CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

"New lending activity and refinancing have contracted significantly since the beginning of 2018, a culmination of regulatory pressure, enhanced scrutiny following the banking royal commission, and the self-fulfilling consequence of slowing house prices driving an investor pullback... A rising cost of credit represents a blunter instrument for slowing lending, since it impacts both owner-occupiers and investors in parallel,"JP Morgan's Henry St John ABC.AU NEWS Sept 2018

​Canadian real estate sales are feeling the pinch of higher interest rates, and consumer credit isn’t far behind. Bank of Canada (BoC) numbers show household debt printed a new record high. Despite the record high, the rate of growth continues to slow for consumer debt levels. The decelerating growth is yet another indicator that the credit cycle has peaked. ​Better Dwelling, July 2018

Market Rate Outlook: One more hike this year plus two more hikes next year. The market is not fully pricing in the next BoC rate increase until December... Canadians are now more sensitive to higher rates than ever before. That means consumption is slowing faster with every 1/4% BoC rate increase.  RateSpy.com Sept 2018

Canada's economy is set to slow down even with a NAFTA deal, economists say:

"Our research finds that even with a NAFTA deal in place, the long-desired rotation in growth towards exports and business investment will be sluggish and won't offset the coming slowdown in household spending and housing activity," Royce Mendes, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets

Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, is also expecting growth next year to slow to 1.8 per cent, as reduced consumer spending and housing activity will weigh on growth.

RBC senior economist Nathan Janzen said the bank doesn't publish forecasts for 2020, but agrees that growth is shifting lower.

"We do expect a more modest pace of consumer spending going forward, and while housing activity should remain a contributor to growth, this sector as well should see more modest growth relative to the past," said Brian DePratto, senior economist at TD Bank.

​Quote Sources: CBC News Sept, 2018

"The one-million square foot Toronto centre will be Amazon’s sixth facility in Ontario and ninth in Canada." Financial Post, July 2018

CLICK INFO-GRAPHIC TO ENLARGE

​"Stabilization should not be interpreted as the start of another strong rally," they warned (TD Bank economists Derek Burleton and Rishi Sondhi). That's because mortgage rates are on the rise, and home affordability levels have reached their worst levels in a quarter century... in fact historical data shows that over the past half century, inflation-adjusted house prices in Toronto fell for about a third of the time. huffingtonpost.ca, Sept 2018

CLICK CHARTS TO ENLARGE

CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

​In December 2017, the 10yr less 2yr Canada Government bond spread narrowed to just 32 beeps away from inversion.

Market history is littered with downturns that followed new Republican presidents: Hoover (1929), Eisenhower (1953), Nixon (1969), Reagan (1981), and Bush (2001). The Trump bubble will likely prove to be the mother of all Republican presidential ebullience bubbles. Trade wars are not positive at all for the markets. They are what exacerbated the Great Depression and they should be one of the key triggers of the bursting of the China bubble.

CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

Here's Who Could Lose the Most in a U.S.-China Trade War
Bloomberg, January 23, 2017

CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

Investment decisions are made because one believes there will be a reward. Globally, both corporations and households are drawing down their savings and making investments. But In Canada reward seekers are heavily conditioned.

Carlos Murillo (Conference Board of Canada economist), predicts Canadian (oil sector) industry costs will jump by an average of 13 per cent per year between 2017 and 2021... the peak investment level was $62 billion in 2014... "  The Canadian Press March 13, 2017

Expectations for Canada’s housing market are heating up, with more than half of respondents in a weekly telephone survey predicting home prices will rise, the first time the measure has topped 50 percent in records dating back to 2008... “Consumer sentiment on real estate has gone from hot to hotter,” said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos... The latest burst of housing momentum has led policy makers to question whether it’s being led by supply and demand or by speculation.

