HISTORY & READINGS at Brian Ripley's Canadian Housing Price Charts & Plunge-O-Meter

Debt vs Employment

5/28/2018

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My recent update of Foreign Direct Investment on my Canadian Household Debt, GDP, and Balance of Trade chart demonstrates that Canadian Capital would rather flee than fight.

The chart above adds more to the story. Since the dot com bust in 2000, net trade has plunged and to preserve lifestyle, household debt to income has soared to recent highs. Then with the credit collapse in 2008, import prices began to soar while the employment rate dropped against rising productivity and a savings rate that has plunged since the 1981 interest rate spike (Trading Economics Chart). Why bother saving when the government monetary policy is to leverage one's way to prosperity and let time and asset price inflation take care of balance sheets. It's a global trend and the fear of missing out has been a powerful input.

But peak debt may be upon us in this business cycle as banks begin to report a drop in mortgage demand.

The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce anticipates it will issue half as many new mortgages in the latter part of the year as it did in the same period of 2017 amid cooling in the real estate market. Times Colonist May 23, 2018

The ranks of the credit worthy are thinning. Debt retirement is either a slow process of repayment, or a quick liquidation of assets. Your balance sheet is the clue to your future. Governments demand stress tests; individuals should as well.

David Rosenberg: Ottawa created the debt monster that Canada now faces.
"47% of residential mortgages
are set to roll over for renewal next year."

David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates, joins BNN Bloomberg to provide his take on the Canadian economy as Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz sounds the alarm on household debt in this country. Originally aired on May 2, 2018 on BNN Bloomberg

Market Timing

4/30/2018

As we wait for the April real estate data to be released next week, let's take another look at the month end U.S. S&P 500 via Lance Roberts at realinvestmentadvice.com

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"With portfolios still weighted towards equity, but overweight in cash and shorter-duration fixed income, we can afford to sit still into next week and allow the market to choose its path."

"We can afford to sit still..." Yes in the cash markets, sitting still is an option with risk management in place. But in real estate portfolios, if a correction or major negative price trend develops, everyone is involved unless sellers can successfully get ahead of the change in trend. But that requires acting before a wide acceptance of a new paradigm is acknowledged. By that time, buyers will have gone on strike as they wait for their opportunity to lead the market.

Lance argues in the chart above that the...

Intermediate-Term Picture Remains Bearish

On a intermediate-term basis, both of our weekly “sell signals” remain, and as shown below, the market once again failed at its overhead trend line last week as well as the downtrend resistance from the previous peaks. These failures keep downward pressure on the market as prices continue to follow the “path of least resistance.”

The weekly chart also shows the rare “buy” and “sell” signals issued on a longer-term basis. Currently, as the market struggles with its current correction process, it is also very close to triggering a more important “sell signal” which could indicate a further correctionary process over the next several months.

Over the last 25-years, these sell signals have only been triggered 5-other times.

1. At the peak of the market prior to the “Asian Contagion”
2. Just prior to the peak of the market in 2000
3. At the peak of the market in 2007
4. At the peak of the market 2011 as QE-2 ended and the U.S.was facing the “debt ceiling debate.”
5. Near the peak of the market from the collision of the end QE-3, the “taper tantrum” and “Brexit.”

I can't find much of a record to suggest that a violent drop in stock market equities will necessarily drag real estate prices down, but a confluence of rising rates (Globe & Mail), stress testing (Global News), foreign buyer taxes (Financial Post), labour force displacement (Canadian Underwriter) and present historic real estate valuations (my 6 city chart) is a negative to price growth.

But I did find this chart here of the S&P 500 vs the Case Shiller U.S. Housing Index:

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It is clear that some sort of correlation exists between stock values and real estate values. Stocks started their recent bull run in 2009. As you can see from the chart above, real estate values didn’t start moving up steadily until 2012. So there is a lag here. But what is interesting is the correction in stock values in 2008 matched up with real estate values. In fact, real estate values started trending lower before the market crash. DoctorHousingBubble.com

In January 2018 the S&P 500, DOW and TSX peaked.

Toronto real estate peaked in 1Q 2017 although condo prices hit a new price high last month.

Vancouver prices peaked 3Q 2017 and like Toronto, strata prices are still peaking as of last month.

Calgary prices peaked 2Q 2017 with condo prices hitting their high back in 3Q 2016

U.S. vs Canada Private Debt to GDP

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Steve Keen "Can we avoid another financial crisis?"

The U.S. and the U.K. can but China, Australia, Canada, Belgium, Norway, and Sweden are next. (paraphrased)

Persistent Risk

3/20/2018

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Libor’s spread over the overnight index swap rate, known as Libor-OIS, has widened... another sign that banks face steeper funding costs. Bloomberg March 12, 2018

As noted on the charts: "About $350 trillion of financial products and loans are linked to Libor, with a large chunk hinged to the dollar-based version of the benchmark." Bloomberg March 12, 2018, and...

