HISTORY & READINGS at Brian Ripley's Canadian Housing Price Charts & Plunge-O-Meter

World Trade Recession Warning

11/30/2018

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While we wait for the November Real estate data to come in, the World Trade Organization has released their November 26, 2018 World Trade Outlook Indicator.

Their Trade Indicator has dropped to the lowest level since October 2016.

NOTE that the Canadian National MLS Real Estate sales peaked three months later in January of 2017.

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World Trade Component Indices Key Findings Full Text

This report covers new trade and trade-related measures implemented by G20 economies between 16 May and 15 October 2018. It shows a number of important trends in global trade policy-making. While G20 economies continued to implement trade-facilitating measures, the figures show a significant increase in the number and coverage of trade-restrictive measures. This provides a first factual insight into the trade‑restrictive measures imposed in the context of current trade tensions.

G20 economies applied 40 new trade-restrictive measures during the review period, including tariff increases, import bans and export duties. This equates to an average of eight restrictive measures per month.
During the review period, the estimated trade coverage of the import-restrictive measures (US$ 481 billion) was more than six times larger than that recorded in the previous period and is the largest since it was first calculated in 2012.

G20 economies also implemented 33 measures aimed at facilitating trade during the review period, including eliminating or reducing import tariffs and export duties. At close to seven trade‑facilitating measures per month, this is in line with the 2012-17 trend.

The trade coverage of import-facilitating measures (US$ 216 billion) has also risen significantly during this period but is just half that of trade-restrictive measures.

On trade remedy measures, the review period saw a decrease in initiations of investigations by G20 economies and a stagnation of terminations compared to the previous period. Initiations of anti-dumping investigations remain the most frequent trade remedy action, accounting for almost three-quarters of all initiations. The trade coverage of trade remedy initiations (US$ 25 billion) has fallen significantly compared to the previous period. The trade coverage of trade remedy terminations remained equivalent to the previous review period at US$ 6 billion.

The proliferation of trade‑restrictive actions and the uncertainty created by such actions could place economic recovery in jeopardy. Further escalation would carry potentially large risks for global trade, with knock-on effects for economic growth, jobs and consumer prices around the world.

G20 economies must use all means at their disposal to de-escalate the situation. The WTO will do all it can to support its members to this end and leadership from the G20 will be essential. PDF Chart Source

3 of My Charts Echo the WTO Warning

MLS SALES

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Canadian National MLS sales peaked in January 2017. Two of the six WTO metrics were already in recession.

YIELD CURVE

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The 10yr less 2yr yield metric was at its last major wide in January 2017 and now is only 16 bps from inversion.

NET TRADE

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Since January 2017, there have been 21 unbroken consecutive negative Net Trade prints.

Dirty Real Estate

11/26/2018

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE CIA MAP OF ILLICIT DRUG TRADE VIA WIKIPEDIA

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE MAP OF FENTANYL TRADE INTO CANADA VIA GLOBAL NEWS

Consider how Canadians have been whipped up into a FOMO real estate frenzy by a combination of our government sponsored ZIRP and NIRP, high ratio loan to value insurance schemes and outright cash helicopter drops all at the expense of you dear taxpayer.

We've all been punked and taken to the cleaners in Canada and weak handed mortgagors are at the highest risk as fear of missing out turns to fear of getting in.

Yes, the speculative boom has kept us employed in the FIRE sector of our economy but we have opened the doors to global forces beyond our societal controls.

THE VANCOUVER MODEL
FOR MONEY LAUNDERING
SPREADS ACROSS CANADA

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Analysis by Global News suggests the same extended crime network may have laundered about $5 billion in Vancouver-area homes since 2012. Global News, November 26, 2018

The C.D. Howe Institute study estimates of money laundering in Canada range from $5 billion to $100 billion. C.D. Howe Report, September 2018

Liar Liar

11/5/2018

"New data shows Trump is lying far more as the midterms approach. More than 1000 lies in October alone, more than any other month of his Presidency." Nov 5, 2018 @TheBeatWithAri

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The results of the U.S. midterms tomorrow
will affect our markets. While we wait....