ITEM: China Commodity Crash Accelerates As Traders "Forced To Destock" ZeroHedge May 9, 2017

​As Citi warned over the weekend, "We suspect that a good number of physical traders that are financially leveraged up to five times have been forced to destock due to rising short-term borrowing costs and the recent sharp price corrections... "Citigroup isn’t alone in saying that some traders may be compelled to sell holdings into a falling market as China tightens. Shanghai Cifco Futures Co. said this week signs are emerging that traders are dumping their holdings.

St. Germain - Sure Thing

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

​New York Governor Cuomo signs bill that deals huge blow to Airbnb NY Post Oct 21, 2015

An investigation of Airbnb rentals from 2010 to 2014 by the state attorney general’s office found that 72 percent of the units in New York City were illegal, with commercial operators constituting 6 percent of the hosts and supplying 36 percent of the rentals.

Toronto drafting Airbnb regulations as available units soar
Globe and Mail​ Oct 19, 2016

Toronto city bureaucrats say Airbnb rentals in Toronto doubled from 2014 to 2015, with 9,460 rooms or entire units rented via the site that year at least once – as well as hundreds more listed on other sites such as HomeAway, VRBO, FlipKey, Roomorama, Craigslist and Kijiji. In some cities across North America, short-term rentals are allowed but licences are required and only primary residences can be used. In some places, the number of nights a year a unit can be rented is capped; in Seattle, it is 90 nights.

Neighbour complaints led Vancouver to sue over Airbnb rental
CBC News Oct 18, 2016

Chief Vancouver Licensing Inspector Andreea Toma said more lawsuits may be in the works against homeowners who are essentially running commercial enterprises in the form of black market hotel suites. The city of Vancouver wants an order prohibiting the rental of the suite for periods of less than one month.
 
City of Vancouver files lawsuit to shut down Airbnb host
Globe and Mail Oct 17, 2016

​Although almost 5,000 listings appear on the Airbnb site for Vancouver, both city officials and Airbnb agree that the number of people who rent out units on a year-round basis is much lower.

And from Fortune Magazine Oct 21, 2016

In Berlin, Airbnb is fighting a city demand that it turn over information to help enforce a new law imposing fines of up $110,000 on people renting out more than 50% of their homes for less than two months—among the strictest regulations worldwide.

In Barcelona, Airbnb’s third-largest market in Europe, the city is imposing fines that exceed $65,000 for listings without proper licenses. 

In Amsterdam city officials in April started scraping data from Airbnb and other short-term rental websites to root out illegal hosts because Airbnb will not turn over details on violators.

In Los Angeles, a study by the pro-labor Los Angeles Alliance for a New Economy found that property owners with two or more listings generated 44% of all Airbnb revenue in Los Angeles.

In New York City, the state Attorney General found that, between 2010 and 2014, more than 300,000 Airbnb reservations violated the law, representing about $304 million in booking revenue, with about $40 million of that going to Airbnb.
​

Airbnb Home Rental Nightmares

The Future is 10 Years Away - Uber Freight

CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

"Whatever the cause..." ​The WTO in their concluding paragraph from their September 27, 2016 Trade Statistics and Outlook is not sure why global trade growth is declining.

A number of reasons have been advanced to explain the decline in the ratio of trade growth to GDP growth in recent years, including the changes in the import content of demand, absence of trade liberalization, creeping protectionism, a contraction of global value chains (GVCs), and possibly the increasing role of the digital economy and e-commerce, but all have likely played a role. Whatever the cause, the recent run of weak trade, and economic, growth suggests the need for a better understanding of changing global economic relationships. The WTO, and other international organizations, are working hard to understand this current evolution and its implications for continued growth.

On a provincial basis, Ontario has the lowest proportion — 41.1 per cent — of jobs at high risk of automation, while P.E.I. has the highest with over 45 per cent of jobs at high risk of automation over the next 10 to 20 years.

