HISTORY & READINGS at Brian Ripley's Canadian Housing Price Charts & Plunge-O-Meter

Commodity Super Cycle

10/24/2018

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As I have been pointing out on my chart of TSX INDEXES for Energy, Real Estate, Financial Services, Gold and the Bank of Canada Commodities in $CAD, that...

...the Thompson Reuters CRB chart embedded in the chart shows that global commodities measured in USD has been dropping since 2008, although recently since September (2018), there has been a near term rally in commodities... BUT

...since Oct 3, 2018, the Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Index has been coiling down (MarketWatch.com).

On my Twitter Feed from @hks55 came their chart suggesting that the commodity super cycle is poised for another leg down due to China's slowdown in credit creation that had spurred the commodity boom as Kyle Bass illustrates in this comparison between Chinese credit creation and their GDP (the link includes the 41 second video).

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China’s Slower Credit Growth
Underscores Worries Over Economy
Bloomberg, Aug 2018

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Equities and Bonds

10/14/2018

Why The Stock Market Is Heading For Disaster
In this presentation, Clarity Financial's economic analyst Jesse Colombo explains why the U.S. stock market is experiencing a dangerous bubble that is going to burst violently and cause serious damage to the underlying economy. Published on Oct 11, 2018

Hat tip to Jesse Colombo for the following 14 minute video that includes the following 20 long term charts:

S&P 500 since 1997
Percent equity gains since 2009
Interest rates since 1997
Real Fed Funds rate since 1990
U.S. corp debt since 1980
U.S. corp debt as a percent of GDP since 1980
Buybacks and dividends paid vs S&P 500 value since 2000
S&P 500 vs NYSE margin debt as percent of GDP since 1997
Retail investor allocation to stocks vs cash since 1997
CBOE volatility index (VIX) since 1997
St Louis financial stress index since 1997
BAML U.S. high yield spread since 1997
Cyclically adjusted P/E ratio since 1980
U.S. stock market capitalization to GDP ratio since 1971
Tobins Q ratio since 1902
U.S. net corp profits as a percent of GNP since 1947
FAANG stocks vs S&P 500 since 2009
Fed Funds rate and recessions since 1997
Financial banking crises and recessions since 1977
10-2 year treasuries spread since 1976

Trump Is Completely Misguided On Interest Rates

If the Fed or other central bank voluntarily abandons further credit expansion (most commonly by raising interest rates), the credit and asset bubble will experience a deflationary bust. Deflationary episodes entail credit busts, falling consumer prices, bear markets in stocks and housing prices, and falling wages. If the central bank decides to never put an end to the credit expansion (for example, if the Fed never raised rates), however, the result would be a runaway credit and asset bubble that leads to a severe decrease in the value of the currency and high rates of inflation. The latter scenario is what would occur if President Trump got his way – hardly a desirable outcome for the economy. To summarize, the Fed is crazy – they’re crazy for creating such a large bubble in the first place via loose monetary policy, but not for raising interest rates and normalizing their monetary policy. Jesse Colombo, Oct 17, 2018

Market Bear Hussman Says Stocks Could Lose $20 Trillion

To state the obvious, bull markets do not last forever, and inevitably are followed by bear markets. Likewise, economic expansions also must end at some point, followed by recessions, and recessions typically are accompanied by bear markets. John Hussman, Oct 15, 2018

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The table above from current stock market bears is warning about a pending major stock market correction of 20%, 30%, 40%, 50% or 60% while past major corrections came in at 83% in 1929, 34% in 1987, 49% in 2000, and 57% in 2007.

My fantasy Plunge-O-Meter for September 2018 is showing a potential 51% average drop for Canadian housing prices for the 6 biggest markets in Canada if buyers go on strike.

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Buyers outside of Canada in other housing bubble cities are thinning in number.

