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​The bigger influence on Canadian real estate values will be the next decade of our reactions to the exponential growth in climate problems ("very high confidence") global migration pressures and the inevitable expansion towards technological solutions and a new generation of research and development; a new generation of critical thinking.  ​“A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” that is, "Science advances one funeral at a time" Max Planck 1949

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1. Our Globally Changing Climate
KEY FINDINGS

1. The global climate continues to change rapidly compared to the pace of the natural changes in climate that have occurred throughout Earth’s history. Trends in globally-averaged temperature, sea-level rise, upper-ocean heat content, land based ice melt, and other climate variables provide consistent evidence of a warming planet. These observed trends are robust, and have been confirmed by independent research groups around the world. (Very high confidence)
   
   
2. The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation and extreme heat events are increasing in most regions of the world. These trends are consistent with expected physical responses to a warming climate and with climate model studies, although models tend to underestimate the observed trends. The frequency and intensity of such extreme events will very likely continue to rise in the future. Trends for some other types of extreme events, such as floods, droughts, and severe storms, have more regional characteristics. (Very high confidence)
   
   
3. Many lines of evidence demonstrate that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are primarily responsible for the observed climate changes in the industrial era. There are no alternative explanations, and no natural cycles are found in the observational record that can explain the observed changes in climate. (Very high confidence)
   
   
4. Global climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades primarily on the amount of greenhouse (heat trapping) gases emitted globally and the sensitivity of Earth’s climate to those emissions. (Very high confidence)
   
   
5. Natural variability, including El Niño events and other recurring patterns of ocean-atmosphere interactions, have important, but limited influences on global and regional climate over timescales ranging from months to decades. (Very high confidence)
   
   
6. Longer-term climate records indicate that average temperatures in recent decades over much of the world have been higher than at any other time in the past 1700 years or more. ( High confidence)

​1.1 Introduction
Since the Third U.S. National Climate assessment (NCA3) was published in May 2014, new observations along with multiple lines of evidence have strengthened the conclusion that Earth’s climate is changing at a pace and in a pattern not explainable by natural influences.

​Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg chastised world leaders Monday, Sep. 23, for failing younger generations by not taking sufficient steps to stop climate change. "You have stolen my childhood and my dreams with your empty words," Thunberg said at the United Nations Climate Action Summit in New York. "You're failing us, but young people are starting to understand your betrayal. The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you choose to fail us, I say we will never forgive you," she added. Thunberg traveled to the U.S. by sailboat last month so she could appear at the summit. She and other youth activists led international climate strikes on Friday in an attempt to garner awareness ahead of the UN's meeting of political and business leaders.
PBS NewsHour Sep 23, 2019

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While we wait for the March 2019 housing data the IEA notes that CO2 emissions have more than doubled since the early seventies and increased by around 40% since 2000 and they rose by 1.7% in 2018. ​ ​

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Chris Hayes All In with AOC
The Green New Deal March 29, 2019
​

​Top 10 Climate Change Myths - April 2018
Peter Hadfield (Youtube handle "potholer54")
a British freelance journalist author, geologist
​

The impact of exposure to air pollution
on cognitive performance

Over 92 per cent of the world’s population are continually breathing in unsafe air, which has led air pollution to be designated a public health crisis. 

Conclusions
This paper estimates the contemporaneous and cumulative impacts of air pollution on cognition by matching the scores of verbal and math tests given to people age 10 and above in a nationally representative survey with local air quality data according to the exact dates and locations of the interviews.

​We find that accumulative exposure to air pollution impedes verbal test scores. As people age, the negative effect becomes more pronounced, especially for men. The gender gap is particularly large for the less educated.

Our findings about the damaging effect of air pollution on cognition, particularly on the aging brain, imply that the indirect effect on social welfare could be much larger than previously thought. A narrow focus on the negative effect on health may underestimate the total cost of air pollution.

Full Report from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, September 2018

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While we wait for the August real estate numbers to come in, here is a bit of reflection on this year's fire storms that have affected so many of us.

B.C. wildfires: State of emergency extended until Sept. 12 CTV News

Humans responsible for more than 400 B.C. wildfires so far this season​ CTV News

RCMP say arson behind 29 Okanagan wildfires over last four years​ Vancouver Sun

Arson News Global News 

Canadian Wildland Fire Information System Natural Resources Canada

Canadian Criminal Sentencing/Offences/Arson Wikibooks​

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​If you are headed north to get away from the crazy real estate prices and the even crazier Tomahawk hurling sociopath in the White House, make sure you choose solid ground. Don't build on or near permafrost.

Permafrost, mostly found in high-latitude regions like the Arctic, stores large quantities of carbon dioxide and methane, which are released when it melts. sbs.com.au APR 11, 2017

"An increase in global warming by 2 degrees Celsius would thaw more than 40 per cent of the earth's permafrost, according to the study... An estimated 35 million people currently live in cities or towns on top of permafrost..." ​

​5 Year Study: Snow, Water, Ice
and Permafrost (SWIPA) April 25, 2017
​Thanks to Peter Sinclair

Jennifer Hynes Interview
with Dahr Jamail April 2017

Climate Watch Shorts: Melting Permafrost

Chasing Methane' with Mark Bittman

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Imagine $35 Oil for 5yrs A US-Style Canadian housing correction possibility is a potential that CMHC's CEO Evan Siddall discussed at a private audience presentation in New York, November 30, 2015 if oil remained at an average price of USD$35 per barrel for 5 years. The top chart are oil prices since the OAPEC (Arab members of OPEC plus Egypt & Syria) oil embargo. Note the 22 year period of sub-$35 oil prices not long ago.

