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Castrated By The Zero Bound

11/29/2020

 
Historical Real Rates
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
Low Rates Affect Spending
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
Company Lifespans are Changing
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
Here are some additional charts and a continuation of my May 28th, 2020 post titled "Suprasecular Decline" that suggests the financial recovery from Covid 19 is unlikely to be V-shaped.
"Central banks all over the world are using the fiscal side of their balance sheet...  Monetary policy is essentially castrated by the zero bound." Kenneth Rogoff (and Carmen Reinhart) speaking with Bloomberg, May 24, 2020
Low rates have indeed animated the animal spirits and driven up asset prices, but these same low rates now are signaling a major change in consumption behaviour.

Covid 19 is rearranging the deck chairs for us and the lower rates now compared to just a few years ago are not as effective as they were at driving price and wage increases because consumption priorities are changing very quickly. This is showing up in the lifespan of S&P 500 companies which are projected to become shorter in duration through the end of this decade as the market place switches to working from home, buying online and investing in just-in-time services.
The Richard Bernstein Advisors CEO recently told CNBC that the market dominance of Big Tech is a "very bearish sign" for the economy and corporate profits, which has historically been the largest driver of stock gains. Bernstein pointed to the outperformance of the tech-heavy Nasdaq versus broader indexes, and said that narrow leadership in the market is "an end-of-cycle event."  Markets.BusinessInsider.com, November 8, 2020

Covid 19 Impacts
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

DotCom Peak 2.0

5/16/2019

 
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CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
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CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
Here we go again; two decades later, the same signal lights are flashing. The two charts above reflect the percentage of companies with negative earnings a year prior to IPO (via @JackPScott)
and U.S. Corporate Credit as a % of GDP (via @trevornoren).

When stock market equities deflate, household financing sentiments change.
​
...the stock market plays a significant role in influencing the growth and/or reduction in volatility and market risk.

...the health of the stock market acts as a bellwether for a variety of purchasing decisions made by consumers across the domestic economy.

...in a falling stock market, however. As the number of prospective buyers decreases, it is possible that banks will alter their lending policies to woo individuals from an ever-decreasing pool of prospective buyers.

...we can see how changes in the stock market do influence the mindset and eagerness of home buyers. With that in mind, people who are ready to buy a home should watch the stock market to determine whether or not they are able to leverage market volatility to their advantage during their negotiations with banks.

The above quotes are from Does the Stock Market Affect the Housing Market? By: Ryan Cockerham | Reviewed by: Ashley Donohoe, MBA; Updated March 06, 2019 via Zacks.com

Two Minutes to Midnight

4/23/2019

 
CAD Mortgage Credit Ungrowth
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
​Credit booms are followed by credit busts and as the chart shows, Canadian Residential Mortgage Credit (%Y/Y lending) has been shrinking dramatically since the July 2008 Crude Oil Peak and the Crash into the March 2009 Pit of Gloom (6 Metros Chart).    

​It's been 10 years since the 2008-09 crash which is difficult to even remember now after 10 years of watching our housing prices more than double. But as Hilliard Macbeth points out in the chart above, when residential mortgage lending momentum approaches and dips into a negative metric, housing prices tumble and recession metrics begin to appear. In the two biggest FOMO markets, Vancouver and Toronto, prices indeed have been dropping in the 7-9% per year range after peaking 18-20 months ago respectively (Plunge-O-Meter).

​As Hilliard further points out:​
"There hasn’t been a serious economic downturn in Canada since the 1990s; the last time that mortgage credit grew as slowly as now. Unfortunately bank lending is pro-cyclical, so lenders will tighten credit conditions just as real estate borrowing stops growing, which will make the downturn worse. This boom/bust cycle is inevitable as long as lenders focus on lending for real estate investment and speculation rather than more productive investments. To change that focus, a new set of rules and regulations that govern lending is needed.” Quote included in Jason Kirby and MACLEAN's Most Important Charts to Watch in 2019


​Canadian Banks on "Credit Doomsday Watch" CIBC

The CIBC analysts said that Canadian banks appear to be headed for their weakest credit cycle since the oil price collapse, which caused related loan losses to jump in 2016. While their prediction is “not a coming apocalypse,” the report said the banks’ loan losses last quarter had a “one-off feel to them” that could become more frequent. “For reference, the actual doomsday clock sits at two minutes to midnight,” the analysts said.

