chpc.biz
  • Home
    • History Readings
  • Chart Book
    • 6 Canadian Metros
    • Vancouver Housing
    • Calgary Housing
    • Toronto Housing
    • Compare Toronto & Vancouver
    • Housing Price Momentum
    • Real Price of Housing
    • Sales Listings
    • MAR-MOI
    • TSX Indexes
    • Millionaire Metric
    • Real Price of Gold & RE
    • Canadian Housing in USD
    • Bitcoin Gold & RE
    • Housing Starts
  • Plunge-O-Meter
    • Real Interest Rates
    • Real 10yr Rate
    • Interest Rate Spread
    • Yield Curve
    • Yield Calculator
  • Earnings Employment
    • Household Debt
    • Affordability
    • Demographia
    • Census
  • For Sale CHPC
    • Contact
    • Data Sources
    • Featured Links
    • Terms of Service

Bugs

4/22/2020

 
global problems leading to insect loss
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
We are preoccupied with the novel coronavirus and its global wake of death.

​Today is Earth Day and our environmental problems have been overshadowed by our woeful unpreparedness to face this pandemic which we have been warned about for years.

"Here are 11 people who seemingly predicted the coronavirus pandemic." APR 2020 BusinessInsider.com

​
The chart to the left is from the new Biological Conservation paper which outlines four broad, global problems leading to insect loss. 
​In FEB 2019 Vox.com abbreviated the report: "When insects go extinct, other species follow. 
The researchers in the new Biological Conservation paper outline four broad, global problems leading to insect loss. They won’t surprise you. Habitat loss as a result of human development, deforestation, and the expansion of agriculture. Pollution, particularly via pesticides, fertilizers, and industrial wastes. Parasites and pathogens like the viruses that attack honeybees and invasive species. Climate change. In summary: Human activity is to blame." 

​
And if we don’t act, the researchers give a stark warning: "The repercussions this will have for the planet’s ecosystems are catastrophic to say the least, as insects are at the structural and functional base of many of the world’s ecosystems since their rise at the end of the Devonian period, almost 400 million years ago."

Earth Day 1970 - 2020: 50th Anniversary
American Museum of Natural History

Time Will Tell 
This year marks the 50th anniversary of Earth Day. In the ensuing years, our population has doubled. We eat more meat, fly more often, use more energy, and produce more stuff. Fortunately, our understanding has also changed. Decades of careful observation have given us a detailed picture of how Earth is responding to our habits. The past is clear. What will the future look like? It depends on the choices we make today. Watch our Climate Change Playlist (from the American Museum of Natural History) to understand what and how we're learning about anthropogenic climate change.

Global Temperature Change

1/31/2020

 
2019 Years of Global Temperature Change
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
While we wait for the January real estate data to come in next week, here is an update on the visualization of global temperature change over the last 2019 years.  
​"This reconstruction includes data from a wide variety of proxy records such as tree rings, cave deposits, corals, etc. The warming over the past 50 years is stark compared to the variations that have occurred naturally over the last 2000 years. It is not normal. The invention of the efficient steam engine in 1790 by James Watt kick-started the industrial revolution and our reliance on burning fossil fuels for energy." JAN 30, 2020 by Ed Hawkins (Climate Lab Book​)       
Climate scientist in the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) at the University of Reading. IPCC AR5 Contributing Author.  
Abstract from Nature Geoscience, July 2019
Multidecadal surface temperature changes may be forced by natural as well as anthropogenic factors, or arise unforced from the climate system. Distinguishing these factors is essential for estimating sensitivity to multiple climatic forcings and the amplitude of the unforced variability. Here we present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a global collection of temperature-sensitive palaeoclimate records. Our reconstructions display synchronous multidecadal temperature fluctuations that are coherent with one another and with fully forced millennial model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 across the Common Era. A substantial portion of pre-industrial (1300–1800 CE) variability at multidecadal timescales is attributed to volcanic aerosol forcing.

​Reconstructions and simulations qualitatively agree on the amplitude of the unforced global mean multidecadal temperature variability, thereby increasing confidence in future projections of climate change on these timescales. The largest warming trends at timescales of 20 years and longer occur during the second half of the twentieth century, highlighting the unusual character of the warming in recent decades.

Our Changing Climate: learning from the past to inform future choices
The Royal Society Kavli Lecture given by Professor Ed Hawkins. May 2019

Summer is just beginning...