Donald Sadoway "Science Serving Society"

Energy 2064 with Professor Donald R. Sadoway

The Bill Gates Backed Canadian Building a Better Battery

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​Vancouver at High Tide This map of Vancouver is from Robert A. Rohde's Global Warming Art and it shows regions that are most vulnerable to sea level rise. Leaky condos result from bad construction; flooding basements from bad site selection.  Snippets from Global Warming Art: ​

• During the twentieth century, sea level rose 20 cm.
• Many model predictions still foresee a sea level rise of less than 1 additional meter by 2100.
• The likely scenarios for twenty-first century sea level rise due to unrestrained global warming remain less than 2 m.
• Regardless of the time scale involved, an analogy to the previous interglacial suggests that a few degrees Celsius of sustained warming can cause enough melting to raise sea level 4-6 m before the ice sheets reach equilibrium. This level of warming is likely to be achieved or even exceeded by 2100 in the absence of intervention to combat climate change, though as above, it would take far longer to realize the full sea level change.
• Since coastal regions tend to flat and the ocean's surface provides a calibration target for the radar system, one can usually expect that near shore elevations will be somewhat more accurate than the average.
• These maps don't include any information regarding tides, storm surges, or other coastal effects, they provide only a partial picture of how vulnerable a given terrain may be to sea level rise.
• One should view these maps as rough estimations of how sea level rise may affect coastal areas and not rely on them too heavily.
• The ultimate amount of flooding is highly uncertain.

Sell Your Florida Real Estate BEFORE 100,002,013 AD 

"Earth 100 Million Years From Now" Youtube by SpaceRip

Earth's landmasses were not always what they are today. Continents formed as Earth's crustal plates shifted and collided over long periods of time. This video shows how today's continents are thought to have evolved over the last 600 million years, and where they'll end up in the next 100 million years. Paleogeographic Views of Earth's History provided by Ron Blakey, Professor of Geology, Northern Arizona University.

Image Credit MorgueFile.com

Goodbye, Miami

Miami is on its way to becoming an American Atlantis. It may be another century before the city is completely underwater (though some more-pessimistic­ scientists predict it could be much sooner), but life in the vibrant metropolis of 5.5 million people will begin to dissolve much quicker, most likely within a few decades. 

"Miami, as we know it today, is doomed," says Harold Wanless, the chairman of the department of geological sciences at the University of Miami. "It's not a question of if. It's a question of when."

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development lists Miami as the number-one most vulnerable city worldwide in terms of property damage, with more than $416 billion in assets at risk to storm-related flooding and sea-level rise.

South Florida sits above a vast and porous limestone plateau. "Imagine Swiss cheese, and you'll have a pretty good idea what the rock under southern Florida looks like," says Glenn Landers, a senior engineer at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

The 5.5 million or so people who now live in South Florida consume more than 3 billion gallons of water every day (including industry and agriculture). Almost all of that is pumped out of the aquifer, drawing it down and allowing more and more salt water to move in. 

Since taking office in 2011, Governor Rick Scott, a Tea Party Republican has targeted environmental protections of every sort and slashed the budget of the South Florida Water Management District, the agency in charge of managing water supply in the region, as well as restoration of the Everglades.

"If you live in South Florida and you're not building a boat, you're not facing reality."

Whenever there is a full moon and a high tide, the sea water comes up on the west side of Miami Beach through the old storm drains and flows into the streets. In some places, it bubbles up between the street and the sidewalk.

"God destroyed the Earth with water the first time, and he promised he wouldn't do it again. So all of you who are pushing fears about sea-level rise, go back and read the Bible." Florida State Commissioner

Read the whole article here.

​The Perfect Tide: Sea Level
and the Future of South Florida

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Global warming and rising seas are increasing the amount of tidal flooding on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Flood levels are different from city to city, but the trends are similar.

Boston
The city has not been hit by tidal flooding as hard as cities farther south, but it is working on a plan to combat flooding and sea-level rise.

The Battery, New York City
In 2012, Hurricane Sandy laid bare the city’s vulnerability to storm surges and tidal flooding. The city is spending some $20 billion on a resilience plan.

Atlantic City
The Jersey Shore was badly damaged by Hurricane Sandy, and fierce fights have erupted about how to rebuild.

Annapolis, Md.
High tides now regularly flood the old City Dock, the heart of downtown. A statue commemorating the historic television series “Roots” is sometimes under water.

Norfolk, Va.
Rulers at low-lying intersections help drivers figure out if floodwaters are safe to plow through. Some cars go too fast, creating wakes that damage nearby property.

Wilmington, N.C.
The city and points nearby have been among the worst-hit parts of the country by the increase in tidal nuisance flooding.

Charleston, S.C.
At high tide, water can back up in the old sewers and bubble into the streets. The city is spending more than $200 million on improvements.

Fort Pulaski, Ga.
The road to nearby Tybee Island is being closed several times a year during tidal flooding, and can be scary to drive on even when it remains open.

Miami
Miami Beach plans to spend at least $400 million to raise streets, install pumps and elevate seawalls.

Key West, Fla.
Researchers are studying ancient coral reefs here to determine how fast sea levels rose between the last two ice ages, about 125,000 years ago.

See the original and complete New York Times Info Graphic.