​
Well it could easily be one o'clock in the morning as weak hands cut their losses. Hat Tip to @Hutchyman​
Vancouver Real Estate Losses 2019
CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

It's important to remember that our housing and credit boom is part of the global credit boom and it's fading. Hat Tip to @TaviCosta
​
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CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

Commodity Super Cycle

10/24/2018

 
Commodity Super Cycle
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
As I have been pointing out on my chart of TSX INDEXES for Energy, Real Estate, Financial Services, Gold and the Bank of Canada Commodities in $CAD, that...
...the Thompson Reuters CRB chart shows that global commodities measured in USD has been dropping since 2008, although recently since September (2018), there has been a near term rally in commodities... BUT

...since Oct 3, 2018, the Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Index has been coiling down. 

On my Twitter Feed from @hks55 came their chart suggesting that the commodity super cycle is poised for another leg down due to China's slowdown in credit creation that had spurred the commodity boom as Kyle Bass illustrates in this comparison between Chinese credit creation and their GDP (the link includes the 41 second video).
China Credit Creation to GDP
CLICK TO GO TO ORIGINAL POST
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CLICK TO GO TO ORIGINAL POST

China’s Slower Credit Growth
Underscores Worries Over Economy
​Bloomberg, Aug 2018
​

Chinese Central Bank Financing
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

Equities and Bonds

10/14/2018

 
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​Why The Stock Market Is Heading For Disaster
In this presentation, Clarity Financial's economic analyst Jesse Colombo explains why the U.S. stock market is experiencing a dangerous bubble that is going to burst violently and cause serious damage to the underlying economy. Published on Oct 11, 2018
Hat tip to Jesse Colombo for the following 14 minute video that includes the following 20 long term charts:
  1. S&P 500 since 1997
  2. Percent equity gains since 2009
  3. Interest rates since 1997
  4. Real Fed Funds rate since 1990
  5. U.S. corp debt since 1980
  6. U.S. corp debt as a percent of GDP since 1980
  7. Buybacks and dividends paid vs S&P 500 value since 2000
  8. S&P 500 vs NYSE margin debt as percent of GDP since 1997
  9. Retail investor allocation to stocks vs cash since 1997
  10. CBOE volatility index (VIX) since 1997
  11. St Louis financial stress index since 1997
  12. BAML U.S. high yield spread since 1997
  13. Cyclically adjusted P/E ratio since 1980
  14. U.S. stock market capitalization to GDP ratio since 1971
  15. Tobins Q ratio since 1902
  16. U.S. net corp profits as a percent of GNP since 1947
  17. FAANG stocks vs S&P 500 since 2009
  18. Fed Funds rate and recessions since 1997
  19. Financial banking crises and recessions since 1977
  20. 10-2 year treasuries spread since 1976
​

Trump Is Completely Misguided On Interest Rates

If the Fed or other central bank voluntarily abandons further credit expansion (most commonly by raising interest rates), the credit and asset bubble will experience a deflationary bust. Deflationary episodes entail credit busts, falling consumer prices, bear markets in stocks and housing prices, and falling wages. If the central bank decides to never put an end to the credit expansion (for example, if the Fed never raised rates), however, the result would be a runaway credit and asset bubble that leads to a severe decrease in the value of the currency and high rates of inflation. The latter scenario is what would occur if President Trump got his way – hardly a desirable outcome for the economy. To summarize, the Fed is crazy – they’re crazy for creating such a large bubble in the first place via loose monetary policy, but not for raising interest rates and normalizing their monetary policy.  Jesse Colombo, Oct 17, 2018 ​


​Market Bear Hussman Says Stocks Could Lose $20 Trillion

To state the obvious, bull markets do not last forever, and inevitably are followed by bear markets. Likewise, economic expansions also must end at some point, followed by recessions, and recessions typically are accompanied by bear markets. John Hussman, Oct 15, 2018 
John Hussman Prediction
CLICK TABLE TO ENLARGE
The table above from current stock market bears is warning about a pending major stock market correction of 20%, 30%, 40%, 50% or 60% while past major corrections came in at 83% in 1929, 34% in 1987, 49% in 2000, and 57% in 2007.

