HISTORY & READINGS at Brian Ripley's Canadian Housing Price Charts & Plunge-O-Meter

Global Temperature Change

1/31/2020

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While we wait for the January real estate data to come in next week, here is an update on the visualization of global temperature change over the last 2019 years.

"This reconstruction includes data from a wide variety of proxy records such as tree rings, cave deposits, corals, etc. The warming over the past 50 years is stark compared to the variations that have occurred naturally over the last 2000 years. It is not normal. The invention of the efficient steam engine in 1790 by James Watt kick-started the industrial revolution and our reliance on burning fossil fuels for energy." JAN 30, 2020 by Ed Hawkins (Climate Lab Book)
Climate scientist in the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) at the University of Reading. IPCC AR5 Contributing Author.

Abstract from Nature Geoscience, July 2019
Multidecadal surface temperature changes may be forced by natural as well as anthropogenic factors, or arise unforced from the climate system. Distinguishing these factors is essential for estimating sensitivity to multiple climatic forcings and the amplitude of the unforced variability. Here we present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a global collection of temperature-sensitive palaeoclimate records. Our reconstructions display synchronous multidecadal temperature fluctuations that are coherent with one another and with fully forced millennial model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 across the Common Era. A substantial portion of pre-industrial (1300–1800 CE) variability at multidecadal timescales is attributed to volcanic aerosol forcing.

Reconstructions and simulations qualitatively agree on the amplitude of the unforced global mean multidecadal temperature variability, thereby increasing confidence in future projections of climate change on these timescales. The largest warming trends at timescales of 20 years and longer occur during the second half of the twentieth century, highlighting the unusual character of the warming in recent decades.

Our Changing Climate: learning from the past to inform future choices
The Royal Society Kavli Lecture given by Professor Ed Hawkins. May 2019

Deflation notebook

1/27/2020

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Today we see fear in the headlines. Fear in the Party of Trump (Bolton's book is leaked), fear in the contagion pipeline ("At this time, it’s unclear how easily or sustainably this virus [Coronavirus] is spreading between people...” the CDC says. [2700 confirmed case and 60 million Chinese residents in lockdown provinces] via CNN JAN 27th) and fear in the stock market indexes (1st chart left).

The second chart to the left shows the "un-growth" of Canadian Labour Productivity since the peak in the 1980's punctuated by two major global stock market selloffs (fear). In OCT 1987 "Black Monday", every major world market experienced a decline. Measured in USD, 8 declined by 20-29%, 3 by 30-39%, 3 by more than 40%.

In OCT 2007 through MAR 2009 (17 months) during the Global Financial SubPrime collapse, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 53%.

Chuck Schumer speaks following leak of Bolton book excerpt

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer addressed reporters Monday on Day 6 of the Senate impeachment trial of U.S. President Donald Trump, after an excerpt from a book written by former National Security Advisor John Bolton was made public. Global News JAN 27, 2020

Global Temperature Change

Our Changing Climate: learning from the past to inform future choices
The Royal Society Kavli Lecture given by Professor Ed Hawkins. May 2019

Deflation notebook

Chuck Schumer speaks following leak of Bolton book excerpt

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Global Temperature Change

Our Changing Climate: learning from the past to inform future choices The Royal Society Kavli Lecture given by Professor Ed Hawkins. May 2019

Deflation notebook

​Chuck Schumer speaks following leak of Bolton book excerpt

History, Charts & Curated Readings

Archives

Categories

Our Changing Climate: learning from the past to inform future choices
The Royal Society Kavli Lecture given by Professor Ed Hawkins. May 2019

Chuck Schumer speaks following leak of Bolton book excerpt