There's trouble ahead in the global housing market
Source: Business Insider July 2018

Toronto: Prices clearly peaked in early 2017. Prices are now down 3% vs last year. (Toronto SF Detached are down 17% from the peak. See the Sept 30, 2018 Plunge-O-Meter)

Syndey: Compared to last year, prices are now down 5% and supply has ballooned 22%.

Stockholm & Vancouver: Over a recent 6-month period, prices in the luxury property market fell 9% and 7.6%, respectively.

New York City: In Q1 2018, prices were down 8% YoY and sales were down 25%. NYC's luxury properties fared even worse.

San Francisco: After hitting a record price high in January, the city has seen a rare spring decline in prices, while rents across the SF Bay Area are starting to "cool off"

Bond King Gundlach predicts yields
much higher before this move ends

"If you look at the charts and you look at the way the market's behaving and you think about the trends that are underneath the bond market, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see the 30-year [yield] go to 4 percent before this move of the breakout above 3.25 percent is over," he said on "Halftime Report" Thursday. CNBC, Oct 11, 2018

Bond King Gundlach predicts yields are headed much higher before this move ends from CNBC.

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Divergence

9/28/2018

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While we wait for the September real estate sales, inventory and price data to be released next week, Chris Kimble today makes the observation that real estate proxies in the equity markets are behaving à la 2007.

Says Chris Kimble Sept 28, 2018:

"This 4-pack (chart above) compares the price action of today with the price action of the 2007 highs in the Dow Jones Home Construction Index, Bank Index & Real Estate.

Before the S&P peaked in 2007, Home Construction, Banks and Real Estate started creating a series of lower highs, diverging with the S&P.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am– Divergences similar to 2007 are taking place of late.

The long-term trend for each of these Stock indices reams up at this time! Stock market bulls hope that it’s different this time and that these divergences are just noise."

I have been making a similar observation on my chart of Housing Price Momentum for Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto Single Family Detached Prices and the TSX Real Estate Index.

"In August 2018 Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto SFD price momentum hovered about the flat line while the TSX Real Estate Index cash buyer momentum ticked back up to the nearby highs."

Notice on my chart of August 2018 below, the July 2007 TSX Real Estate Index tested its highs yet on the ground in the physical world, the price momentum of Calgary Single Family Detached Prices plummeted, while Vancouver SFD prices coiled their way towards the eventual lows and while Toronto's SFD prices made their eventual way towards their 2008 lows to be followed by Vancouver and Calgary into their 2009 lows. Is it different this time? Stay tuned.

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Hilliard MacBeth "When the Bubble Bursts"
Top 5 predictions for Canada's housing markets in 2018
BNN Interview September 28, 2018

Market Timing

4/30/2018

As we wait for the April real estate data to be released next week, let's take another look at the month end U.S. S&P 500 via Lance Roberts at realinvestmentadvice.com

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"With portfolios still weighted towards equity, but overweight in cash and shorter-duration fixed income, we can afford to sit still into next week and allow the market to choose its path."

"We can afford to sit still..." Yes in the cash markets, sitting still is an option with risk management in place. But in real estate portfolios, if a correction or major negative price trend develops, everyone is involved unless sellers can successfully get ahead of the change in trend. But that requires acting before a wide acceptance of a new paradigm is acknowledged. By that time, buyers will have gone on strike as they wait for their opportunity to lead the market.

Lance argues in the chart above that the...

Intermediate-Term Picture Remains Bearish

On a intermediate-term basis, both of our weekly “sell signals” remain, and as shown below, the market once again failed at its overhead trend line last week as well as the downtrend resistance from the previous peaks. These failures keep downward pressure on the market as prices continue to follow the “path of least resistance.”

The weekly chart also shows the rare “buy” and “sell” signals issued on a longer-term basis. Currently, as the market struggles with its current correction process, it is also very close to triggering a more important “sell signal” which could indicate a further correctionary process over the next several months.

Over the last 25-years, these sell signals have only been triggered 5-other times.

