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Seasonal Cyclical Secular 

9/30/2014

 
Case Shiller July 2014CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
Is it Secular?

The U.S. Case-Shiller 20 City Composite housing data to July 2014 were released and looking at the M/M and Y/Y charts it's easy to see that seasonal buying has again collapsed as we batten down the hatches against the coming winter.

The 2014 M/M peak failed to breakout from under the 2013 M/M peak and the 2014 Y/Y momentum has been in a down trend since 2013 as well.

The downturn is seasonal for sure and looks like a cyclical down trend as well with lower highs being put in after the run up out of the 2009 Pit of Gloom.

If U.S. housing is in a secular down trend, it began way back in 2004 (see the Y/Y data) and we should see momentum attempting a test of the Pit of Gloom. That would take a big shift in sentiment in the animal spirits.

What could cause that?
  • Credit market distress? 
  • Currency revaluations?
  • Negative income statements?
  • Amortization fatigue?
  • Rereading Orwell?

Commuter Lament

9/23/2014

 
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Savills' Thumbnail
Real Estate Evaluation

  • Shanghai, Moscow & Mumbai
    Potentially over-valued with weak or falling rents.
  • London, Singapore, Hong Kong & Paris
    Fully valued, static prices or trending down. 
  • New York & Sydney
    Becoming fully valued but still rising at slowing rates. 
  • Tokyo
    Recovering, still trending modestly upward.
  • Dubai & Rio de Janeiro
    Growing strongly but volatile.
Commute times say as much about the locations in which different employees choose to live as it does about the nature of the transport networks. In New York, where staff favour living more centrally, the average commute is just 19 minutes. By contrast, the more dispersed nature of Rio, Mumbai (3 times longer to commute than NY) and Shanghai means that people spend longer commuting, despite faster travel times on a per kilometre basis. Here, administration level staff live far from the centre, priced out of the best neighbourhoods and reflecting income inequality. (Source savills.com)

Overslept, so tired,
if late, get fired.
Why bother?
Why the pain?
Just go home,
do it again.


The Commuter’s Lament/A Close Shave by Norman Colp as public art in the tunnel connecting the NY Port Authority to the Times Square subway station. 

Doctor Who "Gridlock" Scene 6

Size Matters

9/20/2014

 
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Intentional Communities

Notice in the upper chart of Canadian Disposable Income that "Economic Families" have the advantage in maintaining a spending lifestyle over "Unattached Individuals".

Size matters but fundamentally overpriced housing in Canadian metros is being fueled by planners thinking in small commodity units built for the transient. 

Perhaps it's time to start adding high rise self managed purpose built communal buildings to our urban housing stock.

Gilded Age

9/12/2014

 

Left, Right or Down

The national wire service press subscribers refer to the Broadbent Institute's September 2014 study "Inequality and the Fading of Redistributive Politics" Edited by Keith Banting and John Myles (see the quoted paragraphs and link to the source material below) as being "left leaning" I am willing to bet that the bottom quintiles of earners are more concerned with the direction of "down".

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Canada’s poorest 10% of the population saw their net worth drop some 150% since 2005. They have an average net worth of -$5,100, meaning on average the lowest earners have $5,100 more debt than assets, down from -$2,000 in 2005.
(Huffingtonpost.ca)
In the U.S. those in the lowest 20% quintile had a negative median net worth of -$6,029 in 2011, compared with -$905 in 2000. Those in the 2nd lowest quintile saw their assets drop by nearly half to a median of $7,263 in 2011 from $14,319 in 2000. (CNBC.com)

Deep and Persistent Wealth Inequality in Canada
Broadbent Institute September 2014


The Fading Redistributive Impact: Inequality and Poverty After four decades of relative stability, income inequality in Canada surged upward in the latter half of the 1990s. Between the mid-1990s and the mid-2000s, inequality increased more in Canada than in other OECD countries, and the redistributive impact of the tax-transfer system in Canada declined (OECD 2008, fig. 4.7). As we saw at the outset, by the mid-2000s, the redistributive impact of Canadian taxes and transfers was among the smallest among OECD countries (OECD 2011, 271).

The big surge in market income inequality began during the recession of the early 1980s and continued until the end of the 1990s. Rising market inequality reflects several distinct but powerful trends. Most attention has focused on the stunning rise in the proportion of income captured by the top 1 percent of income-earners, reflecting changing norms about compensation for the highly paid (Saez and Veal 2005; Fortin et al. 2012). The share of income captured by the top 1 percent is now approaching the levels reached in the “Gilded Age” of the 1920s and the Great Depression of the 1930s, generating an intense debate about the division between the rich and the rest, which was highlighted by the Occupy Movement in 2011. 


However, other trends have also mattered. One is the loss of solid middle-income jobs as a result of a combination of technological change, outsourcing, and declining unionization. According to one analysis, “the young and the poorly educated have borne the brunt of these forces, but significant numbers of those previously in the middle and lower middle of the occupational skill and wage distribution have also been adversely affected” (Fortin at al. 2012, 133). 

Finally, social changes have been important. Women and men increasingly choose spouses with similar educational levels, a process known as marital homogamy, or educational assortative mating. This trend tends to increase family income inequality as high-income earners increasingly marry each other and lower-income earners do likewise. Figure 1.1 captures the impact of these wider trends, demonstrating the strong rise in the real income of families at the 80th and 90th percentile, compared to the stagnation in the incomes of families in the middle and lower levels of the income distribution.
Read the whole Broadbent Institute study with charts here.

Bill Maher - Wealth Inequality in America

Housekeeping

9/8/2014

 
PicturePhoto Credit morguefile.com
This site continues to grow in content and as it does I need to manage my time by keeping the navigation as direct as possible and my publishing procedure of charts, data and comments as simple as possible.

I have replaced the Housing Summary page with a Directory page that I can easily update on the fly when needed. 

For those of you who were getting the Housing Summary updates via RSS please switch your RSS feed to the History Readings page.

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    "Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement; and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana Vol. I, Reason in Common Sense​​
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  • Home
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    • Millionaire Metric
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    • Yield Calculator
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