HISTORY & READINGS at Brian Ripley's Canadian Housing Price Charts & Plunge-O-Meter

Peak Consumption in Canada
appears to be at hand.

Feeble savings may also signal that
consumption-led growth has nearly reached it’s end, as
Canadians are spending by drawing down savings.
From Bloomberg via TheStar.com December 1, 2018
Hat Tip to TradingEconomics.com for the Charts

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The low rate leaves Canadians more vulnerable to an economic shock, according to Brian DePratto at Toronto-Dominion Bank. “It’s concerning that households aren’t building up buffers and prepping for retirement like they used to,” the Toronto-based senior economist said by email. “The extent to which Canadians turn around their priorities when it comes to their financial situation could also mean less money for consumer spending.”

“It doesn’t bode well for consumption spending moving forward,” National Bank Financial’s Krishen Rangasamy

As we wait for the December real estate data, let's look at some year end charts.

First up is Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg who is suggesting that the price of oil is headed down to less than USD$23.

Notice where oil was trading in 2001-2002 and 2016.

As the U.S. Energy Information Admin EIA.gov noted in their December 12, 2018 report:

"...concerns about the pace of global economic growth in coming months have led to related concerns about the pace of oil demand growth."

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The economic slowdown in China is on, being driven by "risky lending and a rapid rise in debt levels". That sounds familiar to me and I have plotted it out on my Canadian Household Debt, GDP, Balance of Trade and FDI chart.

After decades of sharp expansion, the Chinese economy is slowing down. Growth in 2018 is set to be the weakest since 1990. And 2019 looks even worse. The world's second largest economy is feeling the effects of a darkening trade outlook and government attempts to rein in risky lending after a rapid rise in debt levels. "The drivers of China's slowdown have yet to have their full impact on the economy, and the combination of both is unprecedented," analysts at Moody's wrote in a research note this month. "This creates a high degree of uncertainty and risk. CNN Business December 30. 2018

The Canadian Dollar continues to plunge. That means our import costs go up and our net trade has been negative 8 out of the last 11 prints; ie: we Canadians buy more than we sell which is ok if we have the income to service the debt, but as the Chinese economy slows and they buy less of our resources, our incomes as well as other countries incomes are going to diminish.

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The USD which is the "senior currency" continues to go up in value when measured against other currencies. That is having a profound effect on global foreign debt holders that have to raise US dollars to repay their loans with their "depreciating" local currencies.

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As Rick Ackerman reminded his clients on December 30, 2018:

A further, significant strengthening in the dollar will tell us when the Deflationary endgame for the global economy is gathering force. It will crush debtors, bankrupt creditors and lop at least four or five zeroes worth of funny money from the banking system’s quadrillion-dollar shell-game. I have written extensively on why hyperinflation is extremely unlikely to settle debts that have become vastly too large to repay. If you cannot understand why, let me pose this question: Do you actually believe the banksters will let you pay off your mortgage with a few hundred-thousand-dollar bills that you’ve peeled from your wallet? If you answered in the negative, you are implicitly a deflationist.

Since the start of ZIRP and NIRP it has been difficult to "be a deflationist" as we watched the global bubble of everything inflate; resource assets, equities, debt and of course real estate which Canadians with the help of foreign laundry services have pushed real estate prices into the top tiers of global pricing. In November 2018, I posted "Dirty Real Estate" which highlighted the "Vancouver Model" that has spread throughout Canada.

The C.D. Howe Institute study estimates of money laundering in Canada range from $5 billion to $100 billion. C.D. Howe Report, September 2018

e don't even know what the "value" of the crime is, but we know what the effect has been in terms of FOMO debt taken on by Canadians. Real estate prices have peaked in Canada and as they drop, the FOMO crowd has a tough choice to make: turn debt into equity quickly by selling the asset or stay in for the long haul and meet the amortization obligation. If it's the former, look for price drops to happen quickly as vendors compete for a diminishing supply of buyers; if it's the latter look for a slow Japanese style deflation and a return to savings as noted in my 2012 post "What Do You Do During a Housing Bust".

A return to savings will eventually allow the pendulum of capital investment to return to productive use. But asset deflation is in view now and we don't yet know it's future length of trend.

