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"Last year (2019), nine Narwhal companies raised rounds exceeding $131 million CAD ($100 million USD). Over the last three years, the financial velocity required to make the list and the average financial velocity of companies on the list has increased, meaning companies are moving faster in securing capital. The number of Narwhals on track to become ‘Unicorns’ has also grown from seven to 42." Charles Plant, the founder of the Narwhal Project, FEB 4, 2020.

Three years ago, we at the Impact Centre initiated the Narwhal Project to conduct research to discover the root causes of Canada’s challenges in creating a world-leading innovation economy. We thought it would be useful at this juncture to summarize our findings. This Report  highlights some of the issues we have identified.

For fifty years, the federal and provincial governments have been spending billions to improve our innovation economy, but without performance improvements. The usual discussion is centered on Canadian businesses and their lacklustre performance on research and development (R&D) and intellectual property (IP) protection. In addition, our productivity has lagged relative to the US because of insufficient investments into productivity-enhancing technologies, along with the lack of available capital and talented people to grow technology firms.

But we believe that a critical challenge is our inability to scale companies to a world-class size. Larger companies boast several advantages. They have greater revenue per employee, pay better salaries, undertake more R&D, and take out more patents.

We lack large companies, particularly in the technology sector. We have only one Unicorn (with perhaps another one qualifying but not listed as such at the date of this publication) compared with over 150 in the US. Few tech companies in Canada grow large enough to go public. This means less R&D, fewer patents, and, ultimately, lower income per capita and productivity.

Perhaps the solution to our innovation challenge is not more R&D and more patents, but rather scaling and building of companies. But why are we challenged do this in the tech field? What we have found is that:

• Few Canadian companies are founded in large consumer markets capable of generating the desired scale.
• We invest less per company relative to the US.
• Canadian firms spend less on marketing and sales (M&S), activities that are critical to building the customer base.
• We have fewer qualified people in marketing functions.

The underinvestment and underspending result in lower growth rates for Canadian tech firms compared to their US counterparts. Fundamentally then, Canadian firms do not look as attractive as potential investments due to slower growth. Because of this, they do not attract large amounts of late-stage capital and are often sold before they can scale to worldclass size.

All of these factors converge to create serious barriers to growth of Canadian companies, thus necessitating smarter and more strategic thinking about how we will overcome these challenges.

Full Report Here

Top 3 Technology Trends for 2020 | YBF Ventures

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While we wait for the January real estate data to come in next week, here is an update on the visualization of global temperature change over the last 2019 years.   ​"This reconstruction includes data from a wide variety of proxy records such as tree rings, cave deposits, corals, etc. The warming over the past 50 years is stark compared to the variations that have occurred naturally over the last 2000 years. It is not normal. The invention of the efficient steam engine in 1790 by James Watt kick-started the industrial revolution and our reliance on burning fossil fuels for energy." JAN 30, 2020 by Ed Hawkins (Climate Lab Book​)        Climate scientist in the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) at the University of Reading. IPCC AR5 Contributing Author.

Abstract from Nature Geoscience, July 2019
Multidecadal surface temperature changes may be forced by natural as well as anthropogenic factors, or arise unforced from the climate system. Distinguishing these factors is essential for estimating sensitivity to multiple climatic forcings and the amplitude of the unforced variability. Here we present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a global collection of temperature-sensitive palaeoclimate records. Our reconstructions display synchronous multidecadal temperature fluctuations that are coherent with one another and with fully forced millennial model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 across the Common Era. A substantial portion of pre-industrial (1300–1800 CE) variability at multidecadal timescales is attributed to volcanic aerosol forcing.

​Reconstructions and simulations qualitatively agree on the amplitude of the unforced global mean multidecadal temperature variability, thereby increasing confidence in future projections of climate change on these timescales. The largest warming trends at timescales of 20 years and longer occur during the second half of the twentieth century, highlighting the unusual character of the warming in recent decades.