"...the widening nevertheless reflects an increasing scarcity of dollar funding..." Bloomberg March 20, 2018.

Scarcity of Dollar funding means we should prepare for a rise in the $USD:$CAD pair. In terms of Canadian real estate I chart it in USD here. A strengthening USD means higher import costs for Canadian consumers at a time when interest rates are trending up.

Our Canadian national proclivity to fund our lifestyles via debt rather than income continues to produce a negative Net Trade and FDI, a flattening GDP and growing record household debt levels, charted here.

Why Consumer Debt is Canada's Greatest Economic Risk
"Consumption to Top Off" Bloomberg March 15, 2018

Boom or Bust Interest Rate Edition

2/28/2018

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Chatter on Twitter was heavy yesterday about potential rate increases for 2018. I mash-upped the CoreLogic chart to the left with yesterday's spike in the 2 and 10 year yields (via ZeroHedge 2yr chart and 10yr chart).

The CoreLogic Home Price Index Forecast suggests U.S. home prices will rise less than 5 percent this year, but if some 2018 mortgage rate forecasts pan out the mortgage payments homebuyers face could increase closer to 15 percent.
Andrew LePage, CoreLogic, February 15, 2018

15% mortgage payment increase? That's gonna cut into renovation plans and dreams of a new truck in the driveway.

But as I noted in my previous post; in December 2017 the Canada 10yr less 2yr metric, which is a measure of a recession threat, narrowed to only 32bps away from negative inversion where the 2 year yield would be greater than the 10 year.

But the new U.S. Fed chairman Jerome Powell pitched their congress yesterday with:

"recent data has strengthened his confidence on inflation." and
"yield curve has been a problem in past when Fed got behind and had to raise rates quickly; that's not the case now"

The Fed's is planning on three rate hikes in 2018, but after the announcement yesterday futures traders reacted and began pricing in a 1/3 possibility of a fourth rate hike! Zoom zoom.

Meanwhile the Bank of Canada is not so sure about it's course this year:

Bank Of Canada To Take Cautious Path With Two More Hikes In 2018: Reuters Poll

The central bank has raised interest rates three times since last July, amid a robust job market and solid economic growth, but policymakers have said repeatedly they will be cautious in considering further hikes. Leah Schnurr, Reuters February 27, 2018

Today, February 28, 2018 the Canadian 10yr yield is ticking down as traders bet on higher prices not higher yields:

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Debt Leader

11/23/2017

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Canada is leading the way among OECD members in household debt measures. Also of note is that labour costs in Canada were negative at -0.4% Y/Y

Debt has been fueling lifestyle especially in cities like Vancouver and Toronto where extreme speculation, serial flipping and inert local and federal officials stand by with failed policies and ineffective regulations. There is no cop on the beat; it's do unto others what you want.

In less than 2 decades we have gone from a country where the ability to easily change employment or one's residence has evaporated. Now we are pinned to our job and our postal code because leaving either results in lineups to fill our departure.

I suggest that both the opening of access to information via the internet and the collapse of bond yields sponsored and promoted by governments mirroring each other have left us with a country of over-consuming and under-producing populace.

My regularly updated Household Debt Chart includes the FDI-FDO plot which illustrates the point; we are a country of consumers highly prized by offshore producers, a situation that is now entrenched in our behaviour, modified by our regulations. Currently, for every $1.00 of Foreign Direct Investment into Canada, there is $1.27 of Canadian savings being invested offshore where the yield is greater.

The Paradise Papers underscores the problem; greater access to stealth information along with domiciled yield suppression has led to increasing capital flight by Canadians and Canadian corporations unwilling to invest in Canada. This and the vacuum created from interest rate suppression has turned a lot of us into serial house and condo flippers and the ease and return on investment has attracted a flood of offshore money wanting in on the fun.

Those of us who could not or did not participate in the mania have been left with the sorry reality that for the last 10 years, housing costs in the runaway markets have increased by 10-12% per year or more depending on location and product. Wages have not increased to the same degree but balance sheet debt to equity ratios have.

CBC News November 23, 2017 - Canadian households lead the world in terms of debt.
Toronto Sun July 2, 2017 - Canada's middle class shrinks.
Market Watch November 3, 2017 - Blame the Internet for your stingy paychecks.
Stats Can November 11, 2017 - Housing prices, social ties and transfer payments may inhibit mobility.
Stats Can March 24, 2017 - Canadian waste management revenues increased 11% in two years to 2014.
CHPC.biz Ongoing Chart - Foreign Direct Investment OUT higher than IN over the last 20 years means Canadian companies are investing outside of Canada to get a better return on Capital and Labour.
CBC News November 6, 2017 - More than 3,000 Canadian names in the Paradise Papers.
Globe and Mail October 15, 2017 - The CRA is unable to identify the assignors who sell (flip) their contracts.