One asset class that retains value and even grows during a broad deflationary event is precious metals; and that canary in the coal mine is happening now. See my ongoing chart study of "real" gold and real estate.

And below, see Chris Kimble's
December 31, 2018 note to clients:

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Strength in Gold of late has it (the Gold/USD ratio) breaking above the top of this trading range at (2). What the ratio does at this resistance test will send an important message to the metals sector for the next few months.

CLICK HERE if you want a free trial of Chris Kimble's peerless financial market technical research.

Commodity Super Cycle

10/24/2018

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As I have been pointing out on my chart of TSX INDEXES for Energy, Real Estate, Financial Services, Gold and the Bank of Canada Commodities in $CAD, that...

...the Thompson Reuters CRB chart embedded in the chart shows that global commodities measured in USD has been dropping since 2008, although recently since September (2018), there has been a near term rally in commodities... BUT

...since Oct 3, 2018, the Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Index has been coiling down (MarketWatch.com).

On my Twitter Feed from @hks55 came their chart suggesting that the commodity super cycle is poised for another leg down due to China's slowdown in credit creation that had spurred the commodity boom as Kyle Bass illustrates in this comparison between Chinese credit creation and their GDP (the link includes the 41 second video).

CLICK TO GO TO ORIGINAL POST

China’s Slower Credit Growth
Underscores Worries Over Economy
Bloomberg, Aug 2018

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Credit Purge

9/25/2018

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Our Future is filled with Dumb Canadians Angus Reid July 2018

31% cannot afford for their kids to participate in after-school sports or music programs

41% haven’t been able to save any money for their children’s post-secondary education

45% say they could not afford to pay for a tutor if their child was failing at school

The public has been goosed into historically high leveraged balanced sheets that looked ok at the peak of Canadian housing prices in 2017 but now a year later, with interest rates and CPI rising (3% CPI at July 2018), and animal spirits fractured by Trump's war on our imports into the U.S., lenders are now purging out the marginal from the credit worthy. Our zeal for consumption is in the cooler.

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Half of Canadian jobs will be impacted by automation in next 10 years

"...a growing demand for “human skills” will be more crucial across job sectors. In particular, critical thinking, coordination, social perceptiveness, active listening and complex problem solving — described in the report as “human skills” — were identified as being key characteristics Canadians should develop to prepare for changes to the workforce." Global News March 2018

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What is the link between education and earnings?
Conference Board of Canada March 2013

"Canadians with a university degree earned $165 for every $100 earned by Canadian high school graduates. Those with a college degree earned $110 for every $100 earned by high school graduates, and those who did not graduate from high school earned only $80 for every $100 earned by high school graduates... The relatively lower financial returns on university education in Norway and Canada may be due to the dominance of their energy sectors, which offer relatively high-paying jobs that do not require university educations."

"Between 1998 and 2010...students skills deteriorated somewhat. The proportion of students with high-level reading, math, and science skills dropped, while the proportion of students with low-level reading and math skills increased."

"Canada needs to improve workplace skills training and lifelong education. Canada’s adult literacy skills are mediocre, with a large proportion of adults lacking the literacy skills necessary to function in the workplace. Canada gets a “C” and ranks 10th out of 15 peer countries on the indicator measuring adult participation in job-related non-formal education."

"Canada also underperforms in the highest levels of skills attainment. Canada produces relatively few graduates with PhDs and graduates in math, science, computer science and engineering. More graduates with advance qualifications in these fields would enhance innovation and productivity growth—and ultimately ensure a high and sustainable quality of life for all Canadians."

"Canada’s middle-of-the-pack ranking on university completion may reflect the fact that the financial return from investing in university education in Canada is also middle-of-the-pack at best. Many other countries (and the individuals in those countries) get much better returns on their tertiary investments."

"While not reflected in the report card due to lack of data and measurability challenges, there is a “learning recognition gap” in Canada. What this means is that people may hold knowledge and skills that are not formally recognized (through academic credits or trade/organization/professional certification) by employers or credential-granting institutions."