Our Changing Climate: learning from the past to inform future choices
The Royal Society Kavli Lecture given by Professor Ed Hawkins. May 2019

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Today we see fear in the headlines. Fear in the Party of Trump (Bolton's book is leaked), fear in the contagion pipeline ("At this time, it’s unclear how easily or sustainably this virus [Coronavirus] is spreading between people...” the CDC says. [2700 confirmed case and 60 million Chinese residents in lockdown provinces] via CNN JAN 27th) and fear in the stock market indexes (1st chart left). The second chart to the left shows the "un-growth" of Canadian Labour Productivity since the peak in the 1980's punctuated by two major global stock market selloffs (fear). In OCT 1987 "Black Monday", every major world market experienced a decline. Measured in USD, 8 declined by 20-29%, 3 by 30-39%, 3 by more than 40%. In OCT 2007 through MAR 2009 (17 months) during the Global Financial SubPrime collapse, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 53%. ​

​Chuck Schumer speaks following leak of Bolton book excerpt

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...IN AUSTRALIA While we wait for the release of the December real estate data, let's acknowledge the Canadian firefighters serving in Australia. Dozens of Canadians have been there during the holidays helping out and more are on their way by month's end. ​"...this is the first time since 2009 that Canadian firefighters have been sent to Australia. Australian crews helped in B.C. during record-setting wildfire seasons in 2017 and 2018." CBC News Dec 27, 2019

Tracking Climate Extremes Around The World In 2019
NBC News NOW - Dec 24, 2019

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​The CBRE Group, Inc. trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “CBRE.” is the world’s largest commercial real estate services (2018). Their recently released study "Scoring Canadian Tech Talent" provide insights into how the growth in demand for tech talent is impacting cities and real estate markets across Canada. ​ CBRE Report Snippets Record commercial and residential real estate demand and an office construction boom in several markets. High-Tech sector GDP growth = 3x the pace of the overall economy over last 5 years. Tech industry accounts for 17.1% of major office leasing activity since start of 2018. Immigration policies have produced an abundant, accessible source of tech talent.  Top Canadian universities produce highly educated tech workers in specialized fields eg: AI research and multimedia production.  U.S. companies can tap into high quality talent at a less prohibitive cost when accounting for the discounted CAD$.

The foundations of the APT tax proposal—a small, uniform tax on all economic transactions—involve simplification, base broadening, reductions in marginal tax rates, the elimination of tax and information returns and the automatic collection of tax revenues at the payment source. The APT approach would extend the tax base from income, consumption and wealth to all transactions.

Think about the desirability and feasibility of replacing the present system of personal and corporate income, sales, excise, capital gains, import and export duties, gift and estate taxes with a single comprehensive revenue neutral Automated Payment Transaction (APT) tax.

In its simplest form, the APT tax consists of a flat tax levied on all transactions. The tax is automatically assessed and collected when transactions are settled through the electronic technology of the banking/ payments system.

The APT tax introduces progressivity through the tax base since the volume of final payments includes exchanges of titles to property and is therefore more highly skewed than the conventional income or consumption tax base.

The wealthy carry out a disproportionate share of total transactions and therefore bear a disproportionate burden of the tax despite its flat rate structure.

The automated recording of all APT tax payments by firms and individuals creates a degree of transparency and perceived fairness that induces greater tax compliance. Also, the tax has lower administrative and compliance cost.

If we want to take on the challenges of the 21st century, ie: the urgent generational "moonshots" facing us, then tech sector - take on the challenge of tax reform. 

"The global financial crime wave is no accident Financial crime is a feature of our global financial system not a bug." said pioneering economist Susan Strange. ​November 28, 2018 by Naomi Fowler

Financial Secrecy Index - 2018 Results

Canada ranks 21 out of 112 jurisdictions after Switzerland (1), the USA (2) and the Cayman Islands (3).

​“Canada and the U.S. are the two most lax jurisdictions in the world when it comes to the rules for preventing the incorporation of anonymous shell companies. What’s more, corporate service providers operating in those two countries are less compliant than those operating in Ghana, Lithuania, or Barbados, and follow laxer rules than those in Malaysia or the Cayman Islands.”

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​"Chinese Yuan makes up a lower portion of global reserves than the British Pound and even the Swiss Franc, and is just ahead of Canada." Hat Tip to ​@anilvohra69 for the note and graphic in my Twitter feed. US dollar credit to non-bank borrowers outside the United States grew by 4% year on year  to reach $11.9 trillion at end-June 2019. This represents a slight acceleration relative to the 3% annual growth rate observed at end-2018. Bank of International Settlements  October 2019 ​Foreign borrowers of USD denominated debt is accelerating. What gets borrowed in USD has to be repaid in USD and as the USD rises in value, so does the demand for USD. I update my USD vs CAD Canadian Housing Price chart as well as my Canadian Household Debt  chart every month. Our chronic negative Canadian Balance of Trade means that OUR debt obligations continue to provide more stimulus to offshore than onshore producers.​ A rising USD is not good for most Canadians.

