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While we wait for the January real estate data to come in next week, here is an update on the visualization of global temperature change over the last 2019 years.   ​"This reconstruction includes data from a wide variety of proxy records such as tree rings, cave deposits, corals, etc. The warming over the past 50 years is stark compared to the variations that have occurred naturally over the last 2000 years. It is not normal. The invention of the efficient steam engine in 1790 by James Watt kick-started the industrial revolution and our reliance on burning fossil fuels for energy." JAN 30, 2020 by Ed Hawkins (Climate Lab Book​)        Climate scientist in the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) at the University of Reading. IPCC AR5 Contributing Author.

Abstract from Nature Geoscience, July 2019
Multidecadal surface temperature changes may be forced by natural as well as anthropogenic factors, or arise unforced from the climate system. Distinguishing these factors is essential for estimating sensitivity to multiple climatic forcings and the amplitude of the unforced variability. Here we present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a global collection of temperature-sensitive palaeoclimate records. Our reconstructions display synchronous multidecadal temperature fluctuations that are coherent with one another and with fully forced millennial model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 across the Common Era. A substantial portion of pre-industrial (1300–1800 CE) variability at multidecadal timescales is attributed to volcanic aerosol forcing.

​Reconstructions and simulations qualitatively agree on the amplitude of the unforced global mean multidecadal temperature variability, thereby increasing confidence in future projections of climate change on these timescales. The largest warming trends at timescales of 20 years and longer occur during the second half of the twentieth century, highlighting the unusual character of the warming in recent decades.

Our Changing Climate: learning from the past to inform future choices
The Royal Society Kavli Lecture given by Professor Ed Hawkins. May 2019

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...IN AUSTRALIA While we wait for the release of the December real estate data, let's acknowledge the Canadian firefighters serving in Australia. Dozens of Canadians have been there during the holidays helping out and more are on their way by month's end. ​"...this is the first time since 2009 that Canadian firefighters have been sent to Australia. Australian crews helped in B.C. during record-setting wildfire seasons in 2017 and 2018." CBC News Dec 27, 2019

Tracking Climate Extremes Around The World In 2019
NBC News NOW - Dec 24, 2019

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​The bigger influence on Canadian real estate values will be the next decade of our reactions to the exponential growth in climate problems ("very high confidence") global migration pressures and the inevitable expansion towards technological solutions and a new generation of research and development; a new generation of critical thinking.  ​“A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” that is, "Science advances one funeral at a time" Max Planck 1949

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1. Our Globally Changing Climate
KEY FINDINGS

1. The global climate continues to change rapidly compared to the pace of the natural changes in climate that have occurred throughout Earth’s history. Trends in globally-averaged temperature, sea-level rise, upper-ocean heat content, land based ice melt, and other climate variables provide consistent evidence of a warming planet. These observed trends are robust, and have been confirmed by independent research groups around the world. (Very high confidence)
   
   
2. The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation and extreme heat events are increasing in most regions of the world. These trends are consistent with expected physical responses to a warming climate and with climate model studies, although models tend to underestimate the observed trends. The frequency and intensity of such extreme events will very likely continue to rise in the future. Trends for some other types of extreme events, such as floods, droughts, and severe storms, have more regional characteristics. (Very high confidence)
   
   
3. Many lines of evidence demonstrate that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are primarily responsible for the observed climate changes in the industrial era. There are no alternative explanations, and no natural cycles are found in the observational record that can explain the observed changes in climate. (Very high confidence)
   
   
4. Global climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades primarily on the amount of greenhouse (heat trapping) gases emitted globally and the sensitivity of Earth’s climate to those emissions. (Very high confidence)
   
   
5. Natural variability, including El Niño events and other recurring patterns of ocean-atmosphere interactions, have important, but limited influences on global and regional climate over timescales ranging from months to decades. (Very high confidence)
   
   
6. Longer-term climate records indicate that average temperatures in recent decades over much of the world have been higher than at any other time in the past 1700 years or more. ( High confidence)

​1.1 Introduction
Since the Third U.S. National Climate assessment (NCA3) was published in May 2014, new observations along with multiple lines of evidence have strengthened the conclusion that Earth’s climate is changing at a pace and in a pattern not explainable by natural influences.

​Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg chastised world leaders Monday, Sep. 23, for failing younger generations by not taking sufficient steps to stop climate change. "You have stolen my childhood and my dreams with your empty words," Thunberg said at the United Nations Climate Action Summit in New York. "You're failing us, but young people are starting to understand your betrayal. The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you choose to fail us, I say we will never forgive you," she added. Thunberg traveled to the U.S. by sailboat last month so she could appear at the summit. She and other youth activists led international climate strikes on Friday in an attempt to garner awareness ahead of the UN's meeting of political and business leaders.
PBS NewsHour Sep 23, 2019

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While we wait for the March 2019 housing data the IEA notes that CO2 emissions have more than doubled since the early seventies and increased by around 40% since 2000 and they rose by 1.7% in 2018. ​ ​

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Chris Hayes All In with AOC
The Green New Deal March 29, 2019
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​Top 10 Climate Change Myths - April 2018
Peter Hadfield (Youtube handle "potholer54")
a British freelance journalist author, geologist
​

The impact of exposure to air pollution
on cognitive performance

Over 92 per cent of the world’s population are continually breathing in unsafe air, which has led air pollution to be designated a public health crisis. 

Conclusions
This paper estimates the contemporaneous and cumulative impacts of air pollution on cognition by matching the scores of verbal and math tests given to people age 10 and above in a nationally representative survey with local air quality data according to the exact dates and locations of the interviews.

​We find that accumulative exposure to air pollution impedes verbal test scores. As people age, the negative effect becomes more pronounced, especially for men. The gender gap is particularly large for the less educated.

Our findings about the damaging effect of air pollution on cognition, particularly on the aging brain, imply that the indirect effect on social welfare could be much larger than previously thought. A narrow focus on the negative effect on health may underestimate the total cost of air pollution.

Full Report from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, September 2018

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While we wait for the August real estate numbers to come in, here is a bit of reflection on this year's fire storms that have affected so many of us.

B.C. wildfires: State of emergency extended until Sept. 12 CTV News

Humans responsible for more than 400 B.C. wildfires so far this season​ CTV News

RCMP say arson behind 29 Okanagan wildfires over last four years​ Vancouver Sun

Arson News Global News 

Canadian Wildland Fire Information System Natural Resources Canada

Canadian Criminal Sentencing/Offences/Arson Wikibooks​

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​If you are headed north to get away from the crazy real estate prices and the even crazier Tomahawk hurling sociopath in the White House, make sure you choose solid ground. Don't build on or near permafrost.

Permafrost, mostly found in high-latitude regions like the Arctic, stores large quantities of carbon dioxide and methane, which are released when it melts. sbs.com.au APR 11, 2017

"An increase in global warming by 2 degrees Celsius would thaw more than 40 per cent of the earth's permafrost, according to the study... An estimated 35 million people currently live in cities or towns on top of permafrost..." ​

​5 Year Study: Snow, Water, Ice
and Permafrost (SWIPA) April 25, 2017
​Thanks to Peter Sinclair

Jennifer Hynes Interview
with Dahr Jamail April 2017

Climate Watch Shorts: Melting Permafrost

Chasing Methane' with Mark Bittman

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Imagine $35 Oil for 5yrs A US-Style Canadian housing correction possibility is a potential that CMHC's CEO Evan Siddall discussed at a private audience presentation in New York, November 30, 2015 if oil remained at an average price of USD$35 per barrel for 5 years. The top chart are oil prices since the OAPEC (Arab members of OPEC plus Egypt & Syria) oil embargo. Note the 22 year period of sub-$35 oil prices not long ago.

Donald Sadoway "Science Serving Society"

Energy 2064 with Professor Donald R. Sadoway

The Bill Gates Backed Canadian Building a Better Battery