"An obvious example is immigrants whose foreign credentials are not recognized in Canada. The Alliance of Sector Councils stated that “every Canadian is affected by inefficient recognition. Canadians across the country are short of doctors and other health care workers, while thousands of highly educated newcomer health care workers are not allowed to provide the services that so many Canadians want. People with prior learning gained through work and training are similarly hindered by a lack of learning recognition, as are those who transfer between post-secondary institutions or, in the case of licensed occupations, between provinces."

Is Canada’s workforce sufficiently skilled?
Conference Board of Canada June 2014

No. Given that Canada is a leader on post-secondary educational attainment, one might reasonably expect that the country would also be a leader on adult skills. Yet Canada and most provinces do relatively poorly on adult literacy, numeracy, and problem-solving skills, earning mainly “C” and “D” grades.

What accounts for Canada’s poor performance on adult skills? One reason is that literacy and numeracy skills are not “fixed” forever—individuals can lose skills after they leave school, through lack of use.11 The longer someone has been out of the formal education system, the more impact other factors will have on their proficiency, such as their work and social environment. On average, the younger cohort, aged 16–24, have higher literacy scores than adults aged 45–65, and these results hold no matter what level of education the person has.12 In the absence of continuing education or workplace training, it appears likely that, on average, the skills of Canada’s workers diminish over time.

The country’s grades on adult skills, however, are weak and have deteriorated over the past decade. Canada’s other weaknesses are its low numbers of students graduating with PhDs and with degrees in science, math, computer science, and engineering.

China Might Beat The US in Artificial Intelligence
Eric Schmidt November 2017
"LET THEM IN"

Looks Like Canada

9/21/2018

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"New lending activity and refinancing have contracted significantly since the beginning of 2018, a culmination of regulatory pressure, enhanced scrutiny following the banking royal commission, and the self-fulfilling consequence of slowing house prices driving an investor pullback... A rising cost of credit represents a blunter instrument for slowing lending, since it impacts both owner-occupiers and investors in parallel,"JP Morgan's Henry St John
ABC.AU NEWS Sept 2018

The above sounds like it, but no,
that's not a quote about Canada;
but these are:

Canadian real estate sales are feeling the pinch of higher interest rates, and consumer credit isn’t far behind. Bank of Canada (BoC) numbers show household debt printed a new record high. Despite the record high, the rate of growth continues to slow for consumer debt levels. The decelerating growth is yet another indicator that the credit cycle has peaked. Better Dwelling, July 2018

Market Rate Outlook: One more hike this year plus two more hikes next year. The market is not fully pricing in the next BoC rate increase until December... Canadians are now more sensitive to higher rates than ever before. That means consumption is slowing faster with every 1/4% BoC rate increase. RateSpy.com Sept 2018

Canada's economy is set to slow down even with a NAFTA deal, economists say:

"Our research finds that even with a NAFTA deal in place, the long-desired rotation in growth towards exports and business investment will be sluggish and won't offset the coming slowdown in household spending and housing activity," Royce Mendes, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets

Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, is also expecting growth next year to slow to 1.8 per cent, as reduced consumer spending and housing activity will weigh on growth.

RBC senior economist Nathan Janzen said the bank doesn't publish forecasts for 2020, but agrees that growth is shifting lower.

"We do expect a more modest pace of consumer spending going forward, and while housing activity should remain a contributor to growth, this sector as well should see more modest growth relative to the past," said Brian DePratto, senior economist at TD Bank.

Quote Sources: CBC News Sept, 2018

And as my long term chart study of Canadian Debt, GDP, Foreign Direct Investment and Balance of Trade shows, since the credit crash of 2009, Canadian's awesome consumption via debt has not led to higher wage employment production in Canada but to lower wage warehousing and transportation of goods and services that we import to maintain our lifestyles.

"The one-million square foot Toronto centre will be Amazon’s sixth facility in Ontario and ninth in Canada." Financial Post, July 2018

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"Stabilization should not be interpreted as the start of another strong rally," they warned (TD Bank economists Derek Burleton and Rishi Sondhi). That's because mortgage rates are on the rise, and home affordability levels have reached their worst levels in a quarter century... in fact historical data shows that over the past half century, inflation-adjusted house prices in Toronto fell for about a third of the time. huffingtonpost.ca, Sept 2018

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Debt vs Employment

5/28/2018

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My recent update of Foreign Direct Investment on my Canadian Household Debt, GDP, and Balance of Trade chart demonstrates that Canadian Capital would rather flee than fight.