INVESTOPEDIA KEY TAKEAWAYS, July 2019
​
> A dollar shortage occurs when a country spends more U.S. dollars on imports than it receives on exports.

> Since the USD is used to price many goods globally, and is used in many international trade transactions, a dollar shortage can limit a country's ability to grow or trade effectively.

> Most countries try to maintain a reserve of currencies, like U.S. dollars or other major currencies, which can be used to buy imported goods, manage the country's exchange rate, pay international debts, or make international transactions or investments.​

​Pierre Trudeau’s Washington Press Club speech
“Living next to you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, if I can call it that, one is affected by every twitch and grunt.” Pierre Elliot Trudeau, the March 1969 speech to the Washington Press Club.

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While we wait for the October real estate data to start coming out later this week, BNN yesterday reported on Warren Buffett's plan to invest in a new Alberta Wind Farm. "The Rattlesnake Ridge Wind Project" will be located southwest of Medicine Hat and produce enough energy to supply the equivalent of 79,000 homes. Apparently demand is bankable because an "unnamed large Canadian corporate customer has signed a long-term power purchase agreement for the majority of the Rattlesnake Ridge energy output..." The Government of Canada chart mashup shows Alberta to be the 3rd largest renewable energy supplier via wind energy in Canada, and BNN goes on to report that Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway Energy "...also owns AltaLink, the regulated transmission company which supplies electricity to more than 85 per cent of the Alberta population."

​Warren Buffett's firm invests $200M in Alberta wind project
Bill Christensen, V.P. corporate development at BHE Canada, discusses an Alberta wind farm that the company has invested in. BNN Bloomberg OCT 29, 2019

​Neil Young - Four Strong Winds (Live at Farm Aid 1993)
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As the report concludes in part: ​"Governments must stop spending financial and political capital to further the interests of one industry whose aspirations will literally devastate the planet, at the expense of all of us." NEWS ITEMS: OCT 2019 CNN: Russian scientists say they've found the highest-ever 'flares' of methane in Arctic waters OCT 2019 TruthOut.org: ExxonMobil Is Still Bankrolling Climate Science Deniers SEP 2019 CBC News: How 'organized climate change denial' shapes public opinion on global warming. FEB 2019 University of Washington: Early spring rain boosts methane from thawing permafrost by 30 percent JAN 2019 Scientific American: Greenland Has Yet Another Methane Leak JUN 2018 American Geophysical Union: Very Strong Atmospheric Methane Growth in the 4 Years 2014–2017 SEP 2016 Engineering & Technology Magazine: Arctic methane levels reach new heights.

Methane: The Arctic's hidden climate threat.
Natalia Shakhova's latest paper. Jun 23, 2019​

​Even with existing levels of warming and melting of the Arctic region, submarine methane releases linked to clathrate breakdown have been discovered,[32] and demonstrated to be leaking into the atmosphere.[5][34][35][36] A 2011 Russian survey off the East Siberian coast found plumes wider than one kilometer releasing methane directly into the atmosphere.[32] According to monitoring carried out in 2003/2004 by Shakhova et al., the surface layer of shelf water in the East Siberian Sea and Laptev Sea was supersaturated up to 2500% relative to then present average atmospheric methane content of 1.85 ppm. Anomalously high concentrations (up to 154 nM or 4400% supersaturation) of dissolved methane in the bottom layer of shelf water suggest that the bottom layer is somehow affected by near-bottom sources. Considering the possible formation mechanisms of such plumes, their studies indicated thermoabrasion and the effects of shallow gas or gas hydrates release.[4] Wikipedia Arctic Methane Emissions Page

New Arctic lakes could soon be a major source of atmospheric methane. August 20, 2018​

For centuries, a massive store of carbon has been locked underground in the Arctic's permanently frozen soil known as permafrost. As Earth's climate continues to warm, that carbon has begun to leach into the atmosphere, the result of microbes waking up and digesting once-frozen organic materials. A new NASA-funded study focuses on a mechanism that could accelerate the release of this atmospheric carbon, the result of thermokarst lakes. These lakes form when thawing permafrost causes the ground to slump, creating a depression that collects rain and snowmelt and perpetuates a cycle of further permafrost thaw. NASA August 2018