Here is the Hare Psychopathy Checklist. "Each of the twenty items is given a score of 0, 1, or 2 based on how well it applies to the subject being tested. A prototypical psychopath would receive a maximum score of 40, while someone with absolutely no psychopathic traits or tendencies would receive a score of zero. A score of 30 or above qualifies a person for a diagnosis of psychopathy. People with no criminal backgrounds normally score around 5. Many non-psychopathic criminal offenders score around 22."

01. glib and superficial charm
02. grandiose (exaggeratedly high) estimation of self
03. need for stimulation
04. pathological lying
05. cunning and manipulativeness
06. lack of remorse or guilt
07. shallow affect (superficial emotional responsiveness)
08. callousness and lack of empathy
09. parasitic lifestyle
10. poor behavioral controls
11. sexual promiscuity
12. early behavior problems
13. lack of realistic long-term goals
14. impulsivity
15. irresponsibility
16. failure to accept responsibility for own actions
17. many short-term marital relationships
18. juvenile delinquency
19. revocation of conditional release
20. criminal versatility

Sound familiar?

Sociopathic Narcissist: Donald Trump, Narcissistic Personality Disorder and Sociopathy, by John C. Espy Karnacology, March 01, 2017

Here is the introduction:
With all of the discussions going on about Donald Trump’s ‘narcissism’, I thought I might offer a broader clinical perspective regarding sociopathic narcissism. Clearly there is great ongoing discussion about Donald Trump’s ‘narcissism’, however, I believe what has been errant in the discussion is that Trump is by definition not just ‘narcissistic.’ Trump’s narcissistic manifestations also appear to be well entrenched in sociopathy.

From a pragmatic standpoint an ‘amount’ of narcissism is necessary for being successful as it is for living. What is imperative to understand, is that our now president appears to have a definable mental illness that appears to manifest as a narcissistic personality disorder with sociopathy.

This primitive form of narcissism is by definition an intractable and realistically untreatable mental illness that even under the most ideal of clinical circumstances is only manageable at best. In Mr. Trump’s case it is manifest in apparently shady business dealings and in politically oppressive ways. However, the etiology is not business per se or political by nature but rather psychological. What we see manifest in individuals who are primitively bound within this commingled pathological structure takes on the following dynamics:

Sociopathic narcissism is not a diagnosis that is mysterious or one that looks like magical realism. Rather, like most clinical processes it has a relatively well defined structure (within having almost a complete lack of intrapsychic structure) and is also relatively predictable, once the individual has revealed enough of how their sociopathic narcissistic dynamics manifest. First, as we have seen demonstrated repeatedly, and using Mr. Trump as an example, narcissists seek out others who will behave in an obsequious manner, not just while in their physical presence but also who will parrot their projections while out of their physical presence.

In clinical circles that possess a familiarity of sociopathic narcissistic personalities, there is a slang that refers to those who encircle a sociopathic narcissist, particularly one with power, as ‘pandering whores.’ The term is clearly derogatory, particularly for those who seek to achieve secondary gain from riding the coattails of a sociopathic narcissistic individual or those who also manifest the same psychological structure, but have not been able to, if you will, get the traction to achieve the ‘greatness’ or notoriety of the one that they cling too. In essence, they become ‘great’ only in the shadow of the one they bark for.

A primary source of anxiety that lives within the sociopathic narcissist is a terror of ruinous disillusionment which would ultimately terminate in a catastrophic exposure of what is in essence a fraudulent existence. As the risk of exposure intensifies, be it in a dyad or more macro group structures, their intrapsychic constellation becomes increasing more fragile and their manifest behaviour becomes more erratic.
If you want to get under the hood of the Trumpster's brain, keep reading John Espy's diagnosis, it's worth the effort.

As Timothy L. O'Brien, the executive editor of Bloomberg Gadfly and Bloomberg View succinctly put it: Two things have always driven the president: self-aggrandizement and self-preservation.Bloomberg, May 10, 2017.

Trump's need for self-aggrandizement and self-preservation is the easiest filter to use to put all Trump news through when assessing whether Canada and your income is going to be better off as a result of the news. If it is good for Trump, check your wallet.