Bob Dylan wins Nobel Prize for Literature
​BBC News October 13, 2016

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

While we wait for the Clinton Trump toss up at Hofstra U. tonight, let's look at some data that affects everyone on the continent, ie: manufacturing wages measured in USD since the gloom of 2009 in Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. I have been showing for some time now, that Canada's net Federal Direct Investment balance has been negative for nearly 20 years and last year it widened significantly. ​

​Canadians are just $200 away from being overwhelmed by debt, new survey finds Financial Post September 28, 2016

> Calgary-based MNP LLP, said 56 per cent of those polled — up from 48 per cent surveyed six months ago — are close to facing negative cash flow should they take on up to another $200 in monthly debt.

>The online survey of of 1,502 Canadians conducted between Sept. 6 and Sept. 12 also found 31 per cent are already not paying their bills on time, making them technically insolvent, MNP says.

> A survey this month from TransUnion found 718,000 Canadians can’t even absorb a 25-basis point increase in interest rates without being in a negative cash flow situation. One percentage point would drive 917,000 over the edge, the credit rating agency found.

> In another recent study, the Canadian Payroll Association said 48 per cent of Canadians couldn’t make ends meets if they missed just one paycheque – a dire picture of a country living paycheque-to-paycheque.

> MNP said there is some positive news about debt costs. More Canadians now say they are concerned about their debt: 52 per cent, up from 43 per cent six months ago.
​

ITEM: BlackBerry Abandons Its Phone New York Times September 28, 2016 - In recent years, BlackBerry has cut thousands of jobs and closed several operating centers, including one in this city (Halifax), over the last three years. A company spokeswoman declined to discuss any future layoffs.

"Vancouver in Canada has been identified by Swiss bank UBS as the global financial center with the riskiest housing bubble."

"Currently, house prices in Vancouver seem clearly out of step with economic fundamentals, and are in bubble risk territory."​

CLICK TO CHART TO ENLARGE

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

"OSFI tells some banks to test for sharp drops in Vancouver, Toronto housing markets" July 26, 2016 CBC News

“B.C.’s 15% tax on foreign homebuyers could drive money to other parts of Canada” July 26, 2016 Financial Post 

"Tory won't rule out a tax on foreign real estate buyers in Toronto" July 28, 2016 Toronto Sun

​"Chinese-language media up in arms over B.C. foreign buyer tax"  July 28, 2016 Globe & Mail

“Does this set a dangerous precedent in the minds of foreign investors across Canada?" July 29, 2016 Mortgage Broker News

The Automated Payment Transaction Tax

In its simplest form, the APT tax consists of a flat tax levied on all transactions. The tax is automatically assessed and collected when transactions are settled through the electronic technology of the banking/payments system.

The APT tax introduces progressivity through the tax base since the volume of final payments includes exchanges of titles to property and is therefore more highly skewed than the conventional income or consumption tax base.

The wealthy carry out a disproportionate share of total transactions and therefore bear a disproportionate burden of the tax despite its flat rate structure.

The automated recording of all APT tax payments by firms and individuals creates a degree of transparency and perceived fairness that induces greater tax compliance. Also, the tax has lower administrative and compliance cost.

Think about the desirability and feasibility of replacing the present system of personal and corporate income, sales, excise, capital gains, import and export duties, gift and estate taxes with a single comprehensive revenue neutral Automated Payment Transaction tax.

The APT tax rate from the original study publication in 2000 achieved the goals of replacing the present system of personal and corporate income, sales, excise, capital gains, import and export duties, gift and estate taxes with a single comprehensive revenue neutral Automated Payment Transaction tax of only 0.15% on each side of the transaction for a total of 0.3% on any financial transaction.

The APT tax proposed is designed as a revenue neutral replacement for the present tax system. It is emphatically not intended as an additional source of revenue. It proposes to broaden the tax base by eliminating all implicit tax expenditures, all exemptions, deductions and credits while adding to the tax base the enormous volume of transactions representing exchanges of property rights to real and financial assets and liabilities. The flat rate tax required to maintain revenue neutrality is estimated to be in the neighborhood of 0.6 percent if total transactions volumes fall to half of their current levels.

