Now that Trump is plummeting into a straight jacket of impeachment we can look for fallout that may affect Canadian Real Estate over the next year. Trade war, cyber war, military war and the ideological war of words and memes will no doubt affect the animal spirits of investors.
From Wikileaks comes the 1217 page PDF 2017 U.S. Global Change Research Program 'Climate Science Special Report' (CSSR). Below is a screen shot of the key findings page:
Here follows, a text version of the screenshot of the key findings page of the 2017 U.S. Global Change Research Program 'Climate Science Special Report' (CSSR):
1. Our Globally Changing Climate
Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg chastised world leaders Monday, Sep. 23, for failing younger generations by not taking sufficient steps to stop climate change. "You have stolen my childhood and my dreams with your empty words," Thunberg said at the United Nations Climate Action Summit in New York. "You're failing us, but young people are starting to understand your betrayal. The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you choose to fail us, I say we will never forgive you," she added. Thunberg traveled to the U.S. by sailboat last month so she could appear at the summit. She and other youth activists led international climate strikes on Friday in an attempt to garner awareness ahead of the UN's meeting of political and business leaders.
The above chart from the IEA shows that the United States is projected to provide 70% of the increase in global oil supply over next five years. And below are maps of Vancouver's supply of electric vehicle chargers compared to Amsterdam's.
The competing forces are energized and heating up in the forthcoming U.S. election cycle.
Chris Hayes All In with AOC
Imagine $35 Oil for 5yrs
A US-Style Canadian housing correction possibility is a potential that CMHC's CEO Evan Siddall discussed at a private audience presentation in New York, November 30, 2015 if oil remained at an average price of USD$35 per barrel for 5 years.
The top chart are oil prices since the OAPEC (Arab members of OPEC plus Egypt & Syria) oil embargo. Note the 22 year period of sub-$35 oil prices not long ago.
Oil averaging $35/bbl for 5 years
- 26% drop in Canadian home prices
- 12.5% peak unemployment
Global deflation and a US-style Housing Correction
- 30-44% drop in Canadian home prices
- 12-16% peak unemployment
"Canada’s home price growth since the 2008 recession has outpaced that of the U.S., Australia, and the U.K. It also reiterated risks to housing include high debt-to-income and concentration of net worth in housing." Financial Post November 30, 2015 (My Household Debt and Earnings charts are updated monthly - BR)
Donald Sadoway "Science Serving Society"
Energy 2064 with Professor Donald R. Sadoway
The Bill Gates Backed Canadian Building a Better Battery
November 10, 2014 Quote from Matt Badiali, editor of S&A Resource Report
November 4, 2014 Quote from Carbon Tracker Initiative
Garth Lenz, November 2011 TEDx Victoria BC
Rudyard Kipling 1897
Anyone with a Twitter feed knows that this year a lot of correlations are being made with the weather. The bottom panel of the mashup shows the latest housing start data in the midwestern U.S. The chart came via Joe Weisenthal at the Business Insider with the question "Think the weather isn't having a major effect on the economy?"
Well yes the weather does "effect ... the economy"; snow tires are doing a booming trade but the chart is housing starts in the midwest and I noticed by looking at a 24 year chart (top panel inset) of U.S. mortgage applications that since the Pit of Gloom in 2009, mortgage demand has dropped even more across the U.S. into a 5 year well defined narrow range similar to but more extended than the mid 1990's.
Yes it's cold out there but as I have highlighted on the lower panel midwest chart, the winter of 2012 saw a spike in starts as dramatic as the current slump and according to a USA Today news item in December 2012 "...parts of 17 states are (were) under winter weather advisories as far west as Washington state and as far east as Maine." At the time of the news, 7 people had already died from weather related events, thousands of flights had been cancelled and tens of thousands were without power. Housing starts peaked that winter.
Multi-unit buildings count each unit as a start and if current weather delays the footings being poured then potential multiple units don't make the "start" count. For the last 5 years, midwest starts have been trending up to a peak in 2012 regardless of weather and this year starts have plunged. It could be a drop in demand for the midwest as a correlation with the rest of the U.S.
In real estate, location and employment opportunities can trump weather.
Vancouver at High Tide
This map of Vancouver is from Robert A. Rohde's Global Warming Art and it shows regions that are most vulnerable to sea level rise. Leaky condos result from bad construction; flooding basements from bad site selection.
Snippets from Global Warming Art:
- During the twentieth century, sea level rose 20 cm.
- Many model predictions still foresee a sea level rise of less than 1 additional meter by 2100.
- The likely scenarios for twenty-first century sea level rise due to unrestrained global warming remain less than 2 m.
