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Tech Talent and Real Estate

11/30/2019

 
Canadian tech workers & real estate
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​The CBRE Group, Inc. trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “CBRE.” is the world’s largest commercial real estate services (2018). Their recently released study "Scoring Canadian Tech Talent" provide insights into how the growth in demand for tech talent is impacting cities and real estate markets across Canada.
​
CBRE Report Snippets
  • Record commercial and residential real
    estate demand and an office construction boom in several markets.
  • High-Tech sector GDP growth = 3x the pace of the overall economy over last 5 years.
  • Tech industry accounts for 17.1% of major office leasing activity since start of 2018.
  • Immigration policies have produced an abundant, accessible source of tech talent. 
  • Top Canadian universities produce highly educated tech workers in specialized fields eg: AI research and multimedia production. 
  • U.S. companies can tap into high quality talent at a less prohibitive cost when accounting for the discounted CAD$. 

For years I have been highlighting the demand in Canada for tech workers. The October 2019 employment data is typical of the obvious trend: Professional, Scientific and Technical Services employment is up +7.4% Y/Y while Service Producing is up 3% Y/Y and Goods Producing is up 0.1% Y/Y. 

Yes, the information revolution is producing new data consumption markets at the corporate level, but what about our social contract and our environmental needs? We need to direct capital and labour towards complex issues like e
nvironmental remediation, infrastructure, education, health, wellness, and electoral and taxation reform.

Tax reform should be taken on by the tech sector, because the political institutional approach towards taxation is built upon generations of carrot and stick incentives which end up benefiting one voting constituency over another.

If we are to take on the the greatest challenges to our well being, the Automated Payment Tax developed by Edgar L. Feige, Professor of Economics Emeritus at the University of Wisconsin-Madison would indeed kick start stubborn 20th century institutional thinking into a progressive 21st century that the new tech sector generation dreams of. How?

The APT (Automated Payment Tax) is a micro tax taken at every financial transaction where each side of the transaction gets debited a small amount of capital that is credited to the government in a revenue neutral algorithm. Professor Feige's team modeled the U.S. economy from late 1990's data and realized that it would take less than 2% of every financial transaction to produce a revenue neutral state where all the government's fiscal objectives were met.

The APT would eliminate the need to file tax or information returns. That in itself should provide enough incentive to read the 41 page PDF study by Feige.

The foundations of the APT tax proposal—a small, uniform tax on all economic transactions—involve simplification, base broadening, reductions in marginal tax rates, the elimination of tax and information returns and the automatic collection of tax revenues at the payment source. The APT approach would extend the tax base from income, consumption and wealth to all transactions.
Think about the desirability and feasibility of replacing the present system of personal and corporate income, sales, excise, capital gains, import and export duties, gift and estate taxes with a single comprehensive revenue neutral Automated Payment Transaction (APT) tax.

In its simplest form, the APT tax consists of a flat tax levied on all transactions. The tax is automatically assessed and collected when transactions are settled through the electronic technology of the banking/ payments system.

The APT tax introduces progressivity through the tax base since the volume of final payments includes exchanges of titles to property and is therefore more highly skewed than the conventional income or consumption tax base.

The wealthy carry out a disproportionate share of total transactions and therefore bear a disproportionate burden of the tax despite its flat rate structure.

The automated recording of all APT tax payments by firms and individuals creates a degree of transparency and perceived fairness that induces greater tax compliance. Also, the tax has lower administrative and compliance cost.

If we want to take on the challenges of the 21st century, ie: the urgent generational "moonshots" facing us, then tech sector - take on the challenge of tax reform. 

​Simon J. Thorpe agrees in his 12 page PDF:
A Flat Rate Financial Transaction Tax to replace all taxes?

​What an excellent idea! Shame that more people didn't take notice - there are just 17 citations to his (Edgar Feige's) paper in Google Scholar. It's about time he got the recognition he deserved- and about time his forward thinking ideas got taken seriously.

Advantages of a Flat Rate FTT (Financial Transaction Tax) October 2010 by:
Simon J. Thorpe, CNRS Research Director (DRCE), CerCo (CNRS-UT3), TMBI (Univ. Toulouse), BrainChip Inc 

  • A Flat Rate FTT is fair.
  • A Flat Rate FTT is cheap to implement.
  • A Flat Rate FTT would be virtually impossible to avoid.
  • Removing conventional taxes would make tax havens largely irrelevant.
  • A Flat Rate FTT would provide a level playing field.
  • A Flat Rate FTT taxes those actors in the economy who can pay.
  • The abolition of taxes on profits would be a major incentive to the economy.
  • Increased incentives to short production supply chains.
  • Increased incentives for local exchanges.

Read the full argument.
"The global financial crime wave is no accident Financial crime is a feature of our global financial system not a bug." said pioneering economist Susan Strange. ​November 28, 2018 by Naomi Fowler
Financial Secrecy Index - 2018 Results

Canada ranks 21 out of 112 jurisdictions after Switzerland (1), the USA (2) and the Cayman Islands (3).


​“Canada and the U.S. are the two most lax jurisdictions in the world when it comes to the rules for preventing the incorporation of anonymous shell companies. What’s more, corporate service providers operating in those two countries are less compliant than those operating in Ghana, Lithuania, or Barbados, and follow laxer rules than those in Malaysia or the Cayman Islands.”

every twitch and grunt

11/24/2019

 
USD vs Global FX
CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

Canadian External Debt in USD
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
​"Chinese Yuan makes up a lower portion of global reserves than the British Pound and even the Swiss Franc, and is just ahead of Canada." Hat Tip to ​@anilvohra69 for the note and graphic in my Twitter feed.
US dollar credit to non-bank borrowers outside the United States grew by 4% year on year  to reach $11.9 trillion at end-June 2019. This represents a slight acceleration relative to the 3% annual growth rate observed at end-2018. Bank of International Settlements  October 2019

​Foreign borrowers of USD denominated debt is accelerating. What gets borrowed in USD has to be repaid in USD and as the USD rises in value, so does the demand for USD.

I update my
USD vs CAD Canadian Housing Price chart as well as my Canadian Household Debt  chart every month. Our chronic negative Canadian Balance of Trade means that OUR debt obligations continue to provide more stimulus to offshore than onshore producers.​ A rising USD is not good for most Canadians.
INVESTOPEDIA KEY TAKEAWAYS, July 2019
​

> A dollar shortage occurs when a country spends more U.S. dollars on imports than it receives on exports.

> Since the USD is used to price many goods globally, and is used in many international trade transactions, a dollar shortage can limit a country's ability to grow or trade effectively.

> Most countries try to maintain a reserve of currencies, like U.S. dollars or other major currencies, which can be used to buy imported goods, manage the country's exchange rate, pay international debts, or make international transactions or investments.​
​Pierre Trudeau’s Washington Press Club speech
“Living next to you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, if I can call it that, one is affected by every twitch and grunt.” Pierre Elliot Trudeau, the March 1969 speech to the Washington Press Club.
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    "Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement; and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana Vol. I, Reason in Common Sense​​
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  • Home
    • History Readings
  • Chart Book
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    • Vancouver Housing
    • Calgary Housing
    • Toronto Housing
    • Compare Toronto & Vancouver
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    • Real Price of Housing
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    • TSX Indexes
    • Millionaire Metric
    • Real Price of Gold & RE
    • Canadian Housing in USD
    • Bitcoin Gold & RE
    • Housing Starts
  • Plunge-O-Meter
    • Real Interest Rates
    • Real 10yr Rate
    • Interest Rate Spread
    • Yield Curve
    • Yield Calculator
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