chpc.biz
  • Home
    • Directory
  • Chart Book
    • 6 Canadian Metros
    • Sales Listings
    • MAR-MOI
    • Housing Starts
    • Vancouver Housing
    • Calgary Housing
    • Toronto Housing
    • Compare Toronto & Vancouver
    • Canadian Housing in USD
    • Housing Price Momentum
    • TSX Indexes
    • Millionaire Metric
    • Real Price of Gold & RE
    • Real Price of Housing
    • Real Interest Rates
    • Real 10yr Rate
    • Interest Rate Spread
    • Yield Curve
  • Plunge-O-Meter
    • Yield Calculator
  • Earnings Employment
    • Household Debt
    • Affordability
    • Demographia
    • Census
  • History Readings
  • Contact
    • Data Sources
    • Featured Links
    • Terms of Service

3 Vancouver Views

9/6/2016

 

3 Charts of Vancouver Housing Prices to August 31, 2016
Monthly HPI & Average vs Inflation Adjusted Projection
See also this reader supplied prescient
Elliot Wave Chart from May 13, 2016
​

1) My chart based on the REBGV HPI® dataset.
SOURCE and HPI Explained
Vancouver Housing Prices
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
2) REBGV Chart using average prices (not HPI®)
SOURCE
Vancouver Housing Prices
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
3) Average Annual Peak Price CHART SOURCE
I think the source author is YVR Housing
​If you can confirm, please do.
Vancouver Housing Prices
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
The Forces that Cause the Bubble to Burst
​

The bubble bursts when excessive risk-taking becomes pervasive throughout the housing system. This happens while the supply of housing is still increasing. In other words, demand decreases while supply increases, resulting in a fall in prices.

This pervasiveness of risk throughout the system is triggered by losses suffered by homeowners, mortgage lenders, mortgage investors and property investors. Those losses could be triggered by a number of things, including:

1. An increase in interest rates that puts homeownership out of reach for some buyers and, in some instances, makes the home a person currently owns unaffordable, leading to default and foreclosure, which eventually adds to supply.

2. A downturn in general economic activity that leads to less disposable income, job loss and/or fewer available jobs, which decreases the demand for housing.

3. Demand is exhausted, bringing supply and demand into equilibrium and slowing the rapid pace of home price appreciation that some homeowners, particularly speculators, count on to make their purchases affordable or profitable. When rapid price appreciation stagnates, those who count on it to afford their homes long term might lose their homes, bringing more supply to the market.

The bottom line is that when loses mount, credit standards are tightened, easy mortgage borrowing is no longer available, demand decreases, supply increases, speculators leave the market and prices fall.

Conclusion
A simple and important principle of finance is mean reversion. While housing markets are not as subject to bubbles as some markets, housing bubbles do exist. Long-term averages provide a good indication of where housing prices will eventually end up during periods of rapid appreciation followed by stagnant or falling prices. The same is true for periods of below average price appreciation.


SOURCE Investopedia by Barry Nielsen, September 13, 2014 


GO TO THE MOST RECENT BLOG POST

 

Follow @Brian_Ripley

Comments are closed.
    Follow @Brian_Ripley

    RSS Feed



    History, Charts &
    Curated Readings

    "Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement; and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana Vol. I, Reason in Common Sense  

    Archives

    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012
    January 2012

    Categories

    All
    AI
    Airbnb
    Apt
    Austerity
    Australia
    Balance Of Trade
    BNN
    Bob Hoye
    Bubbles
    Budget
    Bulls
    Busts
    Calgary
    Canada
    Capital Flight
    Case Shiller
    Case Study
    Charlie Rose
    China
    Chris Kimble
    Climate
    Cmhc
    Commodities
    Cpi
    Credit
    Cullen Roche
    Currency
    Debt
    Deflation
    Demographics
    Dubai
    Employment
    Energy
    Europe
    Exports
    Fair Value
    Flippers
    Future
    FX
    GDP
    Greenspan
    Hong Kong
    Hyperinflation
    Id
    Imports
    Interest Rates
    Japan
    Labour
    Martin Armstrong
    MM
    Money Laundering
    Mortgage
    New York
    OECD
    Olympic Village
    Pmi
    Productivity
    Recession
    REIT
    Rent Or Buy
    Russia
    Savers
    Savings
    Solar Cycle
    Stock Market
    Super Rich
    Tax
    Tesla
    Toronto
    Trade
    Trump
    TV
    U.K.
    Unemployment
    U.S.
    Vancouver
    Wages
    War
    Weather
    Whale Watching
    Yield

    "History, real solemn history, I cannot be interested in.... I read it a little as a duty; but it tells me nothing that does not either vex or weary me. The quarrels of popes and kings, with wars and pestilences in every page; the men all so good for nothing, and hardly any women at all - it is very tiresome." Jane Austen spoken by Catherine Morland in 'Northanger Abbey' 



FREE TRIAL DISCOUNT
Chart Pattern Research



ASK FOR A SUBSCRIPTION TRIAL OFFER
Institutional Advisors Financial Market Advisory Since 1980
 

 

WEEBLY Website Builder

 

HISTORY READINGS

 

chpc.biz CHARTBOOK

 

PLUNGE-O-METER

 

chpc.biz Real Estate Yield Calculator

 

Update List Here

 

Add to SocialTrade  


Follow @Brian_Ripley

Home | Directory | Chart Book | Earnings | Plunge-O-Meter | History & Readings | Contact
Picture
​This website & blog was built with Weebly; a very easy to use drag and drop cloud based app. TRY IT FOR FREE 
​

Picture
Brian Ripley's Canadian Housing Price Charts & Blog for #Vancouver #Calgary #Edmonton #Toronto #Ottawa #Montreal Real Estate Prices, Sales & Inventory with Plunge-O-Nomic Post Peak Price Action featuring the PLUNGE-O-METER
If you want to be notified when I update this site, go to:  twitter.com/Brian_Ripley and click "Follow".

ADVERTISE YOUR REAL ESTATE FOR SALE TO THIS INFORMED AUDIENCE
Thousands of Unique Visitors and Tens of Thousands of Page Views Every Month (TRAFFIC CHART)
Try my Real Estate YIELD CALCULATOR to quickly analyze your current porfolio or compare a potential new purchase against a 10 year government bond or determine the ideal mortgage size to get the best return on your investment. 

CHPC.biz (this site) is a SAFE BROWSING SITE according to Google's Safe Browsing Diagnostic

✕