chpc.biz
  • Home
    • History Readings
  • Chart Book
    • 6 Canadian Metros
    • Vancouver Housing
    • Calgary Housing
    • Toronto Housing
    • Compare Toronto & Vancouver
    • Housing Price Momentum
    • Real Price of Housing
    • Sales Listings
    • MAR-MOI
    • TSX Indexes
    • Millionaire Metric
    • Real Price of Gold & RE
    • Canadian Housing in USD
    • Bitcoin Gold & RE
    • Housing Starts
  • Plunge-O-Meter
    • Real Interest Rates
    • Real 10yr Rate
    • Interest Rate Spread
    • Yield Curve
    • Yield Calculator
  • Earnings Employment
    • Household Debt
    • Affordability
    • Demographia
    • Census
  • For Sale CHPC
    • Contact
    • Data Sources
    • Featured Links
    • Terms of Service

Credit Cycles

12/10/2015

 
Credit Default Cycles
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
First In ~ First Out

According to StatsCan, in 2001 after the dot.com blowout and the markets then turned to commodities, there were +/- 329,129 employees working in the Oil, Gas & Mining industries per year in Canada and in full year 2014 that number had increased by 60.8% to 529,248.

​This includes "support activities" but not the peripheral jobs in the general economy that depend on the spending by those oil, gas and mining employees.
In the chart above, the top panel shows U.S. non-financial corporate debt to GDP at levels where credit defaults start hitting the front page. The lower panel shows the cumulative flow of investment funds in the U.S. and illustrates that institutional money is way ahead of private client money in getting out of the way of market risk to the downside.

According to the New York Times December 8, 2015 "If It Owns a Well or a Mine, It’s Probably in Trouble".
“The world of commodities has been turned upside down,” said Daniel Yergin, the energy historian and vice chairman of IHS, a consultant firm. “Instead of tight supply and strong demand, we have tepid demand and oversupply and overcapacity for commodity production. It’s the end of an era that is not going to come back soon.”
Some energy experts are even beginning to express concerns that sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia and other wealthy Persian Gulf and oil-producing countries will redeem their money from investment firms in the coming year to shore up their balance sheets. If they do, the moves could initiate more instability in global equity and debt markets.
The full article is worth reading for Canadians who are also heavily leveraged and require employment earnings to satisfy debt repayment on assets that have insufficient equity to refinance.
​

Credit lines drying up for oil companies?

Notice the comments about the competition between Sunni (Saudi Arabia) and Shia (Iran) oil.
High Yield Distress
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
​Distress (bonds trading over 1,000bps) has been spreading across the HY space. From its starting point in energy a year ago, it has now reached other commodity-sensitive areas such as transportation, materials, capital goods, and commercial services. But it did not stop here and is also visible in places like retail, gaming, media, consumer staples, and technology – all areas that were widely expected to be insulated from low oil prices, if not even benefitting form them.
​In other words, what was until a year ago a purely "energy" phenomenon is now an "everything" phenomenon, despite promises by every prominent economist that plunging energy prices are great news for the economy.

$35 Oil Stress Test

12/2/2015

 
$35 Dollar Oil Stress Test
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
Imagine $35 Oil for 5yrs

A US-Style Canadian housing correction possibility is a potential that CMHC's CEO Evan Siddall discussed at a private audience presentation in New York, November 30, 2015 if oil remained at an average price of USD$35 per barrel for 5 years.

The top chart are oil prices since the OAPEC (Arab members of OPEC plus Egypt & Syria) oil embargo. Note the 22 year period of sub-$35 oil prices not long ago.
The bottom chart is Bloomberg's energy sector projections from their annual New Energy Finance Summit, April 14, 2015.
​
SCENARIO 1:
Oil averaging $35/bbl for 5 years
  • 26% drop in Canadian home prices
  • 12.5% peak unemployment

SCENARIO 2:
Global deflation and a US-style Housing Correction 
  • 30-44% drop in Canadian home prices 
  • 12-16% peak unemployment

"Canada’s home price growth since the 2008 recession has outpaced that of the U.S., Australia, and the U.K. It also reiterated risks to housing include high debt-to-income and concentration of net worth in housing." Financial Post November 30, 2015 (My Household Debt and Earnings charts are updated monthly - BR)
​

Donald Sadoway "Science Serving Society"

