.
China in 2016 needs $6 to $8 of debt to pay for $1 of GDP.
In the 20th century, population doubled and was an organic driver of growth. Now population does not drive growth.
Innovation contributes to growth but productivity is falling.
Now we have a service economy not a productive one.
Innovation rates are falling dues to lack of R&D funding.
We cannot repay debt without growth.

As I like to say, if you are going to take on a large mortgage to buy property, make sure your cash flow from rents or employment is amortized for the same length of time that your debt is. The government can always raise taxes, but can you raise your income?

Property is an illusion by Satyajit Das

The End of growth as we know it by Satyajit Das - Key themes of his new book "A Banquet of Consequences"

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Southern Exposure

And Now a Closer Look with Seth Meyers

The Religious Right
Part of Putin's Playbook

Sure Thing

St. Germain - Sure Thing

Leverage

Perma What?

5 Year Study: Snow, Water, Ice
and Permafrost (SWIPA) April 25, 2017
Thanks to Peter Sinclair

Jennifer Hynes Interview
with Dahr Jamail April 2017

Climate Watch Shorts: Melting Permafrost

Chasing Methane' with Mark Bittman

Guessing Game

Thanks to Steve Saretsky, Realtor for his
Vancouver Real Estate Market Update February 2017

Oil-O-Nomics

Al Gore on the Solar Revolution - TED Talk Clip 1.50 min
2 solar home systems sold every minute in Bangladesh

Need for Speed

Charles Nenner Interview February 21, 2017

Market Crash Recession
by the 5th of November, 2017

Yellen Will Raise Rates in March
FEB 15, 2017 BNN Interview of Jim Rickards

March 15, 2017 is the Date to Watch
Everything Will Grind to a Halt
David Stockman FEB 27, 2017

Trumponomics

Moderated by Prof. Sebastian Edwards, a former chief economist of the World Bank; this discussion reveals the surprising insights of UCLA Anderson Forecast economists Prof. Ed Leamer and Prof. Jerry Nickelsburg, FEB 16, 2017

David Frum on Trump
"This is the most phoney baloney administration ever"

The Rolling Stones - Doom and Gloom

50 Shades

Vancouver Named Sugar Daddy Capital of Canada 2013

Government by Lottery

This "1st-time" homebuyers grant only serves the 'privileged,' says Nathanael Lauster UBC Associate Professor in Sociology

Inside 'House of Debt' with Amir Sufi

HARD EIGHT

Anti-Trade Vancouver Edition

Warning from the Bank of Canada:
Risk of household financial stress and a sharp correction in house prices.

Property is an illusion by Satyajit Das

The End of growth as we know it by Satyajit Das - Key themes of his new book "A Banquet of Consequences"

History, Charts &
Curated Readings

Archives

Categories

And Now a Closer Look with Seth Meyers

The Religious Right ​Part of Putin's Playbook

St. Germain - Sure Thing

​5 Year Study: Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost (SWIPA) April 25, 2017 ​Thanks to Peter Sinclair

Jennifer Hynes Interview with Dahr Jamail April 2017

Climate Watch Shorts: Melting Permafrost

Chasing Methane' with Mark Bittman

Thanks to Steve Saretsky, Realtor for his Vancouver Real Estate Market Update February 2017

Al Gore on the Solar Revolution - TED Talk Clip 1.50 min 2 solar home systems sold every minute in Bangladesh

Charles Nenner Interview February 21, 2017

Market Crash Recession by the 5th of November, 2017

Yellen Will Raise Rates in March FEB 15, 2017 BNN Interview of Jim Rickards

March 15, 2017 is the Date to Watch Everything Will Grind to a HaltDavid Stockman FEB 27, 2017

Trumponomics

Moderated by Prof. Sebastian Edwards, a former chief economist of the World Bank; this discussion reveals the surprising insights of UCLA Anderson Forecast economists Prof. Ed Leamer and Prof. Jerry Nickelsburg, FEB 16, 2017

David Frum on Trump "This is the most phoney baloney administration ever"

The Rolling Stones - Doom and Gloom

Vancouver Named Sugar Daddy Capital of Canada 2013

This "1st-time" homebuyers grant only serves the 'privileged,' says Nathanael Lauster UBC Associate Professor in Sociology

Inside 'House of Debt' with Amir Sufi

HARD EIGHT

Warning from the Bank of Canada: Risk of household financial stress and a sharp correction in house prices.

Property is an illusion by Satyajit Das

The End of growth as we know it by Satyajit Das - Key themes of his new book "A Banquet of Consequences"

History, Charts &Curated Readings

Archives

Categories

The Religious Right
Part of Putin's Playbook

5 Year Study: Snow, Water, Ice
and Permafrost (SWIPA) April 25, 2017
Thanks to Peter Sinclair

Jennifer Hynes Interview
with Dahr Jamail April 2017

Thanks to Steve Saretsky, Realtor for his
Vancouver Real Estate Market Update February 2017

Al Gore on the Solar Revolution - TED Talk Clip 1.50 min
2 solar home systems sold every minute in Bangladesh

Market Crash Recession
by the 5th of November, 2017

Yellen Will Raise Rates in March
FEB 15, 2017 BNN Interview of Jim Rickards

March 15, 2017 is the Date to Watch
Everything Will Grind to a Halt
David Stockman FEB 27, 2017

David Frum on Trump
"This is the most phoney baloney administration ever"

Warning from the Bank of Canada:
Risk of household financial stress and a sharp correction in house prices.

History, Charts &
Curated Readings