With the next renewal (of the “Inflation Control Target”) approaching in 2016, the Bank is focusing its review and research in the following three areas:

1) The Level of the Inflation Target​
2) Financial Stability Considerations in the Formulation of Monetary Policy​
​​3) Measuring Core Inflation

“The social state is advantageous only when all have something and none too much.” A paraphrase of Jean-Jacques Rousseau from his Du Contrat Social ou Principes du Droit Politique of 1762.

How economic inequality harms societies - Richard Wilkinson
"If you want to live the American dream, go to Denmark.”

“A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it."

Real Time with Bill Maher
Michael Moore – Where to Invade Next ​

CLICK CHARTTO ENLARGE

While we wait for the Brexit vote, here is Patrick Ceresna's hour long video explaining in detail his argument for what will trigger the Canadian real estate market selloff. My bullet points from the video are below and the chart (left) shows credit is tightening.

Are You Ready For a Canadian Real Estate Crash?
Patrick Ceresna Chief Derivative Market Strategist
​LearnToTradeGlobal.com (1 hr. 4:35 min)

Bullet Points from the Video Above

June 9, 2016: Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz cautioned that climbing real estate prices have outpaced local economic fundamentals like job creation, immigration and income growth.

June 13, 2016: Financial markets are worried about China because its debt has surged to a record 237% of gross domestic product.

Here's Why China's Economy Will Be So Hard to Fix

CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

FDI-FDO Gap Widens I updated my Canadian Household Debt Chart that has GDP, Net Trade and the FDI In and Out data plotted as well. The 2015 Federal Direct Investment data just came out and the gap between investment capital flowing into Canada and out has widened dramatically such that for every $1 of investment coming into Canada, $1.31 is leaving for jurisdictions that provide greater tax incentives, better yields or cheaper labour.

Canadians for Tax Fairness crunched the numbers and found that Canadian corporations invested almost $40 billion last year in the top 10 tax haven destinations for Canadian capital — taking investment totals since 1990 to $270.2 billion.

Barbados has been the top destination, attracting $79.9 billion in total while seeing its numbers climb 14 per cent in 2015.

Four other countries in Canada's top 10 — Cayman Islands, Bermuda, Switzerland and Hong Kong — all saw year-over-year increases of at least 34 per cent last year.

"The money doesn't just stay there, it goes on to somewhere else," Dennis Howlett, the CEO of the Tax Fairness advocacy group, said in an interview.

"But (corporations) route it through tax havens usually because there are tax advantages for doing so. The returns on the investments get booked in the tax havens so then companies don't have to report it as profits in Canada."

The direct foreign investment figures released Tuesday don't include the billions of dollars that individual Canadians appear to have socked away offshore.

The parliamentary budget office is currently in a battle with the Liberal government over access to tax information that would help it measure the "tax gap" — the amount of revenue lost to Ottawa through a variety of tax dodges, including offshore accounts.

The long-standing issue has been thrust into the international limelight again by the release of the Panama Papers, more than 11 million leaked documents that detail offshore accounts in the Central American country — including, reportedly, hundreds held by Canadians.

Direct foreign investment routed through tax havens "may not be illegal tax evasion but it is most definitely related to tax avoidance, or minimizing taxes paid here in Canada," said Howlett.

"So it does translate to much lower revenues for both federal and provincial governments."

Canadians for Tax Fairness would like to see corporate tax rules tightened up, including requiring that any offshore subsidiaries be more than shell companies by proving they have staff and capital investments such as plants and equipment.

Canada should also follow the lead of some other countries and cap how much corporations can pay in interest to subsidiaries. Corporations with high capital needs frequently borrow from their own subsidiaries at above market rates in order to shift profits offshore, said Howlett.

Since 2000, the federal corporate tax rate in Canada has been cut from 28 per cent to the current rate of 15 per cent.

In 2015-16, corporate income taxes were budgeted at $38.8 billion — or 20 per cent of total federal tax revenues — according to the most recent federal budget. In 2000-01, corporate taxes brought in $28.2 billion, or 24.5 per cent of total federal tax revenues.

CBC News via The Canadian Press, April 27, 2016