Energy 2064 with Professor Donald R. Sadoway

The Bill Gates Backed Canadian Building a Better Battery

"How do you store the energy generated by turbines when the wind isn’t blowing, the power from solar panels when the sun isn’t shining?” Read the Globe & Mail June 2015 report.
    Follow @Brian_Ripley

    RSS Feed


    Picture


    History, Charts & Curated Readings

    "History, real solemn history, I cannot be interested in.... I read it a little as a duty; but it tells me nothing that does not either vex or weary me. The quarrels of popes and kings, with wars and pestilences in every page; the men all so good for nothing, and hardly any women at all - it is very tiresome." Jane Austen spoken by Catherine Morland in 'Northanger Abbey'


    Archives

    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012
    January 2012

    Categories

    All
    AI
    Airbnb
    Apt
    Austerity
    Australia
    Balance Of Trade
    BNN
    BTC
    Bubbles
    Budget
    Bulls
    Busts
    Calgary
    Canada
    Capital Flight
    Case Shiller
    Case Study
    Charlie Rose
    China
    Chris Kimble
    Climate
    Cmhc
    Commodities
    CPI
    Credit
    Cullen Roche
    Currency
    Debt
    Deflation
    Demographics
    Dubai
    Employment
    Energy
    Environment
    Europe
    Exports
    Fair Value
    Flippers
    Future
    FX
    GDP
    Gold
    Greenspan
    Hong Kong
    Hyperinflation
    Id
    Imports
    Inflation
    Interest Rates
    Japan
    Labour
    Martin Armstrong
    MM
    Money Laundering
    Money Velocity
    Montreal
    Mortgage
    Net Worth
    New York
    OECD
    Oil
    Olympic Village
    Pandemic
    Pmi
    Poverty
    Productivity
    Recession
    REIT
    Rent Or Buy
    Russia
    Savers
    Savings
    Solar Cycle
    Stock Market
    Super Rich
    Tax
    Technology
    Tesla
    Toronto
    Trade
    Trump
    TV
    U.K.
    Unemployment
    U.S.
    Vancouver
    Victoria
    Wages
    War
    Weather
    Whale Watching
    WTO
    Yield

    "Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement; and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana Vol. I, Reason in Common Sense​​
Home | Chart Book | Earnings | Plunge-O-Meter | History & Readings | Contact

BRIAN RIPLEY'S CANADIAN HOUSING PRICE CHARTS & Blog for
#Vancouver #Calgary #Edmonton #Toronto #Ottawa #Montreal
Real Estate Prices, Sales & Inventory with Plunge-O-Nomic Post Peak Price Action featuring the PLUNGE-O-METER
Data reporting changes by Real Estate Boards and other data collection notes are listed on the DATA SOURCES page.

If you want to be notified when I update this site, go to: twitter.com/Brian_Ripley and click "Follow".

GET A FREE TRIAL DISCOUNT TO CHRIS KIMBLE'S FINANCIAL MARKETS CHARTING SOLUTIONS
ADVERTISE YOUR REAL ESTATE FOR SALE TO THIS INFORMED AUDIENCE
Thousands of Unique Visitors and Page Views Every Month TRAFFIC CHART

Picture
Picture
Picture

Weebly - Websites, eCommerce & Marketing in one place.
Compare Weebly Plans
​This website & blog was built with Weebly; a very easy to use drag and drop cloud based app. TRY IT FOR FREE​
CHPC.biz (this site) is a SAFE BROWSING SITE according to Google's Safe Browsing Diagnostic

  • Home
    • History Readings
  • Chart Book
    • 6 Canadian Metros
    • Vancouver Housing
    • Calgary Housing
    • Toronto Housing
    • Compare Toronto & Vancouver
    • Housing Price Momentum
    • Real Price of Housing
    • Sales Listings
    • MAR-MOI
    • TSX Indexes
    • Millionaire Metric
    • Real Price of Gold & RE
    • Canadian Housing in USD
    • Bitcoin Gold & RE
    • Housing Starts
  • Plunge-O-Meter
    • Real Interest Rates
    • Real 10yr Rate
    • Interest Rate Spread
    • Yield Curve
    • Yield Calculator
  • Earnings Employment
    • Household Debt
    • Affordability
    • Demographia
    • Census
  • For Sale CHPC
    • Contact
    • Data Sources
    • Featured Links
    • Terms of Service