"History, real solemn history, I cannot be interested in.... I read it a little as a duty; but it tells me nothing that does not either vex or weary me. The quarrels of popes and kings, with wars and pestilences in every page; the men all so good for nothing, and hardly any women at all - it is very tiresome." Jane Austen spoken by Catherine Morland in 'Northanger Abbey'
What is the point of saving for investment if the real yield (nominal yield less CPI = NRoI) or Net Return on Investment is zero(1), or worse if one has to pay the bank to hold one's deflating stock-pile of cash like paying a storage company to store one's old copies of VHS movie tapes after everyone has moved on to Netflix, Hulu and peer to peer file sharing torrents.
Not only does cash (money) 'feel' as if it has no value but realtors and developers also don't know what the value is of the product they are selling, because their value of money is being defined by a market seized by mania that is willing to pay more today than was spent to purchase yesterday and all along the way, agents in the market and government give their approval to a dynamic that will reach a limit (if not already reached in certain markets) UNLESS earnings improve.
At street level in Canada earnings have been topping with the commodity crash but in many cases, earnings reliability are not even necessary to use in the calculus of risk analysis when granting a mortgage or consumer loan. We should be ashamed of ourselves, but instead we blame others.
As CIBC economist Benjamin Tal said, he is concerned that subprime lending is “driving the bus.”
At the national level it's worse; net Federal Direct Investment widened dramatically in 2015 Y/Y meaning that Canadian investment capital would rather look for yield offshore than on. We can't even invest in ourselves (Net FDI has been negative for the last nearly 20 years); we continue to increase our borrowing so that we can consume to 'maintain' our lifestyle.
Even people without money via savings and low employment earnings are buying property - how would they know the value of money? Well they will find out along with their extended families the difference between equity and debt in an aging speculative triumph.
BMO Millennial Home Buyer Survey (March 2016)
Ipsos Reid - BDO Poll (May 2016)
Condo Construction Subject To Red Alert From Royal Bank
Gregor Robertson Mayor of Vancouver, May 30, 2016
Magic Bus - The Who 1968
I don't care how much I pay
The Vancouver housing prices are following a price channel, and look to be forming an ABCD pattern.
How Stupid is Vancouver’s Real Estate Market?
While we wait for the April real estate data to dribble in, let's look at the commodity sector that peaked in 2011 and is now threatening to break a major uptrend channel and possibly retest the 2006 lows; a time when the Yield Curve inverted and soon after the BoC and U.S. Fed etal went on a ZIRP to NIRP bender in an effort to spark inflation. Clearly low rates have not produced CPI inflation but a speculative frenzy for Yield.
The top panel in the mashup above is the Thomson Reuters Commodity Index chart since the 1980's provided by Kimble Charting Solutions. The commodity index is made up of 18% Energy, 24% Metals, 29% Softs and 29% Agriculture.
The bottom panel is from ZeroHedge and their post underscores that energy junk bonds are at an all time default rate high.
...the energy high-yield default has soared to a record 13% rate, surpassing the 9.7% mark set in 1999, according to Fitch Ratings.
"...energy companies now account for approximately 20 percent of the junk bond market." Michael Snyder, Global Research, December 2014
AND THIS from Bloomberg May 1, 2016 Saudi Arabia's determination to keep pumping more oil into global markets brings to mind its former oil minister Sheikh Yamani, who said back in 2000 that the Stone Age did not end for a lack of stones, and the oil age will not end for a lack of oil.Those working for him at the time, interpreted this as a warning to OPEC about the pursuit of high oil prices: namely, that it would just speed up the development of alternative technologies and drive away customers, leaving oil sitting beneath the ground without buyers.Sixteen years later, the kingdom's leaders seem to have heeded his warning. Both Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and oil minister Ali al-Naimi have said they will no longer subsidize high-cost oil production by limiting supply. If there's oil to be left under the ground, they're determined it won't be Saudi Arabia's.
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"Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement; and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana Vol. I, Reason in Common Sense
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