​My fantasy Plunge-O-Meter for September 2018 is showing a potential 51% average drop for Canadian housing prices for the 6 biggest markets in Canada if buyers go on strike.
Plunge-O-Meter
CLICK TABLE TO ENLARGE
Buyers outside of Canada in other housing bubble cities are thinning in number.
​There's trouble ahead in the global housing market
Source: Business Insider July 2018 

Toronto: Prices clearly peaked in early 2017. Prices are now down 3% vs last year. (Toronto SF Detached are down 17% from the peak. See the Sept 30, 2018 Plunge-O-Meter)

Syndey: Compared to last year, prices are now down 5% and supply has ballooned 22%.

Stockholm & Vancouver: Over a recent 6-month period, prices in the luxury property market fell 9% and 7.6%, respectively.

New York City: In Q1 2018, prices were down 8% YoY and sales were down 25%. NYC's luxury properties fared even worse.

San Francisco: After hitting a record price high in January, the city has seen a rare spring decline in prices, while rents across the SF Bay Area are starting to "cool off"


Bond King Gundlach predicts yields
much higher before this move ends

"If you look at the charts and you look at the way the market's behaving and you think about the trends that are underneath the bond market, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see the 30-year [yield] go to 4 percent before this move of the breakout above 3.25 percent is over," he said on "Halftime Report" Thursday. CNBC, Oct 11, 2018

Bond King Gundlach predicts yields are headed much higher before this move ends from CNBC.

Gundlach Yields Heading Higher
CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

Divergence

9/28/2018

 
Real Estate Divergence
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
While we wait for the September real estate sales, inventory and price data to be released next week, Chris Kimble today makes the observation that real estate proxies in the equity markets are behaving à la 2007.
​
Says Chris Kimble Sept 28, 2018:

"This 4-pack (chart above) compares the price action of today with the price action of the 2007 highs in the Dow Jones Home Construction Index, Bank Index & Real Estate.

Before the S&P peaked in 2007, Home Construction, Banks and Real Estate started creating a series of lower highs, diverging with the S&P.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am– Divergences similar to 2007 are taking place of late.

The long-term trend for each of these Stock indices reams up at this time! Stock market bulls hope that it’s different this time and that these divergences are just noise."
​I have been making a similar observation on my chart of ​Housing Price Momentum for Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto Single Family Detached Prices and the TSX Real Estate Index.
​"In August 2018 Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto SFD price momentum hovered about the flat line while the TSX Real Estate Index cash buyer momentum ticked back up to the nearby highs."

Notice on my chart of August 2018 below, the July 2007 TSX Real Estate Index tested its highs yet on the ground in the physical world, the price momentum of Calgary Single Family Detached Prices plummeted, while Vancouver SFD prices coiled their way towards the eventual lows and while Toronto's SFD prices made their eventual way towards their 2008 lows to be followed by Vancouver and Calgary into their 2009 lows. Is it different this time? Stay tuned.
​
Housing Price Momentum
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

Hilliard MacBeth "When the Bubble Bursts"
Top 5 predictions for Canada's housing markets in 2018
​BNN Interview September 28, 2018

Market Timing

4/30/2018

 
As we wait for the April real estate data to be released next week, let's take another look at the month end U.S. S&P 500 via Lance Roberts at ​realinvestmentadvice.com
​
SPX 1994-2018
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
"With portfolios still weighted towards equity, but overweight in cash and shorter-duration fixed income, we can afford to sit still into next week and allow the market to choose its path."
"We can afford to sit still..." Yes in the cash markets, sitting still is an option with risk management in place. But in real estate portfolios, if a correction or major negative price trend develops, everyone is involved unless sellers can successfully get ahead of the change in trend. But that requires acting before a wide acceptance of a new paradigm is acknowledged. By that time, buyers will have gone on strike as they wait for their opportunity to lead the market.

Lance argues in the chart above that the...
Intermediate-Term Picture Remains Bearish

​On a intermediate-term basis, both of our weekly “sell signals” remain, and as shown below, the market once again failed at its overhead trend line last week as well as the downtrend resistance from the previous peaks. These failures keep downward pressure on the market as prices continue to follow the “path of least resistance.”