1. At the peak of the market prior to the “Asian Contagion”
2. Just prior to the peak of the market in 2000
3. At the peak of the market in 2007
4. At the peak of the market 2011 as QE-2 ended and the U.S.was facing the “debt ceiling debate.”
5. Near the peak of the market from the collision of the end QE-3, the “taper tantrum” and “Brexit.”

I can't find much of a record to suggest that a violent drop in stock market equities will necessarily drag real estate prices down, but a confluence of rising rates (Globe & Mail), stress testing (Global News), foreign buyer taxes (Financial Post), labour force displacement (Canadian Underwriter) and present historic real estate valuations (my 6 city chart) is a negative to price growth.

But I did find this chart here of the S&P 500 vs the Case Shiller U.S. Housing Index:

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It is clear that some sort of correlation exists between stock values and real estate values. Stocks started their recent bull run in 2009. As you can see from the chart above, real estate values didn’t start moving up steadily until 2012. So there is a lag here. But what is interesting is the correction in stock values in 2008 matched up with real estate values. In fact, real estate values started trending lower before the market crash. DoctorHousingBubble.com

In January 2018 the S&P 500, DOW and TSX peaked.

Toronto real estate peaked in 1Q 2017 although condo prices hit a new price high last month.

Vancouver prices peaked 3Q 2017 and like Toronto, strata prices are still peaking as of last month.

Calgary prices peaked 2Q 2017 with condo prices hitting their high back in 3Q 2016

U.S. vs Canada Private Debt to GDP

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Steve Keen "Can we avoid another financial crisis?"

The U.S. and the U.K. can but China, Australia, Canada, Belgium, Norway, and Sweden are next. (paraphrased)

Melt Up

3/31/2018

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As we wait for the first week of April to unfold and the March real estate data to come in, questions about the stock market's melt-up comes via @anilvohra69

Anil, a retired UBS rates options trader, quotes investment strategist Jeremy Grantham:

Bubbles have a blowoff phase lasting 21 months. Using a 5% threshold, the run from Feb 16 to Dec 17 was 22 months.

Hence the question "Have we seen the melt-up?" It certainly appears that way for Toronto Real Estate (as of February 2018 data) and the March data may add even more weight to the thesis.

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During Toronto's 21 month "melt-up", listing levels crashed as the fear of missing out kept sellers out of the market.

Post melt-up, Toronto sales are testing the lows as buyers fear getting in.

Markets are related. Real Estate valuations are not immune.

Weak hands will offer up their assets first and in Canada we have a lot of household debt that eventually will face term renewals and the official stress test which is the greater of either the Bank of Canada’s five-year benchmark rate, now 5.14%, or the rate offered by a lender plus another 2%.

If you are thinking of 'buying the dip' make sure your income is amortized over the length of your mortgage. In a melt down, the erosion of net worth will shift a lender's risk management exercise to more closely examine the strength and security of your net income.

As we know employment income growth is facing profound challenges.

Global Risks 2018
According to the IMF, over the past three decades 53% of countries have seen an increase in income inequality, with this trend particularly pronounced in advanced economies. Furthermore, today’s economic strains are likely to sow the seeds for longer-term problems. High levels of personal debt, coupled with inadequate savings and pension provisions, are one reason to expect that frustrations may deepen in the years ahead. We highlight four concerns: (1) persistent inequality and unfairness, (2) domestic and international political tensions, (3) environmental dangers and (4) cyber vulnerabilities. We conclude by reflecting on the increased dangers of systemic breakdown. World Economic Forum

Strongest 'Bubble Burst'' Alarm Just Went Off
Jeremy Grantham 2018

Inversion Report

1/27/2018

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In December 2017, the 10yr less 2yr Canada Government bond spread narrowed to just 32 beeps away from inversion.

In April 2006 it was 33bps away and narrowing until it was fully inverted in May, June and July of 2007, and then central banks panicked and goosed the spread to widening again and by November 2007 it was 31bps again.

A year and half later the wide reached 230 beeps in May 2009, 2 months after the pit of gloom crash bottom.