- Regardless of the time scale involved, an analogy to the previous interglacial suggests that a few degrees Celsius of sustained warming can cause enough melting to raise sea level 4-6 m before the ice sheets reach equilibrium. This level of warming is likely to be achieved or even exceeded by 2100 in the absence of intervention to combat climate change, though as above, it would take far longer to realize the full sea level change.
- Since coastal regions tend to flat and the ocean's surface provides a calibration target for the radar system, one can usually expect that near shore elevations will be somewhat more accurate than the average.
- These maps don't include any information regarding tides, storm surges, or other coastal effects, they provide only a partial picture of how vulnerable a given terrain may be to sea level rise.
- One should view these maps as rough estimations of how sea level rise may affect coastal areas and not rely on them too heavily.
- The ultimate amount of flooding is highly uncertain.
Sell Your Florida Real Estate BEFORE 100,002,013 AD
"Earth 100 Million Years From Now" Youtube by SpaceRip
Earth's landmasses were not always what they are today. Continents formed as Earth's crustal plates shifted and collided over long periods of time. This video shows how today's continents are thought to have evolved over the last 600 million years, and where they'll end up in the next 100 million years. Paleogeographic Views of Earth's History provided by Ron Blakey, Professor of Geology, Northern Arizona University.
Miami is on its way to becoming an American Atlantis.
The following snippets are taken from the July 4th, 2013 issue of Rolling Stone article by Jeff Goodell
Miami is on its way to becoming an American Atlantis. It may be another century before the city is completely underwater (though some more-pessimistic scientists predict it could be much sooner), but life in the vibrant metropolis of 5.5 million people will begin to dissolve much quicker, most likely within a few decades.
"Miami, as we know it today, is doomed," says Harold Wanless, the chairman of the department of geological sciences at the University of Miami. "It's not a question of if. It's a question of when."
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development lists Miami as the number-one most vulnerable city worldwide in terms of property damage, with more than $416 billion in assets at risk to storm-related flooding and sea-level rise.
South Florida sits above a vast and porous limestone plateau. "Imagine Swiss cheese, and you'll have a pretty good idea what the rock under southern Florida looks like," says Glenn Landers, a senior engineer at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
The 5.5 million or so people who now live in South Florida consume more than 3 billion gallons of water every day (including industry and agriculture). Almost all of that is pumped out of the aquifer, drawing it down and allowing more and more salt water to move in.
Since taking office in 2011, Governor Rick Scott, a Tea Party Republican has targeted environmental protections of every sort and slashed the budget of the South Florida Water Management District, the agency in charge of managing water supply in the region, as well as restoration of the Everglades.
"If you live in South Florida and you're not building a boat, you're not facing reality."
Whenever there is a full moon and a high tide, the sea water comes up on the west side of Miami Beach through the old storm drains and flows into the streets. In some places, it bubbles up between the street and the sidewalk.
"God destroyed the Earth with water the first time, and he promised he wouldn't do it again. So all of you who are pushing fears about sea-level rise, go back and read the Bible." Florida State Commissioner
Read the whole article here.
The Perfect Tide: Sea Level
and the Future of South Florida
Snippets from the New York Times Info Graphic:
"A Sharp Increase In ‘Sunny Day’ Flooding" on the east coast of the USA.
Global warming and rising seas are increasing the amount of tidal flooding on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Flood levels are different from city to city, but the trends are similar.
The city has not been hit by tidal flooding as hard as cities farther south, but it is working on a plan to combat flooding and sea-level rise.
The Battery, New York City
In 2012, Hurricane Sandy laid bare the city’s vulnerability to storm surges and tidal flooding. The city is spending some $20 billion on a resilience plan.
The Jersey Shore was badly damaged by Hurricane Sandy, and fierce fights have erupted about how to rebuild.
High tides now regularly flood the old City Dock, the heart of downtown. A statue commemorating the historic television series “Roots” is sometimes under water.
Rulers at low-lying intersections help drivers figure out if floodwaters are safe to plow through. Some cars go too fast, creating wakes that damage nearby property.
The city and points nearby have been among the worst-hit parts of the country by the increase in tidal nuisance flooding.
At high tide, water can back up in the old sewers and bubble into the streets. The city is spending more than $200 million on improvements.
Fort Pulaski, Ga.
The road to nearby Tybee Island is being closed several times a year during tidal flooding, and can be scary to drive on even when it remains open.
Miami Beach plans to spend at least $400 million to raise streets, install pumps and elevate seawalls.
Key West, Fla.
Researchers are studying ancient coral reefs here to determine how fast sea levels rose between the last two ice ages, about 125,000 years ago.
See the original and complete New York Times Info Graphic.
History, Charts & Curated Readings
"Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement; and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana Vol. I, Reason in Common Sense
Balance Of Trade
Rent Or Buy