HISTORY & READINGS at Brian Ripley's Canadian Housing Price Charts & Plunge-O-Meter

Sentiment Reversal

11/28/2016

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Vancouver detached housing prices peaked in July of 2016. Sentiment shift is accelerating via observers on their keyboards reporting from their neighborhoods in real time.

I looked at a new detached listing in my hood a couple of weeks ago on a rainy weekend. It's still unsold at close to $2mil despite the steady stream of lookie-loos and pent-up demand for a SFD close to downtown and amenities; perhaps because the list price is 31% above the total current (July 2015) BC Assessed value and because it's very old construction requiring even more money, time and effort to bring it up to modern standards. The structure is only valued at 18% of the BC assessor's total value. Flippers are few and far between. Perhaps fundamentals really do matter.

Meanwhile as the photos above indicate, vendors are repricing lower, and buyers are bidding below assessment. The only flipping that buyers are doing now is in their point of view. Hat tip to FIVRE604

Trumped

11/14/2016

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I have to get this off my chest before I return my attention back to the turmoil brewing that is real estate in Canada because the Trump Presidency will be headed by a psychologically defined Psychopath and his vice president who will be one step away from the oval office also "believes it his 'calling' to legislate his religious views into public policy."

Bye bye secular humanist civil government; hello to religious and political ideologues.

It sounds to me like the Caliphate has reached North America under a different Bannon... err... I mean banner.

Here is the Hare Psychopathy Checklist. "Each of the twenty items is given a score of 0, 1, or 2 based on how well it applies to the subject being tested. A prototypical psychopath would receive a maximum score of 40, while someone with absolutely no psychopathic traits or tendencies would receive a score of zero. A score of 30 or above qualifies a person for a diagnosis of psychopathy. People with no criminal backgrounds normally score around 5. Many non-psychopathic criminal offenders score around 22."

01. glib and superficial charm
02. grandiose (exaggeratedly high) estimation of self
03. need for stimulation
04. pathological lying
05. cunning and manipulativeness
06. lack of remorse or guilt
07. shallow affect (superficial emotional responsiveness)
08. callousness and lack of empathy
09. parasitic lifestyle
10. poor behavioral controls
11. sexual promiscuity
12. early behavior problems
13. lack of realistic long-term goals
14. impulsivity
15. irresponsibility
16. failure to accept responsibility for own actions
17. many short-term marital relationships
18. juvenile delinquency
19. revocation of conditional release
20. criminal versatility

Does anything sound familiar?

And here is Umberto Eco's definition of Facism from Wikipedia:

In his 1995 essay "Eternal Fascism", Umberto Eco lists fourteen general properties of fascist ideology. [UR-Fascism] He argues that it is not possible to organise these into a coherent system, but that "it is enough that one of them be present to allow fascism to coagulate around it". He uses the term "Ur-fascism" as a generic description of different historical forms of fascism. Eleven of the fourteen properties are as follows:

"The Cult of Tradition", characterized by cultural syncretism, even at the risk of internal contradiction. When all truth has already been revealed by Tradition, no new learning can occur, only further interpretation and refinement.

"The Rejection of modernism", which views the rationalistic development of Western culture since the Enlightenment as a descent into depravity. Eco distinguishes this from a rejection of superficial technological advancement, as many fascist regimes cite their industrial potency as proof of the vitality of their system.

"The Cult of Action for Action's Sake", which dictates that action is of value in itself, and should be taken without intellectual reflection. This, says Eco, is connected with anti-intellectualism and irrationalism, and often manifests in attacks on modern culture and science.

"Disagreement Is Treason" – Fascism devalues intellectual discourse and critical reasoning as barriers to action, as well as out of fear that such analysis will expose the contradictions embodied in a syncretistic faith.

"Fear of Difference", which fascism seeks to exploit and exacerbate, often in the form of racism or an appeal against foreigners and immigrants.

"Appeal to a Frustrated Middle Class", fearing economic pressure from the demands and aspirations of lower social groups.

"Obsession with a Plot" and the hyping-up of an enemy threat. This often combines an appeal to xenophobia with a fear of disloyalty and sabotage from marginalized groups living within the society (such as the German elite's 'fear' of the 1930s Jewish populace's businesses and well-doings; see also anti-Semitism). Eco also cites Pat Robertson's book The New World Order as a prominent example of a plot obsession.

Fascist societies rhetorically cast their enemies as "at the same time too strong and too weak." On the one hand, fascists play up the power of certain disfavored elites to encourage in their followers a sense of grievance and humiliation. On the other hand, fascist leaders point to the decadence of those elites as proof of their ultimate feebleness in the face of an overwhelming popular will.