We should start watching for further narrowing now especially with equity markets at their historical tops.

The Macro Model" chart below is from Crescat Capital with a few of my notations about Canadian debt levels which are at historical highs. NILS JENSON from Crescat Capital on January 27, 2018 made the observation that:

Market history is littered with downturns that followed new Republican presidents: Hoover (1929), Eisenhower (1953), Nixon (1969), Reagan (1981), and Bush (2001). The Trump bubble will likely prove to be the mother of all Republican presidential ebullience bubbles. Trade wars are not positive at all for the markets. They are what exacerbated the Great Depression and they should be one of the key triggers of the bursting of the China bubble.

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Here's Who Could Lose the Most in a U.S.-China Trade War
Bloomberg, January 23, 2017

Oil-O-Nomics

3/9/2017

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It's a big day in the Oil Markets as the price of crude slips below the sentiment price of US$50 the list is growing of oil majors who are withdrawing from further investment in Alberta.

Also yields in the bond markets are continuing their rising trend; ie: the cost to finance is rising.

MAR 9/17 Lower oil prices have the potential to take down the stock market Market Watch
MAR 9/17 Energy Credit Risk Soars As Crude Carnage Continues Zero Hedge
MAR 9/17 U.S. Solar Market Has Record-Breaking Year, Total Market Poised to Triple in Next Five Years SEIA Org
MAR 9/17 Canadian crude just got a lot more Canadian as another global giant bails on the oilsands Financial Post
MAR 8/17 World Doubled Its Solar Power Capacity in 2016 Futurism
FEB 26/17 With Shale Oil Production Like This, Who Needs Trump? Bloomberg
FEB 22/17 Exxon will leave 3.6-billion barrels of tar sands oil in the ground Environmental Defense
FEB 14/17 Don't Hold Your Breath For $70 Oil Prices Forbes
JAN 15/17 Future of the oilsands: the good, the bad and the ugly CBC News
DEC 14/16 Norwegian giant pulls out of Alberta's oilsands National Observer
APR 21/16 Kurzweil predicts solar industry dominance in 12 years Electrek

The first bullet point above should concern the Canadian real estate markets. If a stock market correction gets sparked, the combination of rising interest rates and falling equity values should spook the real estate bull. Mortgage term renewals will go up in price and the bank of mom and dad will reconsider the risk of the rising cost of money. Parents, especially retirement aged or close to it, will not be too eager to take on more debt and purchasers of any age will have to consider timing as an investment criteria rather than buying anything with a front door for fear of missing out as is happening in Toronto. Timing is difficult, but lenders would become more insistent on basic risk assessment fundamentals such as the Income Approach to valuation instead of a rubber stamp and a drive-by appraisal.

Sentiment change is an investment killer and in Canada it would not take much to gather momentum as evidenced in my ongoing Federal Direct Investment plot which has been negative for almost 20 years, and which widened dramatically in 2015. Capital flows are net positive going out of Canada because investors want better returns which is why the oil majors are leaving Alberta for less regulatory and lower cost of production environments.

A March 2000 stock market correction event would lend credence to my February 22, 2017 post Need For Speed which posits that a housing correction could unfold in a much shorter time span than what Harry Dent has in mind especially with Trump-O-Nomics in the house.

Al Gore on the Solar Revolution - TED Talk Clip 1.50 min
2 solar home systems sold every minute in Bangladesh

Need for Speed

2/22/2017

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Dan Loney's February 19, 2017 blog post details an update from Harry Dent about Dent's view on a probable correction low for Vancouver housing prices. I have mashed up Dent's retracement projection with my Plunge-O-Meter fantasy.

Apparently Dent has increased his retracement target from a 43% to a 64% drop from the highs of last year.