The weekly chart also shows the rare “buy” and “sell” signals issued on a longer-term basis. Currently, as the market struggles with its current correction process, it is also very close to triggering a more important “sell signal” which could indicate a further correctionary process over the next several months.

Over the last 25-years, these sell signals have only been triggered 5-other times.

1. At the peak of the market prior to the “Asian Contagion”
2. Just prior to the peak of the market in 2000
3. At the peak of the market in 2007
4. At the peak of the market 2011 as QE-2 ended and the U.S.was facing the “debt ceiling debate.” 
5. Near the peak of the market from the collision of the end QE-3, the “taper tantrum” and “Brexit.”
I can't find much of a record to suggest that a violent drop in stock market equities will necessarily drag real estate prices down, but a confluence of rising rates (Globe & Mail), stress testing (Global News), foreign buyer taxes (Financial Post), labour force displacement (Canadian Underwriter) and present historic real estate valuations (my 6 city chart) is a negative to price growth.

But I did find this chart here of the S&P 500 vs the Case Shiller U.S. Housing Index:
S&P 500 vs Case Shiller
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
It is clear that some sort of correlation exists between stock values and real estate values.  Stocks started their recent bull run in 2009.  As you can see from the chart above, real estate values didn’t start moving up steadily until 2012.  So there is a lag here.  But what is interesting is the correction in stock values in 2008 matched up with real estate values.  In fact, real estate values started trending lower before the market crash. DoctorHousingBubble.com

In ​January 2018 the S&P 500, DOW and TSX peaked.
Picture
Toronto real estate peaked in 1Q 2017 although condo prices hit a new price high last month.

Vancouver prices peaked 3Q 2017 and like Toronto, strata prices are still peaking as of last month.
​
Calgary prices peaked 2Q 2017 with condo prices hitting their high back in 3Q 2016


​U.S. vs Canada Private Debt to GDP

Private debt to GDP
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

Steve Keen "Can we avoid another financial crisis?"

The U.S. and the U.K. can but China, Australia, Canada, Belgium, Norway, and Sweden are next. (paraphrased)

Melt Up

3/31/2018

 
SPX 21 Month Melt Up
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
As we wait for the first week of April to unfold and the March real estate data to come in, questions about the stock market's melt-up comes via  @anilvohra69

​Anil, a retired UBS rates options trader, quotes investment strategist Jeremy Grantham: 
Bubbles have a blowoff phase lasting 21 months. Using a 5% threshold, the run from Feb 16 to Dec 17 was 22 months.

​Hence the question "Have we seen the melt-up?" It certainly appears that way for Toronto Real Estate (as of February 2018 data) and the March data may add even more weight to the thesis.
​
Toronto Real Estate Melt Up
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

​During Toronto's 21 month "melt-up", listing levels crashed as the fear of missing out kept sellers out of the market.

Post melt-up, Toronto sales are testing the lows as buyers fear getting in. 

​​Markets are related. Real Estate valuations are not immune.
Weak hands will offer up their assets first and in Canada we have a lot of household debt that eventually will face term renewals and the official stress test which is the greater of either the Bank of Canada’s five-year benchmark rate, now 5.14%, or the rate offered by a lender plus another 2%.

If you are thinking of 'buying the dip' make sure your income is amortized over the length of your mortgage. In a melt down, the erosion of net worth will shift a lender's risk management exercise to more closely examine the strength and security of your net income.

​As we know employment income growth is facing profound challenges.
​
Global Risks 2018
According to the IMF, over the past three decades 53% of countries have seen an increase in income inequality, with this trend particularly pronounced in advanced economies. Furthermore, today’s economic strains are likely to sow the seeds for longer-term problems. High levels of personal debt, coupled with inadequate savings and pension provisions, are one reason to expect that frustrations may deepen in the years ahead. We highlight four concerns: (1) persistent inequality and unfairness, (2) domestic and international political tensions, (3) environmental dangers and (4) cyber vulnerabilities. We conclude by reflecting on the increased dangers of systemic breakdown. 
World Economic Forum


​Strongest 'Bubble Burst'' Alarm Just Went Off
Jeremy Grantham 2018

Inversion Report

1/27/2018

 
Canadian Yield Curve
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

​In December 2017, the 10yr less 2yr Canada Government bond spread narrowed to just 32 beeps away from inversion.
In April 2006 it was 33bps away and narrowing until ​it was fully inverted in May, June and July of 2007, and then central banks panicked and goosed the spread to widening again and by November 2007 it was 31bps again.