The chart above adds more to the story. Since the dot com bust in 2000, net trade has plunged and to preserve lifestyle, household debt to income has soared to recent highs. Then with the credit collapse in 2008, import prices began to soar while the employment rate dropped against rising productivity and a savings rate that has plunged since the 1981 interest rate spike (Trading Economics Chart). Why bother saving when the government monetary policy is to leverage one's way to prosperity and let time and asset price inflation take care of balance sheets. It's a global trend and the fear of missing out has been a powerful input.

But peak debt may be upon us in this business cycle as banks begin to report a drop in mortgage demand.

The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce anticipates it will issue half as many new mortgages in the latter part of the year as it did in the same period of 2017 amid cooling in the real estate market. Times Colonist May 23, 2018

The ranks of the credit worthy are thinning. Debt retirement is either a slow process of repayment, or a quick liquidation of assets. Your balance sheet is the clue to your future. Governments demand stress tests; individuals should as well.

David Rosenberg: Ottawa created the debt monster that Canada now faces.
"47% of residential mortgages
are set to roll over for renewal next year."

David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates, joins BNN Bloomberg to provide his take on the Canadian economy as Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz sounds the alarm on household debt in this country. Originally aired on May 2, 2018 on BNN Bloomberg

Market Timing

4/30/2018

As we wait for the April real estate data to be released next week, let's take another look at the month end U.S. S&P 500 via Lance Roberts at realinvestmentadvice.com

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"With portfolios still weighted towards equity, but overweight in cash and shorter-duration fixed income, we can afford to sit still into next week and allow the market to choose its path."

"We can afford to sit still..." Yes in the cash markets, sitting still is an option with risk management in place. But in real estate portfolios, if a correction or major negative price trend develops, everyone is involved unless sellers can successfully get ahead of the change in trend. But that requires acting before a wide acceptance of a new paradigm is acknowledged. By that time, buyers will have gone on strike as they wait for their opportunity to lead the market.

Lance argues in the chart above that the...

Intermediate-Term Picture Remains Bearish

On a intermediate-term basis, both of our weekly “sell signals” remain, and as shown below, the market once again failed at its overhead trend line last week as well as the downtrend resistance from the previous peaks. These failures keep downward pressure on the market as prices continue to follow the “path of least resistance.”

The weekly chart also shows the rare “buy” and “sell” signals issued on a longer-term basis. Currently, as the market struggles with its current correction process, it is also very close to triggering a more important “sell signal” which could indicate a further correctionary process over the next several months.

Over the last 25-years, these sell signals have only been triggered 5-other times.

1. At the peak of the market prior to the “Asian Contagion”
2. Just prior to the peak of the market in 2000
3. At the peak of the market in 2007
4. At the peak of the market 2011 as QE-2 ended and the U.S.was facing the “debt ceiling debate.”
5. Near the peak of the market from the collision of the end QE-3, the “taper tantrum” and “Brexit.”

I can't find much of a record to suggest that a violent drop in stock market equities will necessarily drag real estate prices down, but a confluence of rising rates (Globe & Mail), stress testing (Global News), foreign buyer taxes (Financial Post), labour force displacement (Canadian Underwriter) and present historic real estate valuations (my 6 city chart) is a negative to price growth.

But I did find this chart here of the S&P 500 vs the Case Shiller U.S. Housing Index:

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It is clear that some sort of correlation exists between stock values and real estate values. Stocks started their recent bull run in 2009. As you can see from the chart above, real estate values didn’t start moving up steadily until 2012. So there is a lag here. But what is interesting is the correction in stock values in 2008 matched up with real estate values. In fact, real estate values started trending lower before the market crash. DoctorHousingBubble.com

In January 2018 the S&P 500, DOW and TSX peaked.

Toronto real estate peaked in 1Q 2017 although condo prices hit a new price high last month.