A few months ago I spent three days with world renown economist Harry Dent. We had a conversation regarding the state of Vancouver area real estate. He stated that he expected the real estate market to correct 43% in Vancouver from it’s high. This week his office sent me this chart which shows a projected crash of -64%. (FEB 19, 2017)

For a few years now a variety of analysts have been offering downside targets and depending on their bearish points of view, we have seen a rough correction range of anywhere from 10 to 50%. Obviously no one knows what the final number will be nor the duration of time it will take to unfold.

The classic Fibonacci retracements are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.

But there are just too many interference inputs that could either reinforce or cancel any potential arc of change. The most basic influence I point to is the ability to turn debt into equity. If one is highly leveraged against a real estate holding, it's not a problem as long as there is sufficient cash flow to service the debt. But this can be a very fragile relationship because of the risk from unaccounted inputs that began their historical arcs decades ago (Technology, Emerging Markets, Governance, Demographics etc).

The Bank of Canada estimated that more than 20 percent of all insured mortgages were contracted by households that have loan-to-income ratios of more than 450 percent. Hilliard MacBeth for MACLEANS October 12, 2016

As I say, my Plunge-O-Meter is a fantasy model based simply on the current snapshot of how much of the correction has already occurred and if the rate of change continues at the same tempo.

Dent figures the Vancouver bubble began in 2003. I suggest it began in 2005. Dent projects another 14 years (2032) before we reach the price lows; the Plunge-O-Meter currently targets the fall of 2021, or 4.75 years from now. Could it happen? Maybe.

On the price chart in the spring of 2005 there was a 4-6 month plateau period while buyers and sellers twitched like a herd. When the credit spreads narrowed and the yield curve began its journey towards inversion, the commodity stampede began. Plunge-O-Meter

We are on a cusp of change with regards to the yield curve to steepening and credit spreads to widening. (Bob Hoye JAN 27, 2017)

I suggest that there would probably need some very dramatic inputs to change the current sentiment of buyers in Vancouver who, although they have been thinning out according to sales volumes, are still willing to short cash at what appears to be the top of the market that has been in place since July 2016 and a clear divergence from the ebullience of today's Trumpian stock and bond markets.

I think the input drama that changes the Vancouver housing price regime has to come from these very liquid, fast moving stock and bond markets.

Whatever the sentiment shock is, that causes another extreme selloff (Wikipedia list of stock market crashes and bear markets), the need for speed to turn debt into equity will expose the weak hands very quickly, they need to act fast and get ahead of the competition.

Only deep pocketed knife jugglers will prevail until we approach the final lows and then new buyers will be rewarded without any technical market timing analysis. Long before that, we may see a rebirth of interest in the income approach fundamental.

Charles Nenner Interview February 21, 2017

Nenner's historical work suggests the stock market rolls over September 2017 (get out by July) and bottoms in 2020-2021 which dovetails with the Plunge-O-Meter. This is not correlation but we do know from history that the animal spirits can change very suddenly.

Market Crash Recession
by the 5th of November, 2017

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Peter Leeds summarizes the bear argument below. Notice that Peter's comments on U.S. high end Real Estate applies to the detached market in Vancouver right now.

Yellen Will Raise Rates in March
FEB 15, 2017 BNN Interview of Jim Rickards

March 15, 2017 is the Date to Watch
Everything Will Grind to a Halt
David Stockman FEB 27, 2017

Trumponomics

Moderated by Prof. Sebastian Edwards, a former chief economist of the World Bank; this discussion reveals the surprising insights of UCLA Anderson Forecast economists Prof. Ed Leamer and Prof. Jerry Nickelsburg, FEB 16, 2017

David Frum on Trump
"This is the most phoney baloney administration ever"

The election of Donald Trump could mean a gradual shift in the nature of the American political system. The much vaunted checks and balances might be unable to stop a slide into a new kind of authoritarianism. This is how David Frum, senior editor of The Atlantic and a former speech writer, imagines one of the possible futures that await the U.S. He joins The Agenda to talk about political implications under Donald Trump. Published on Youtube Feb 9, 2017

The Rolling Stones - Doom and Gloom

Japan-ification

8/31/2015

Inflation Rate Canada, US, Germany, Japan

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While we wait for StatsCan to release new national economic monthly data beginning September 1st and for the various Canadian metro real estate boards to publish their sales and price data later in the week, here are a few charts (above) tracking inflation data. Since the 1980's inflation highs in Canada, the U.S., Germany and Japan the inflation trend has been falling and now flirting with negative rates. The MIT Billion Prices Project is indeed in a negative state Y/Y.