A year and half later the wide reached 230 beeps in May 2009, 2 months after the pit of gloom crash bottom.

We should start watching for further narrowing now especially with equity markets at their historical tops.
​
The Macro Model" chart below is from Crescat Capital with a few of my notations about Canadian debt levels which are at historical highs. ​NILS JENSON from Crescat Capital on January 27, 2018 made the observation that:
Market history is littered with downturns that followed new Republican presidents: Hoover (1929), Eisenhower (1953), Nixon (1969), Reagan (1981), and Bush (2001). The Trump bubble will likely prove to be the mother of all Republican presidential ebullience bubbles. Trade wars are not positive at all for the markets. They are what exacerbated the Great Depression and they should be one of the key triggers of the bursting of the China bubble.
Crescat Macro Model
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

Here's Who Could Lose the Most in a U.S.-China Trade War
Bloomberg, January 23, 2017

Oil-O-Nomics

3/9/2017

 
Slippery Oil WTIC
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
It's a big day in the Oil Markets as the price of crude slips below the sentiment price of US$50 the list is growing of oil majors who are withdrawing from further investment in Alberta. 

Also yields in the bond markets are continuing their rising trend; ie: the cost to finance is rising. 
​
  • MAR 9/17 Lower oil prices have the potential to take down the stock market Market Watch
  • MAR 9/17 Energy Credit Risk Soars As Crude Carnage Continues Zero Hedge
  • MAR 9/17 U.S. Solar Market Has Record-Breaking Year, Total Market Poised to Triple in Next Five Years SEIA Org
  • MAR 9/17 Canadian crude just got a lot more Canadian as another global giant bails on the oilsands Financial Post
  • MAR 8/17 World Doubled Its Solar Power Capacity in 2016 Futurism
  • FEB 26/17 With Shale Oil Production Like This, Who Needs Trump? Bloomberg
  • FEB 22/17 Exxon will leave 3.6-billion barrels of tar sands oil in the ground Environmental Defense
  • FEB 14/17 Don't Hold Your Breath For $70 Oil Prices Forbes
  • JAN 15/17 Future of the oilsands: the good, the bad and the ugly CBC News
  • DEC 14/16 Norwegian giant pulls out of Alberta's oilsands National Observer
  • APR 21/16 Kurzweil predicts solar industry dominance in 12 years Electrek

​The first bullet point above should concern the Canadian real estate markets. If a stock market correction gets sparked, the combination of rising interest rates and falling equity values should spook the real estate bull. Mortgage term renewals will go up in price and the bank of mom and dad will reconsider the risk of the rising cost of money. Parents, especially retirement aged or close to it, will not be too eager to take on more debt and purchasers of any age will have to consider timing as an investment criteria rather than buying anything with a front door for fear of missing out as is happening in Toronto. Timing is difficult, but lenders would become more insistent on basic risk assessment fundamentals such as the Income Approach to valuation instead of a rubber stamp and a drive-by appraisal. 

Sentiment change is an investment killer and in Canada it would not take much to gather momentum as evidenced in my ongoing Federal Direct Investment plot which has been negative for almost 20 years, and which widened dramatically in 2015. Capital flows are net positive going out of Canada because investors want better returns which is why the oil majors are leaving Alberta for less regulatory and lower cost of production environments.

A March 2000 stock market correction event would lend credence to my February 22, 2017 post Need For Speed which posits that a housing correction could unfold in a much shorter time span than what Harry Dent has in mind especially with Trump-O-Nomics in the house.
​

Al Gore on the Solar Revolution - TED Talk Clip 1.50 min
2 solar home systems sold every minute in Bangladesh

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    "Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement; and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana Vol. I, Reason in Common Sense​​
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