12/29/2019

 
Australia On Fire
CLICK MAP TO ENLARGE

...IN AUSTRALIA

While we wait for the release of the December real estate data, let's acknowledge the Canadian firefighters serving in Australia. Dozens of Canadians have been there during the holidays helping out and more are on their way by month's end.
​"...this is the first time since 2009 that Canadian firefighters have been sent to Australia. Australian crews helped in B.C. during record-setting wildfire seasons in 2017 and 2018." CBC News Dec 27, 2019
The chart above is from an Australian Government Live Fire Watch map and if one tuns on the "lightning strike" graphics from the last 72 hours, the display almost obliterates the map details.

Tracking Climate Extremes Around The World In 2019
NBC News NOW - Dec 24, 2019

Very High Confidence

9/26/2019

 
Now that Trump is plummeting into a straight jacket of impeachment we can look for fallout that may affect Canadian Real Estate over the next year. Trade war, cyber war, military war and the ideological war of words and memes will no doubt affect the animal spirits of investors. 
​
Earth Rise 1968 Nasa
CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

​The bigger influence on Canadian real estate values will be the next decade of our reactions to the exponential growth in climate problems ("very high confidence") global migration pressures and the inevitable expansion towards technological solutions and a new generation of research and development; a new generation of critical thinking. 

​“A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” that is, "Science advances one funeral at a time" Max Planck 1949

From Wikileaks comes the 1217 page PDF 2017 U.S. Global Change Research Program 'Climate Science Special Report' (CSSR). Below is a screen shot of the key findings page:
​
Wikileaks CSSR 2017 Climate Change Report
CLICK DRAFT TO ENLARGE

Here follows, a text version of the screenshot of the key findings page of the 2017 U.S. Global Change Research Program 'Climate Science Special Report' (CSSR):
1. Our Globally Changing Climate
KEY FINDINGS


  1. The global climate continues to change rapidly compared to the pace of the natural changes in climate that have occurred throughout Earth’s history. Trends in globally-averaged temperature, sea-level rise, upper-ocean heat content, land based ice melt, and other climate variables provide consistent evidence of a warming planet. These observed trends are robust, and have been confirmed by independent research groups around the world. (Very high confidence)

  2. The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation and extreme heat events are increasing in most regions of the world. These trends are consistent with expected physical responses to a warming climate and with climate model studies, although models tend to underestimate the observed trends. The frequency and intensity of such extreme events will very likely continue to rise in the future. Trends for some other types of extreme events, such as floods, droughts, and severe storms, have more regional characteristics. (Very high confidence)

  3. Many lines of evidence demonstrate that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are primarily responsible for the observed climate changes in the industrial era. There are no alternative explanations, and no natural cycles are found in the observational record that can explain the observed changes in climate. (Very high confidence)

  4. Global climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades primarily on the amount of greenhouse (heat trapping) gases emitted globally and the sensitivity of Earth’s climate to those emissions. (Very high confidence)

  5. Natural variability, including El Niño events and other recurring patterns of ocean-atmosphere interactions, have important, but limited influences on global and regional climate over timescales ranging from months to decades. (Very high confidence)

  6. Longer-term climate records indicate that average temperatures in recent decades over much of the world have been higher than at any other time in the past 1700 years or more. ( High confidence)

​1.1 Introduction
Since the Third U.S. National Climate assessment (NCA3) was published in May 2014, new observations along with multiple lines of evidence have strengthened the conclusion that Earth’s climate is changing at a pace and in a pattern not explainable by natural influences.


​Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg chastised world leaders Monday, Sep. 23, for failing younger generations by not taking sufficient steps to stop climate change. "You have stolen my childhood and my dreams with your empty words," Thunberg said at the United Nations Climate Action Summit in New York. "You're failing us, but young people are starting to understand your betrayal. The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you choose to fail us, I say we will never forgive you," she added. Thunberg traveled to the U.S. by sailboat last month so she could appear at the summit. She and other youth activists led international climate strikes on Friday in an attempt to garner awareness ahead of the UN's meeting of political and business leaders.
PBS NewsHour Sep 23, 2019

Green New Deal

3/30/2019

 
U.S. Energy Production
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
While we wait for the March 2019 housing data the IEA notes that CO2 emissions have more than doubled since the early seventies and increased by around 40% since 2000 and they rose by 1.7% in 2018. ​
​
​​The above chart from the IEA shows that the United States is projected to provide 70% of the increase in global oil supply over next five years. And below are maps of Vancouver's supply of electric vehicle chargers compared to Amsterdam's. 
​
EV chargers Vancouver
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
The competing forces are energized and heating up in the forthcoming U.S. election cycle.

Chris Hayes All In with AOC
The Green New Deal March 29, 2019
​


​Top 10 Climate Change Myths - April 2018
Peter Hadfield (Youtube handle "potholer54")
a British freelance journalist author, geologist
​


The impact of exposure to air pollution
on cognitive performance

Over 92 per cent of the world’s population are continually breathing in unsafe air, which has led air pollution to be designated a public health crisis. 