Governments and the private sector want inflation to offset the cost of converting debt into equity, but Mother Nature is not obliging. As I reported last June "We are leveraging the lowest priced credit for the most expensive non-productive real estate at the worst possible time in history.

Over at Bloomberg, Tom DeMark talks about the outlook for the Chinese and U.S. stock markets. "...we're heading into that period of the year when the market is susceptible to market declines September and October."

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Chart Above: The biggest stock market declines since the 1980s:

How bad was Monday's stock market crash?
by Timothy B. Lee (Vox.com) on August 24, 2015

On Monday, August 24, 2015 the stock market posted its largest decline in years, sparking fear that the US is on the verge of another recession. After initially plunging 6.4 percent in a matter of minutes, it recovered some ground and ended the day down 3.6 percent.

The chart by Javier Zarracina is dominated by October 19, 1987, when the stock market plunged by 22 percent. This huge drop wasn't followed by a recession, and the market recovered the lost ground within two years.

There were big declines in October 1997 and August 1998. Again, these proved not to have any broader significance, as the bull market would continue until 2000.

There were three big drops during the 2000-'01 bear market that preceded the recession of the early George W. Bush years.

The stock market suffered 11 big drops in the last four months of 2007, during the Great Recession that was officially under way by then.

In August 2011, the stock market panicked over the possibility that President Obama and congressional Republicans would be unable to resolve the debt ceiling fight, leading to three big declines.

So sometimes a big stock market decline is a sign of deeper economic problems. Other times, it's not. It's too early to say which category Monday's crash is in.

Ten Dollar Oil

8/19/2015

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"The negative feedback loop of falling stocks in a world of extremely tepid global demand might just make the crazy idea of $10 oil a lot less crazy sounding" Jack Crooks, Black Swan Capital, August 11, 2015

"What risks do asset price bubbles pose for the economy? Credit-financed house price bubbles have emerged as a particularly dangerous phenomenon." Jorda, Schularick, Taylor, Leveraged Bubbles June 2015

“leaning against the wind” and “mopping up after”

From a monetary and macroprudential policy point of view, our findings help understand the trade-offs involved in the “leaning against the wind” and “mopping up after” strategies. We show that when credit growth fuels asset price bubbles, the dangers for the financial sector and the real economy are much more substantial. The damage done to the economy by the bursting of credit-boom bubbles is significant and long-lasting. Jorda, Schularick, Taylor, Leveraged Bubbles June 2015

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OIL PRICE COLLAPSE of 2015 - Harry Dent

In 4Q 2001 & 1Q 2002 oil was below $20/barrel.

<<Previous

Commodity Super Cycle

China’s Slower Credit Growth
Underscores Worries Over Economy
Bloomberg, Aug 2018

Equities and Bonds

Trump Is Completely Misguided On Interest Rates

Market Bear Hussman Says Stocks Could Lose $20 Trillion

Bond King Gundlach predicts yields
much higher before this move ends

Divergence

Hilliard MacBeth "When the Bubble Bursts"
Top 5 predictions for Canada's housing markets in 2018
BNN Interview September 28, 2018

Market Timing

U.S. vs Canada Private Debt to GDP

Steve Keen "Can we avoid another financial crisis?"