And here is Umberto Eco's definition of Facism from Wikipedia:

In his 1995 essay "Eternal Fascism", Umberto Eco lists fourteen general properties of fascist ideology. [UR-Fascism] He argues that it is not possible to organise these into a coherent system, but that "it is enough that one of them be present to allow fascism to coagulate around it". He uses the term "Ur-fascism" as a generic description of different historical forms of fascism. Eleven of the fourteen properties are as follows:

"The Cult of Tradition", characterized by cultural syncretism, even at the risk of internal contradiction. When all truth has already been revealed by Tradition, no new learning can occur, only further interpretation and refinement.

"The Rejection of modernism", which views the rationalistic development of Western culture since the Enlightenment as a descent into depravity. Eco distinguishes this from a rejection of superficial technological advancement, as many fascist regimes cite their industrial potency as proof of the vitality of their system.

"The Cult of Action for Action's Sake", which dictates that action is of value in itself, and should be taken without intellectual reflection. This, says Eco, is connected with anti-intellectualism and irrationalism, and often manifests in attacks on modern culture and science.

"Disagreement Is Treason" – Fascism devalues intellectual discourse and critical reasoning as barriers to action, as well as out of fear that such analysis will expose the contradictions embodied in a syncretistic faith.

"Fear of Difference", which fascism seeks to exploit and exacerbate, often in the form of racism or an appeal against foreigners and immigrants.

"Appeal to a Frustrated Middle Class", fearing economic pressure from the demands and aspirations of lower social groups.

"Obsession with a Plot" and the hyping-up of an enemy threat. This often combines an appeal to xenophobia with a fear of disloyalty and sabotage from marginalized groups living within the society (such as the German elite's 'fear' of the 1930s Jewish populace's businesses and well-doings; see also anti-Semitism). Eco also cites Pat Robertson's book The New World Order as a prominent example of a plot obsession.

Fascist societies rhetorically cast their enemies as "at the same time too strong and too weak." On the one hand, fascists play up the power of certain disfavored elites to encourage in their followers a sense of grievance and humiliation. On the other hand, fascist leaders point to the decadence of those elites as proof of their ultimate feebleness in the face of an overwhelming popular will.

"Pacifism is Trafficking with the Enemy" because "Life is Permanent Warfare" – there must always be an enemy to fight. Both fascist Germany under Hitler and Italy under Mussolini worked first to organize and clean up their respective countries and then build the war machines that they later intended to and did use, despite Germany being under restrictions of the Versailles treaty to NOT build a military force. This principle leads to a fundamental contradiction within fascism: the incompatibility of ultimate triumph with perpetual war.

"Contempt for the Weak", which is uncomfortably married to a chauvinistic popular elitism, in which every member of society is superior to outsiders by virtue of belonging to the in-group. Eco sees in these attitudes the root of a deep tension in the fundamentally hierarchical structure of fascist polities, as they encourage leaders to despise their underlings, up to the ultimate Leader who holds the whole country in contempt for having allowed him to overtake it by force.

"Everybody is Educated to Become a Hero", which leads to the embrace of a cult of death. As Eco observes, "the Ur-Fascist hero is impatient to die. In his impatience, he more frequently sends other people to death."

"Machismo", which sublimates the difficult work of permanent war and heroism into the sexual sphere. Fascists thus hold "both disdain for women and intolerance and condemnation of nonstandard sexual habits, from chastity to homosexuality."

"Selective Populism" – The People, conceived monolithically, have a Common Will, distinct from and superior to the viewpoint of any individual. As no mass of people can ever be truly unanimous, the Leader holds himself out as the interpreter of the popular will (though truly he dictates it). Fascists use this concept to delegitimize democratic institutions they accuse of "no longer represent[ing] the Voice of the People."

"Newspeak" – Fascism employs and promotes an impoverished vocabulary in order to limit critical reasoning.

Mendacity Update

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...inarticulate sounds without any meaning at all.

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TEXT for Search Engines below from the above image:

JUST FANCY THAT!

"The superiority of his genius consists in nothing else but an inexhaustible fund of political lies, which he plentifully distributes every minute he speaks, and by an unparalleled generosity forgets, and consequently contradicts, the next half hour. He never yet considered whether any proposition were true or false, but whether it were convenient for the present minute or company to affirm or deny it... the only remedy is to suppose that you have heard some inarticulate sounds, without any meaning at all."

From Jonathan Swift's essay "The Art of Political Lying", published in The Examiner, 9, November 1710