Abstract from Nature Geoscience, July 2019
Our Changing Climate: learning from the past to inform future choices
While we wait for the release of the December real estate data, let's acknowledge the Canadian firefighters serving in Australia. Dozens of Canadians have been there during the holidays helping out and more are on their way by month's end.
Tracking Climate Extremes Around The World In 2019
NBC News NOW - Dec 24, 2019
The bigger influence on Canadian real estate values will be the next decade of our reactions to the exponential growth in climate problems ("very high confidence") global migration pressures and the inevitable expansion towards technological solutions and a new generation of research and development; a new generation of critical thinking.
“A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” that is, "Science advances one funeral at a time" Max Planck 1949
Here follows, a text version of the screenshot of the key findings page of the 2017 U.S. Global Change Research Program 'Climate Science Special Report' (CSSR):
1. Our Globally Changing Climate
- The global climate continues to change rapidly compared to the pace of the natural changes in climate that have occurred throughout Earth’s history. Trends in globally-averaged temperature, sea-level rise, upper-ocean heat content, land based ice melt, and other climate variables provide consistent evidence of a warming planet. These observed trends are robust, and have been confirmed by independent research groups around the world. (Very high confidence)
- The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation and extreme heat events are increasing in most regions of the world. These trends are consistent with expected physical responses to a warming climate and with climate model studies, although models tend to underestimate the observed trends. The frequency and intensity of such extreme events will very likely continue to rise in the future. Trends for some other types of extreme events, such as floods, droughts, and severe storms, have more regional characteristics. (Very high confidence)
- Many lines of evidence demonstrate that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are primarily responsible for the observed climate changes in the industrial era. There are no alternative explanations, and no natural cycles are found in the observational record that can explain the observed changes in climate. (Very high confidence)
- Global climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades primarily on the amount of greenhouse (heat trapping) gases emitted globally and the sensitivity of Earth’s climate to those emissions. (Very high confidence)
- Natural variability, including El Niño events and other recurring patterns of ocean-atmosphere interactions, have important, but limited influences on global and regional climate over timescales ranging from months to decades. (Very high confidence)
- Longer-term climate records indicate that average temperatures in recent decades over much of the world have been higher than at any other time in the past 1700 years or more. ( High confidence)
Since the Third U.S. National Climate assessment (NCA3) was published in May 2014, new observations along with multiple lines of evidence have strengthened the conclusion that Earth’s climate is changing at a pace and in a pattern not explainable by natural influences.
Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg chastised world leaders Monday, Sep. 23, for failing younger generations by not taking sufficient steps to stop climate change. "You have stolen my childhood and my dreams with your empty words," Thunberg said at the United Nations Climate Action Summit in New York. "You're failing us, but young people are starting to understand your betrayal. The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you choose to fail us, I say we will never forgive you," she added. Thunberg traveled to the U.S. by sailboat last month so she could appear at the summit. She and other youth activists led international climate strikes on Friday in an attempt to garner awareness ahead of the UN's meeting of political and business leaders.
PBS NewsHour Sep 23, 2019
While we wait for the March 2019 housing data the IEA notes that CO2 emissions have more than doubled since the early seventies and increased by around 40% since 2000 and they rose by 1.7% in 2018.
Chris Hayes All In with AOC
The Green New Deal March 29, 2019
Top 10 Climate Change Myths - April 2018
Peter Hadfield (Youtube handle "potholer54")
a British freelance journalist author, geologist
The impact of exposure to air pollution
on cognitive performance
Over 92 per cent of the world’s population are continually breathing in unsafe air, which has led air pollution to be designated a public health crisis.
This paper estimates the contemporaneous and cumulative impacts of air pollution on cognition by matching the scores of verbal and math tests given to people age 10 and above in a nationally representative survey with local air quality data according to the exact dates and locations of the interviews.
We find that accumulative exposure to air pollution impedes verbal test scores. As people age, the negative effect becomes more pronounced, especially for men. The gender gap is particularly large for the less educated.
Our findings about the damaging effect of air pollution on cognition, particularly on the aging brain, imply that the indirect effect on social welfare could be much larger than previously thought. A narrow focus on the negative effect on health may underestimate the total cost of air pollution.