Melt Up

Strongest 'Bubble Burst'' Alarm Just Went Off
Jeremy Grantham 2018

Inversion Report

Here's Who Could Lose the Most in a U.S.-China Trade War
Bloomberg, January 23, 2017

Oil-O-Nomics

Al Gore on the Solar Revolution - TED Talk Clip 1.50 min
2 solar home systems sold every minute in Bangladesh

Need for Speed

Charles Nenner Interview February 21, 2017

Market Crash Recession
by the 5th of November, 2017

Yellen Will Raise Rates in March
FEB 15, 2017 BNN Interview of Jim Rickards

March 15, 2017 is the Date to Watch
Everything Will Grind to a Halt
David Stockman FEB 27, 2017

Trumponomics

Moderated by Prof. Sebastian Edwards, a former chief economist of the World Bank; this discussion reveals the surprising insights of UCLA Anderson Forecast economists Prof. Ed Leamer and Prof. Jerry Nickelsburg, FEB 16, 2017

David Frum on Trump
"This is the most phoney baloney administration ever"

The Rolling Stones - Doom and Gloom

Japan-ification

Ten Dollar Oil

“leaning against the wind” and “mopping up after”

OIL PRICE COLLAPSE of 2015 - Harry Dent

History, Charts &
Curated Readings

Archives

Categories

China’s Slower Credit Growth Underscores Worries Over Economy ​Bloomberg, Aug 2018 ​

Trump Is Completely Misguided On Interest Rates

​Market Bear Hussman Says Stocks Could Lose $20 Trillion

Bond King Gundlach predicts yields much higher before this move ends

Hilliard MacBeth "When the Bubble Bursts" Top 5 predictions for Canada's housing markets in 2018 ​BNN Interview September 28, 2018

​U.S. vs Canada Private Debt to GDP

Steve Keen "Can we avoid another financial crisis?"

​Strongest 'Bubble Burst'' Alarm Just Went Off Jeremy Grantham 2018

Here's Who Could Lose the Most in a U.S.-China Trade War Bloomberg, January 23, 2017

Al Gore on the Solar Revolution - TED Talk Clip 1.50 min 2 solar home systems sold every minute in Bangladesh

Charles Nenner Interview February 21, 2017

Market Crash Recession by the 5th of November, 2017

Yellen Will Raise Rates in March FEB 15, 2017 BNN Interview of Jim Rickards

March 15, 2017 is the Date to Watch Everything Will Grind to a HaltDavid Stockman FEB 27, 2017

Trumponomics

Moderated by Prof. Sebastian Edwards, a former chief economist of the World Bank; this discussion reveals the surprising insights of UCLA Anderson Forecast economists Prof. Ed Leamer and Prof. Jerry Nickelsburg, FEB 16, 2017

David Frum on Trump "This is the most phoney baloney administration ever"

The Rolling Stones - Doom and Gloom

“leaning against the wind” and “mopping up after”

OIL PRICE COLLAPSE of 2015 - Harry Dent

History, Charts &Curated Readings

Archives

Categories

China’s Slower Credit Growth
Underscores Worries Over Economy
Bloomberg, Aug 2018

Market Bear Hussman Says Stocks Could Lose $20 Trillion

Bond King Gundlach predicts yields
much higher before this move ends

Hilliard MacBeth "When the Bubble Bursts"
Top 5 predictions for Canada's housing markets in 2018
BNN Interview September 28, 2018

U.S. vs Canada Private Debt to GDP

Strongest 'Bubble Burst'' Alarm Just Went Off
Jeremy Grantham 2018

Here's Who Could Lose the Most in a U.S.-China Trade War
Bloomberg, January 23, 2017

Al Gore on the Solar Revolution - TED Talk Clip 1.50 min
2 solar home systems sold every minute in Bangladesh

Market Crash Recession
by the 5th of November, 2017

Yellen Will Raise Rates in March
FEB 15, 2017 BNN Interview of Jim Rickards

March 15, 2017 is the Date to Watch
Everything Will Grind to a Halt
David Stockman FEB 27, 2017

David Frum on Trump
"This is the most phoney baloney administration ever"

History, Charts &
Curated Readings