"Pacifism is Trafficking with the Enemy" because "Life is Permanent Warfare" – there must always be an enemy to fight. Both fascist Germany under Hitler and Italy under Mussolini worked first to organize and clean up their respective countries and then build the war machines that they later intended to and did use, despite Germany being under restrictions of the Versailles treaty to NOT build a military force. This principle leads to a fundamental contradiction within fascism: the incompatibility of ultimate triumph with perpetual war.

"Contempt for the Weak", which is uncomfortably married to a chauvinistic popular elitism, in which every member of society is superior to outsiders by virtue of belonging to the in-group. Eco sees in these attitudes the root of a deep tension in the fundamentally hierarchical structure of fascist polities, as they encourage leaders to despise their underlings, up to the ultimate Leader who holds the whole country in contempt for having allowed him to overtake it by force.

"Everybody is Educated to Become a Hero", which leads to the embrace of a cult of death. As Eco observes, "the Ur-Fascist hero is impatient to die. In his impatience, he more frequently sends other people to death."

"Machismo", which sublimates the difficult work of permanent war and heroism into the sexual sphere. Fascists thus hold "both disdain for women and intolerance and condemnation of nonstandard sexual habits, from chastity to homosexuality."

"Selective Populism" – The People, conceived monolithically, have a Common Will, distinct from and superior to the viewpoint of any individual. As no mass of people can ever be truly unanimous, the Leader holds himself out as the interpreter of the popular will (though truly he dictates it). Fascists use this concept to delegitimize democratic institutions they accuse of "no longer represent[ing] the Voice of the People."

"Newspeak" – Fascism employs and promotes an impoverished vocabulary in order to limit critical reasoning.

Does anything sound familiar?

Stephen K. Bannon
"Bannon and Breitbart Media were Trump before Trump"

QUOTES from the interview of Stephen K. Bannon
by Ken Stern, Vanity Fair, August 17, 2016:

Bannon and Breitbart Media were Trump before Trump, creating the political philosophy and the political army in waiting that has been the engine for the candidate’s astonishing rise in American politics.

A former employee of Breitbart described him (Bannon) to me as “Donald Trump but more intelligent.” He didn’t mean it as a compliment, and was instead referring to the opportunism, the personal vindictiveness, and the lack of a moral center that have become defining characteristics of Trump.

Breitbart, under his (Bannon's) leadership, after all, has become “Trump Pravda,” as one former staffer described it to me (Ken Stern, Vanity Fair).

Trump is a “blunt instrument for us,” he (Bannon) told me (Stern) earlier this summer. “I don’t know whether he really gets it or not.”

QUOTES from Trump's New Chief Strategist, Stephen K. Bannon
via Gizmodo, NOV 13, 2016:

“I’ve got a cure for mental health issue. Spank your children more.”

“I, Donald Trump and the rest of the alpha males will continue to dominate the internet without feminist whining.”

“Women should just log off. Given that men built the internet, along with the rest of modern civilization, I think it’s only fair that they get to keep it.”

“As insane as my suggestion sounds, it’s genuinely the best recipe for harmony between the sexes until women can stop lying about “abuse” and “harassment” or at least learn to take it as well as dish it out.”

“Breitbart beat other news organisations such as CNN, The Hill, and The Guardian with a total combined 9,098,013 Twitter and Facebook interactions, of which 89% came from Facebook and 11% from Twitter.” “This October, Breitbart News broke company traffic records, generating over 240 million pageviews and 37 million unique visitors.”

The Left is Responsible

British satirist Tom Walker (Jonathan Pie) mansplains it to the left.

"Stop Apologizing Liberals"
Bill Maher, January 27, 2017

As does Dave Chappelle and others, I wish Donald Trump the chance to do well. The U.S. is going to need all its patriots both left and right.

The Dave Chappelle SNL monologue video link here or here for Canadian viewers.

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The Shadow of Reality

11/2/2016

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While we wait for the October data from the real estate boards; I caught an interview on BNN yesterday with Mark Cashin, a Toronto mortgage broker who was being interviewed on the subject of "shadow lending" in Canada, ie: the non government insured mortgage lenders who have to actually assess risk when lending.

After the 1.30 minute mark in the interview, Mr Cashin remarked that a conventional 1st mortgage rate in the private market would be set at 6%.

RateHub quotes fixed 5 year term rates at 2.12 to 2.19% in Toronto and 10 year fixed rates at 3.59 to 4.69%.

If we had a primary banking industry that had to actually do their job of assessing risk and lend money out at market rates, the interest charged to offset that risk would probably be twice today's government "too big to fail" ZIRP and NIRP model.

Canadians are being kept in a subsidized credit market bubble apparently immune from the shadows of reality of the risk of over leverage. It's all good of course if the borrowers with weak hands can hang on to their cash flow and service their debt.

I suggest that if one is still willing to leverage up to buy real estate at this time in Canada, one should match their mortgage amortization with their employment contract amortization. I doubt if many employers have a 25 year horizon when looking at the labour pool.