HISTORY & READINGS at Brian Ripley's Canadian Housing Price Charts & Plunge-O-Meter

Inflation Deflation Conflation

6/22/2018

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The OECD released their May 2018 Canadian Economic Forecast Summary. Their charts to the left conflates our usual obsession with "flation" which in Latin means to "blow". We worry about whether our investments in production and consumption are going to blow or suck.

Chris Kimble released a June 21st chart triptych "3 Key Economic Indicators May Be Flashing Caution Here"

The monthly charts of Commodities, Crude Oil and U.S. 10 Year Treasuries are at "Long-Term” Fibonacci retracement levels at the same time and could be creating reversal patterns."

"I have a simple goal for my investment research - help people to enlarge portfolios regardless of market direction by looking for patterns at extreme points of "exhaustion" with a high probability of reversing." Chris Kimble

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Energy Bar

5/2/2016

Commodities 1980-2016 & High Yield Defaults

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While we wait for the April real estate data to dribble in, let's look at the commodity sector that peaked in 2011 and is now threatening to break a major uptrend channel and possibly retest the 2006 lows; a time when the Yield Curve inverted and soon after the BoC and U.S. Fed etal went on a ZIRP to NIRP bender in an effort to spark inflation. Clearly low rates have not produced CPI inflation but a speculative frenzy for Yield.

The top panel in the mashup above is the Thomson Reuters Commodity Index chart since the 1980's provided by Kimble Charting Solutions. The commodity index is made up of 18% Energy, 24% Metals, 29% Softs and 29% Agriculture.

The bottom panel is from ZeroHedge and their post underscores that energy junk bonds are at an all time default rate high.

...the energy high-yield default has soared to a record 13% rate, surpassing the 9.7% mark set in 1999, according to Fitch Ratings.

"...energy companies now account for approximately 20 percent of the junk bond market." Michael Snyder, Global Research, December 2014

AND THIS from Bloomberg May 1, 2016 Saudi Arabia's determination to keep pumping more oil into global markets brings to mind its former oil minister Sheikh Yamani, who said back in 2000 that the Stone Age did not end for a lack of stones, and the oil age will not end for a lack of oil.Those working for him at the time, interpreted this as a warning to OPEC about the pursuit of high oil prices: namely, that it would just speed up the development of alternative technologies and drive away customers, leaving oil sitting beneath the ground without buyers.Sixteen years later, the kingdom's leaders seem to have heeded his warning. Both Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and oil minister Ali al-Naimi have said they will no longer subsidize high-cost oil production by limiting supply. If there's oil to be left under the ground, they're determined it won't be Saudi Arabia's.

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Battery Powered Homes

Rhythms and Rhymes

3/13/2014

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Stocks After 5 Years
Real Estate After 7

In case you missed my query on my Real 10 Year Canadian Yield chart 'Is this the start of a "Seven Year Itch"?' Here it is again.
Periodicity: the quality or character of being periodic; the tendency to recur at intervals.