Vancouver prices peaked 3Q 2017 and like Toronto, strata prices are still peaking as of last month.

Calgary prices peaked 2Q 2017 with condo prices hitting their high back in 3Q 2016

U.S. vs Canada Private Debt to GDP

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Steve Keen "Can we avoid another financial crisis?"

The U.S. and the U.K. can but China, Australia, Canada, Belgium, Norway, and Sweden are next. (paraphrased)

Persistent Risk

3/20/2018

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Libor’s spread over the overnight index swap rate, known as Libor-OIS, has widened... another sign that banks face steeper funding costs. Bloomberg March 12, 2018

As noted on the charts: "About $350 trillion of financial products and loans are linked to Libor, with a large chunk hinged to the dollar-based version of the benchmark." Bloomberg March 12, 2018, and...

"...the widening nevertheless reflects an increasing scarcity of dollar funding..." Bloomberg March 20, 2018.

Scarcity of Dollar funding means we should prepare for a rise in the $USD:$CAD pair. In terms of Canadian real estate I chart it in USD here. A strengthening USD means higher import costs for Canadian consumers at a time when interest rates are trending up.

Our Canadian national proclivity to fund our lifestyles via debt rather than income continues to produce a negative Net Trade and FDI, a flattening GDP and growing record household debt levels, charted here.

Why Consumer Debt is Canada's Greatest Economic Risk
"Consumption to Top Off" Bloomberg March 15, 2018

Boom or Bust Interest Rate Edition

2/28/2018

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Chatter on Twitter was heavy yesterday about potential rate increases for 2018. I mash-upped the CoreLogic chart to the left with yesterday's spike in the 2 and 10 year yields (via ZeroHedge 2yr chart and 10yr chart).

The CoreLogic Home Price Index Forecast suggests U.S. home prices will rise less than 5 percent this year, but if some 2018 mortgage rate forecasts pan out the mortgage payments homebuyers face could increase closer to 15 percent.
Andrew LePage, CoreLogic, February 15, 2018

15% mortgage payment increase? That's gonna cut into renovation plans and dreams of a new truck in the driveway.

But as I noted in my previous post; in December 2017 the Canada 10yr less 2yr metric, which is a measure of a recession threat, narrowed to only 32bps away from negative inversion where the 2 year yield would be greater than the 10 year.

But the new U.S. Fed chairman Jerome Powell pitched their congress yesterday with:

"recent data has strengthened his confidence on inflation." and
"yield curve has been a problem in past when Fed got behind and had to raise rates quickly; that's not the case now"

The Fed's is planning on three rate hikes in 2018, but after the announcement yesterday futures traders reacted and began pricing in a 1/3 possibility of a fourth rate hike! Zoom zoom.

Meanwhile the Bank of Canada is not so sure about it's course this year:

Bank Of Canada To Take Cautious Path With Two More Hikes In 2018: Reuters Poll

The central bank has raised interest rates three times since last July, amid a robust job market and solid economic growth, but policymakers have said repeatedly they will be cautious in considering further hikes. Leah Schnurr, Reuters February 27, 2018

Today, February 28, 2018 the Canadian 10yr yield is ticking down as traders bet on higher prices not higher yields:

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Debt Leader

11/23/2017

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Canada is leading the way among OECD members in household debt measures. Also of note is that labour costs in Canada were negative at -0.4% Y/Y

Debt has been fueling lifestyle especially in cities like Vancouver and Toronto where extreme speculation, serial flipping and inert local and federal officials stand by with failed policies and ineffective regulations. There is no cop on the beat; it's do unto others what you want.

In less than 2 decades we have gone from a country where the ability to easily change employment or one's residence has evaporated. Now we are pinned to our job and our postal code because leaving either results in lineups to fill our departure.

I suggest that both the opening of access to information via the internet and the collapse of bond yields sponsored and promoted by governments mirroring each other have left us with a country of over-consuming and under-producing populace.

My regularly updated Household Debt Chart includes the FDI-FDO plot which illustrates the point; we are a country of consumers highly prized by offshore producers, a situation that is now entrenched in our behaviour, modified by our regulations. Currently, for every $1.00 of Foreign Direct Investment into Canada, there is $1.27 of Canadian savings being invested offshore where the yield is greater.