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​The bigger influence on Canadian real estate values will be the next decade of our reactions to the exponential growth in climate problems ("very high confidence") global migration pressures and the inevitable expansion towards technological solutions and a new generation of research and development; a new generation of critical thinking.  ​“A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” that is, "Science advances one funeral at a time" Max Planck 1949

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1. Our Globally Changing Climate
KEY FINDINGS

1. The global climate continues to change rapidly compared to the pace of the natural changes in climate that have occurred throughout Earth’s history. Trends in globally-averaged temperature, sea-level rise, upper-ocean heat content, land based ice melt, and other climate variables provide consistent evidence of a warming planet. These observed trends are robust, and have been confirmed by independent research groups around the world. (Very high confidence)
   
   
2. The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation and extreme heat events are increasing in most regions of the world. These trends are consistent with expected physical responses to a warming climate and with climate model studies, although models tend to underestimate the observed trends. The frequency and intensity of such extreme events will very likely continue to rise in the future. Trends for some other types of extreme events, such as floods, droughts, and severe storms, have more regional characteristics. (Very high confidence)
   
   
3. Many lines of evidence demonstrate that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are primarily responsible for the observed climate changes in the industrial era. There are no alternative explanations, and no natural cycles are found in the observational record that can explain the observed changes in climate. (Very high confidence)
   
   
4. Global climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades primarily on the amount of greenhouse (heat trapping) gases emitted globally and the sensitivity of Earth’s climate to those emissions. (Very high confidence)
   
   
5. Natural variability, including El Niño events and other recurring patterns of ocean-atmosphere interactions, have important, but limited influences on global and regional climate over timescales ranging from months to decades. (Very high confidence)
   
   
6. Longer-term climate records indicate that average temperatures in recent decades over much of the world have been higher than at any other time in the past 1700 years or more. ( High confidence)

​1.1 Introduction
Since the Third U.S. National Climate assessment (NCA3) was published in May 2014, new observations along with multiple lines of evidence have strengthened the conclusion that Earth’s climate is changing at a pace and in a pattern not explainable by natural influences.

​Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg chastised world leaders Monday, Sep. 23, for failing younger generations by not taking sufficient steps to stop climate change. "You have stolen my childhood and my dreams with your empty words," Thunberg said at the United Nations Climate Action Summit in New York. "You're failing us, but young people are starting to understand your betrayal. The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you choose to fail us, I say we will never forgive you," she added. Thunberg traveled to the U.S. by sailboat last month so she could appear at the summit. She and other youth activists led international climate strikes on Friday in an attempt to garner awareness ahead of the UN's meeting of political and business leaders.
PBS NewsHour Sep 23, 2019

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The charts from visualcapitalist.com show the global breadth and momentum increase in Chinese shipping. In 2006, only 3 of the top 10 ports were located in China. In 2019 that ratio grew to 7/10. Canada does not have any ports in the top 20 and according to 2015-16 StatsCan Data "the Chinese fleet, national & foreign flag combined, is ranked 3rd in terms of dead weight tonnage. Canada is ranked 29th." A conversation with a neighbour inspired this post.  Among other projections, the Neighbour thought that Canada is due for a big increase in manufacturing volume. I countered that thought with the reality of my chart on Household Debt which includes a plot of Federal Direct Investment which clearly shows that FDI has been negative for the last 20 years and the spread between investment into and out of Canada has grown much wider in the last 3 years to 2018 year-end. That's a solid trend. We Canadians in less than a generation have become dependable and dependent (on China) consumers.

From: mortgagebrokernews.ca Sept 16, 2019

The Credit Counselling Society also reported that on average, Canadians are carrying a debt load of $30,000 each – far above the $12,000 level just 20 years ago.

“Canadians continue to rely on their credit cards or lines of credit to supplement costs of living,” CCS president Scott Hannah said.

“If the economy continues to slow amidst trade tensions and other factors, Canadians need to prepare now for a potential recession in the future.”

Hannah also cited the latest survey of employed Canadians by the Canadian Payroll Association, which found that 1 in 3 consumers currently hold credit card debt, and 38% will need more than a year to pay off said debt.

Additionally, 1 out of 3 Canadians indicated that their debt loads have increased since last year, and that they are spending more than their net income. As much as 43% are forced to live paycheque to paycheque, while fully 83% confessed anxiety over growing daily living costs.

“We are not surprised by these latest statistics, as we continue to hear from Canadians, who are having difficulty managing their rising debt levels and how to effectively manage the increasing costs of living without relying on credit,” Hannah stated.