Conclusions
This paper estimates the contemporaneous and cumulative impacts of air pollution on cognition by matching the scores of verbal and math tests given to people age 10 and above in a nationally representative survey with local air quality data according to the exact dates and locations of the interviews.

​We find that accumulative exposure to air pollution impedes verbal test scores. As people age, the negative effect becomes more pronounced, especially for men. The gender gap is particularly large for the less educated.

Our findings about the damaging effect of air pollution on cognition, particularly on the aging brain, imply that the indirect effect on social welfare could be much larger than previously thought. A narrow focus on the negative effect on health may underestimate the total cost of air pollution.


Full Report from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, September 2018

Idiots and Arsonists

8/30/2018

 
Fire Information for Resource Management System
CLICK FOR LIVE DATA FEED
While we wait for the August real estate numbers to come in, here is a bit of reflection on this year's fire storms that have affected so many of us.
It's one thing to become a real estate migrant and flee the flogging of overpriced housing; it's another when your community is consumed by fire.
​
B.C. wildfires: State of emergency extended until Sept. 12 CTV News

Humans responsible for more than 400 B.C. wildfires so far this season​ CTV News

RCMP say arson behind 29 Okanagan wildfires over last four years​ Vancouver Sun

Arson News Global News 

Canadian Wildland Fire Information System Natural Resources Canada

Canadian Criminal Sentencing/Offences/Arson Wikibooks
​

Perma What?

4/10/2017

 
Permafrost Map
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
​If you are headed north to get away from the crazy real estate prices and the even crazier Tomahawk hurling sociopath in the White House, make sure you choose solid ground. Don't build on or near permafrost.
Permafrost, mostly found in high-latitude regions like the Arctic, stores large quantities of carbon dioxide and methane, which are released when it melts. sbs.com.au APR 11, 2017

"An increase in global warming by 2 degrees Celsius would thaw more than 40 per cent of the earth's permafrost, according to the study... An estimated 35 million people currently live in cities or towns on top of permafrost..." ​

​5 Year Study: Snow, Water, Ice
and Permafrost (SWIPA) April 25, 2017
​Thanks to Peter Sinclair

Jennifer Hynes Interview
with Dahr Jamail April 2017

Climate Watch Shorts: Melting Permafrost

Chasing Methane' with Mark Bittman


Ok, now you can go back to your obsession with Canadian housing prices and where they go from here.

Sunny Day Flooding

9/4/2016

 
PictureCLICK IMAGE TO SEE THE ORIGINAL POST
Global warming and rising seas are increasing the amount of tidal flooding on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. 

​Flood levels are different from city to city, but the trends are similar. 
​

​​
See the complete New York Times September 3, 2016 Info Graphic in my Attention Snow Birds post.

$35 Oil Stress Test

12/2/2015

 
$35 Dollar Oil Stress Test
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
Imagine $35 Oil for 5yrs

A US-Style Canadian housing correction possibility is a potential that CMHC's CEO Evan Siddall discussed at a private audience presentation in New York, November 30, 2015 if oil remained at an average price of USD$35 per barrel for 5 years.

The top chart are oil prices since the OAPEC (Arab members of OPEC plus Egypt & Syria) oil embargo. Note the 22 year period of sub-$35 oil prices not long ago.
The bottom chart is Bloomberg's energy sector projections from their annual New Energy Finance Summit, April 14, 2015.
​
SCENARIO 1:
Oil averaging $35/bbl for 5 years
  • 26% drop in Canadian home prices
  • 12.5% peak unemployment

SCENARIO 2:
Global deflation and a US-style Housing Correction 
  • 30-44% drop in Canadian home prices 
  • 12-16% peak unemployment

"Canada’s home price growth since the 2008 recession has outpaced that of the U.S., Australia, and the U.K. It also reiterated risks to housing include high debt-to-income and concentration of net worth in housing." Financial Post November 30, 2015 (My Household Debt and Earnings charts are updated monthly - BR)
​

Donald Sadoway "Science Serving Society"

Energy 2064 with Professor Donald R. Sadoway

The Bill Gates Backed Canadian Building a Better Battery

"How do you store the energy generated by turbines when the wind isn’t blowing, the power from solar panels when the sun isn’t shining?” Read the Globe & Mail June 2015 report.