The Paradise Papers underscores the problem; greater access to stealth information along with domiciled yield suppression has led to increasing capital flight by Canadians and Canadian corporations unwilling to invest in Canada. This and the vacuum created from interest rate suppression has turned a lot of us into serial house and condo flippers and the ease and return on investment has attracted a flood of offshore money wanting in on the fun.

Those of us who could not or did not participate in the mania have been left with the sorry reality that for the last 10 years, housing costs in the runaway markets have increased by 10-12% per year or more depending on location and product. Wages have not increased to the same degree but balance sheet debt to equity ratios have.

CBC News November 23, 2017 - Canadian households lead the world in terms of debt.
Toronto Sun July 2, 2017 - Canada's middle class shrinks.
Market Watch November 3, 2017 - Blame the Internet for your stingy paychecks.
Stats Can November 11, 2017 - Housing prices, social ties and transfer payments may inhibit mobility.
Stats Can March 24, 2017 - Canadian waste management revenues increased 11% in two years to 2014.
CHPC.biz Ongoing Chart - Foreign Direct Investment OUT higher than IN over the last 20 years means Canadian companies are investing outside of Canada to get a better return on Capital and Labour.
CBC News November 6, 2017 - More than 3,000 Canadian names in the Paradise Papers.
Globe and Mail October 15, 2017 - The CRA is unable to identify the assignors who sell (flip) their contracts.

Millennials on Money: 'I am working two jobs right now’
CBC News - January 5, 2017

<<Previous

Peak Consumption

Peak Consumption in Canada
appears to be at hand.

Oil <23

Commodity Super Cycle

China’s Slower Credit Growth
Underscores Worries Over Economy
Bloomberg, Aug 2018

Credit Purge

Half of Canadian jobs will be impacted by automation in next 10 years

China Might Beat The US in Artificial Intelligence
Eric Schmidt November 2017
"LET THEM IN"

Looks Like Canada

Debt vs Employment

David Rosenberg: Ottawa created the debt monster that Canada now faces.
"47% of residential mortgages
are set to roll over for renewal next year."

Market Timing

U.S. vs Canada Private Debt to GDP

Steve Keen "Can we avoid another financial crisis?"

Persistent Risk

Why Consumer Debt is Canada's Greatest Economic Risk
"Consumption to Top Off" Bloomberg March 15, 2018

Boom or Bust Interest Rate Edition

Debt Leader

Millennials on Money: 'I am working two jobs right now’
CBC News - January 5, 2017

History, Charts &
Curated Readings

Archives

Categories

Peak Consumption in Canadaappears to be at hand.

China’s Slower Credit Growth Underscores Worries Over Economy ​Bloomberg, Aug 2018 ​

Half of Canadian jobs will be impacted by automation in next 10 years

China Might Beat The US in Artificial Intelligence Eric Schmidt November 2017 "LET THEM IN"

David Rosenberg: Ottawa created the debt monster that Canada now faces. "47% of residential mortgages ​are set to roll over for renewal next year."

​U.S. vs Canada Private Debt to GDP

Steve Keen "Can we avoid another financial crisis?"

Why Consumer Debt is Canada's Greatest Economic Risk "Consumption to Top Off" Bloomberg March 15, 2018

Millennials on Money: 'I am working two jobs right now’ ​CBC News - January 5, 2017

History, Charts &Curated Readings

Archives

Categories

Peak Consumption in Canada
appears to be at hand.

China’s Slower Credit Growth
Underscores Worries Over Economy
Bloomberg, Aug 2018

China Might Beat The US in Artificial Intelligence
Eric Schmidt November 2017
"LET THEM IN"

David Rosenberg: Ottawa created the debt monster that Canada now faces.
"47% of residential mortgages
are set to roll over for renewal next year."

U.S. vs Canada Private Debt to GDP

Why Consumer Debt is Canada's Greatest Economic Risk
"Consumption to Top Off" Bloomberg March 15, 2018

Millennials on Money: 'I am working two jobs right now’
CBC News - January 5, 2017

History, Charts &
Curated Readings