Full Report from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, September 2018
B.C. wildfires: State of emergency extended until Sept. 12 CTV News
Humans responsible for more than 400 B.C. wildfires so far this season CTV News
RCMP say arson behind 29 Okanagan wildfires over last four years Vancouver Sun
Arson News Global News
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System Natural Resources Canada
Canadian Criminal Sentencing/Offences/Arson Wikibooks
Permafrost, mostly found in high-latitude regions like the Arctic, stores large quantities of carbon dioxide and methane, which are released when it melts. sbs.com.au APR 11, 2017
"An increase in global warming by 2 degrees Celsius would thaw more than 40 per cent of the earth's permafrost, according to the study... An estimated 35 million people currently live in cities or towns on top of permafrost..."
5 Year Study: Snow, Water, Ice
and Permafrost (SWIPA) April 25, 2017
Thanks to Peter Sinclair
Jennifer Hynes Interview
with Dahr Jamail April 2017
Climate Watch Shorts: Melting Permafrost
Chasing Methane' with Mark Bittman
Ok, now you can go back to your obsession with Canadian housing prices and where they go from here.
Flood levels are different from city to city, but the trends are similar.
See the complete New York Times September 3, 2016 Info Graphic in my Attention Snow Birds post.
Imagine $35 Oil for 5yrs
A US-Style Canadian housing correction possibility is a potential that CMHC's CEO Evan Siddall discussed at a private audience presentation in New York, November 30, 2015 if oil remained at an average price of USD$35 per barrel for 5 years.
The top chart are oil prices since the OAPEC (Arab members of OPEC plus Egypt & Syria) oil embargo. Note the 22 year period of sub-$35 oil prices not long ago.
Oil averaging $35/bbl for 5 years
- 26% drop in Canadian home prices
- 12.5% peak unemployment
Global deflation and a US-style Housing Correction
- 30-44% drop in Canadian home prices
- 12-16% peak unemployment
"Canada’s home price growth since the 2008 recession has outpaced that of the U.S., Australia, and the U.K. It also reiterated risks to housing include high debt-to-income and concentration of net worth in housing." Financial Post November 30, 2015 (My Household Debt and Earnings charts are updated monthly - BR)
Donald Sadoway "Science Serving Society"
Energy 2064 with Professor Donald R. Sadoway
The Bill Gates Backed Canadian Building a Better Battery
November 10, 2014 Quote from Matt Badiali, editor of S&A Resource Report
November 4, 2014 Quote from Carbon Tracker Initiative
Garth Lenz, November 2011 TEDx Victoria BC
Rudyard Kipling 1897
Anyone with a Twitter feed knows that this year a lot of correlations are being made with the weather. The bottom panel of the mashup shows the latest housing start data in the midwestern U.S. The chart came via Joe Weisenthal at the Business Insider with the question "Think the weather isn't having a major effect on the economy?"
Well yes the weather does "effect ... the economy"; snow tires are doing a booming trade but the chart is housing starts in the midwest and I noticed by looking at a 24 year chart (top panel inset) of U.S. mortgage applications that since the Pit of Gloom in 2009, mortgage demand has dropped even more across the U.S. into a 5 year well defined narrow range similar to but more extended than the mid 1990's.
Yes it's cold out there but as I have highlighted on the lower panel midwest chart, the winter of 2012 saw a spike in starts as dramatic as the current slump and according to a USA Today news item in December 2012 "...parts of 17 states are (were) under winter weather advisories as far west as Washington state and as far east as Maine." At the time of the news, 7 people had already died from weather related events, thousands of flights had been cancelled and tens of thousands were without power. Housing starts peaked that winter.
Multi-unit buildings count each unit as a start and if current weather delays the footings being poured then potential multiple units don't make the "start" count. For the last 5 years, midwest starts have been trending up to a peak in 2012 regardless of weather and this year starts have plunged. It could be a drop in demand for the midwest as a correlation with the rest of the U.S.
In real estate, location and employment opportunities can trump weather.
History, Charts & Curated Readings
"Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement; and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana Vol. I, Reason in Common Sense
Balance Of Trade
Rent Or Buy