Diminishing Returns

11/12/2014

 
U.S. Oil ImportsCLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
"The best tar-sands companies need to get $50 per barrel for their oil to break even. The rest need between $50 and $90 per barrel. Today, a barrel of bitumen sells for just $56." 
November 10, 2014 Quote from Matt Badiali, editor of S&A Resource Report 

"Investors in Canadian oil sands are at a heightened risk of companies wasting $271 billion of capital on projects in the next decade that need high oil prices of more than $95 a barrel to give a decent return.", the Carbon Tracker Initiative (CTI) revealed today." 
November 4, 2014 Quote from Carbon Tracker Initiative

THE TRUE COST OF OIL
Garth Lenz, November 2011 TEDx Victoria BC
Lest we forget—lest we forget!
Rudyard Kipling 1897
<<Previous
    Follow @Brian_Ripley

    RSS Feed


    Picture


    History, Charts & Curated Readings

    "History, real solemn history, I cannot be interested in.... I read it a little as a duty; but it tells me nothing that does not either vex or weary me. The quarrels of popes and kings, with wars and pestilences in every page; the men all so good for nothing, and hardly any women at all - it is very tiresome." Jane Austen spoken by Catherine Morland in 'Northanger Abbey'


    Archives

    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012
    January 2012

    Categories

    All
    AI
    Airbnb
    Apt
    Austerity
    Australia
    Balance Of Trade
    BNN
    BTC
    Bubbles
    Budget
    Bulls
    Busts
    Calgary
    Canada
    Capital Flight
    Case Shiller
    Case Study
    Charlie Rose
    China
    Chris Kimble
    Climate
    Cmhc
    Commodities
    CPI
    Credit
    Cullen Roche
    Currency
    Debt
    Deflation
    Demographics
    Dubai
    Employment
    Energy
    Environment
    Europe
    Exports
    Fair Value
    Flippers
    Future
    FX
    GDP
    Gold
    Greenspan
    Hong Kong
    Hyperinflation
    Id
    Imports
    Inflation
    Interest Rates
    Japan
    Labour
    Martin Armstrong
    MM
    Money Laundering
    Money Velocity
    Montreal
    Mortgage
    Net Worth
    New York
    OECD
    Oil
    Olympic Village
    Pandemic
    Pmi
    Poverty
    Productivity
    Recession
    REIT
    Rent Or Buy
    Russia
    Savers
    Savings
    Solar Cycle
    Stock Market
    Super Rich
    Tax
    Technology
    Tesla
    Toronto
    Trade
    Trump
    TV
    U.K.
    Unemployment
    U.S.
    Vancouver
    Victoria
    Wages
    War
    Weather
    Whale Watching
    WTO
    Yield

    "Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement; and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana Vol. I, Reason in Common Sense​​
Home | Chart Book | Earnings | Plunge-O-Meter | History & Readings | Contact

BRIAN RIPLEY'S CANADIAN HOUSING PRICE CHARTS & Blog for
#Vancouver #Calgary #Edmonton #Toronto #Ottawa #Montreal
Real Estate Prices, Sales & Inventory with Plunge-O-Nomic Post Peak Price Action featuring the PLUNGE-O-METER
Data reporting changes by Real Estate Boards and other data collection notes are listed on the DATA SOURCES page.

If you want to be notified when I update this site, go to: twitter.com/Brian_Ripley and click "Follow".

GET A FREE TRIAL DISCOUNT TO CHRIS KIMBLE'S FINANCIAL MARKETS CHARTING SOLUTIONS
ADVERTISE YOUR REAL ESTATE FOR SALE TO THIS INFORMED AUDIENCE
Thousands of Unique Visitors and Page Views Every Month TRAFFIC CHART

Picture
Picture
Picture

Weebly - Websites, eCommerce & Marketing in one place.
Compare Weebly Plans
​This website & blog was built with Weebly; a very easy to use drag and drop cloud based app. TRY IT FOR FREE​
CHPC.biz (this site) is a SAFE BROWSING SITE according to Google's Safe Browsing Diagnostic

  • Home
    • History Readings
  • Chart Book
    • 6 Canadian Metros
    • Vancouver Housing
    • Calgary Housing
    • Toronto Housing
    • Compare Toronto & Vancouver
    • Housing Price Momentum
    • Real Price of Housing
    • Sales Listings
    • MAR-MOI
    • TSX Indexes
    • Millionaire Metric
    • Real Price of Gold & RE
    • Canadian Housing in USD
    • Bitcoin Gold & RE
    • Housing Starts
  • Plunge-O-Meter
    • Real Interest Rates
    • Real 10yr Rate
    • Interest Rate Spread
    • Yield Curve
    • Yield Calculator
  • Earnings Employment
    • Household Debt
    • Affordability
    • Demographia
    • Census
  • For Sale CHPC
    • Contact
    • Data Sources
    • Featured Links
    • Terms of Service