Millennials on Money: 'I am working two jobs right now’
CBC News - January 5, 2017

June 23rd, 2017

6/23/2017

Government by Lottery

1/1/2017

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2017 kicks off with the BC Government helicoptering 2nd mortgages ONLY if you qualify and agree to take on a high ratio insured 1st mortgage. Welcome to late stage STATE SPONSORED SUBPRIME LENDING.

In 1986 Bill Vander Zalm promised to lower the price of beer (page 3, 2nd bullet point, The Ubyssey October 24, 1986). It never happened but Bill caught 50% of the popular vote in that election with his "Fresh Start" campaign against the NDP.

Thirty years later the average price of a detached house in Vancouver has risen more than tenfold while average earnings have only gone up 2.5 to 3 times and the government plan now is to stoke a consumption mania with zero interest and principal 2nd mortgage money for 5 years as well as beer in your barbershop. The next BC provincial election is in May 2017 and the credit tap is wide open. Place your bets.

Changes to B.C. liquor rules allow barbershops, salons and other retail outlets to serve alcohol.

January 23, 2017, is when barbershops, salons, spas, cooking schools, art galleries, bookstores and other B.C. businesses that do not have bars and restaurants on their premises can apply for a liquor-primary licence so that liquor can be served to customers in these non-traditional establishments. All sorts of businesses will be able to apply for a liquor-primary licence as long as they do not operate from a motor vehicle, or target minors. And this may be of great interest to many small retail businesses that would like to provide, as a courtesy, a glass of wine, champagne or other alcoholic beverage to their customers without fear of breaking the law. Globe and Mail November 19, 2016

This "1st-time" homebuyers grant only serves the 'privileged,' says Nathanael Lauster UBC Associate Professor in Sociology

Inside 'House of Debt' with Amir Sufi

Canadian household debt levels continue to peak.

HARD EIGHT

Canada-US-Mexico Wages

9/26/2016

Manufacturing wages in Canada, USA & Mexico

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While we wait for the Clinton Trump toss up at Hofstra U. tonight, let's look at some data that affects everyone on the continent, ie: manufacturing wages measured in USD since the gloom of 2009 in Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. I have been showing for some time now, that Canada's net Federal Direct Investment balance has been negative for nearly 20 years and last year it widened significantly.

Clearly, capital likes to go where the return on investment is high especially in productive sectors like manufacturing where competition for buyers is cutthroat.

The chart above shows that Canadian manufacturing wages have jumped 21% in the last 7 years while in the U.S. they have gone up only 12% and in Mexico they have DROPPED 7% to US$2.10 per hour. (no typo - that's US$2.10/hr)

Canadian households have become highly indebted (168% debt to income) via government insured credit and animal spirit peer pressure. The IMF has been sounding the alarm bell at least since 2011 "Households, however, already have done enough borrowing, at least when it comes to real estate. Any further buildup of debt only risks a painful collapse." That's what they said 5 years ago.

Canadians are just $200 away from being overwhelmed by debt, new survey finds Financial Post September 28, 2016

> Calgary-based MNP LLP, said 56 per cent of those polled — up from 48 per cent surveyed six months ago — are close to facing negative cash flow should they take on up to another $200 in monthly debt.

>The online survey of of 1,502 Canadians conducted between Sept. 6 and Sept. 12 also found 31 per cent are already not paying their bills on time, making them technically insolvent, MNP says.

> A survey this month from TransUnion found 718,000 Canadians can’t even absorb a 25-basis point increase in interest rates without being in a negative cash flow situation. One percentage point would drive 917,000 over the edge, the credit rating agency found.

> In another recent study, the Canadian Payroll Association said 48 per cent of Canadians couldn’t make ends meets if they missed just one paycheque – a dire picture of a country living paycheque-to-paycheque.

> MNP said there is some positive news about debt costs. More Canadians now say they are concerned about their debt: 52 per cent, up from 43 per cent six months ago.

And here we are now trading real estate to each other at prices far greater than most places on the planet and that has attracted global capital into Canada to buy our hovels (speculative consumption). It's kept the F.I.R.E. service sector fully employed but has done very little for long term productive investment because long term bond yields cannot compete with flipping real estate. In the last 43 months, Vancouver single family detached house prices have gone up 1.7% per month or 20.4% per annum for nearly four years!

The latest sales/inventory ratio suggests that the risk of sentiment change is occurring in Vancouver (not yet in Toronto); but our very high labour cost relative to our U.S. and Mexican trade channels is going to put pressure on the Bank of Canada and the Federal Government to let the CAD/USD continue dropping (Bloomberg May 2016) "Currency depreciations would help many of the U.S.'s G7 partners (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, & EU) a lot while hurting the U.S. little, if at all. In other words, a G7 currency war would be fine as long as the U.S. remained a pacifist."

A lower CAD/USD will help Canadian exporters to some degree but not enough to compete directly with Mexico and other low labour cost and low-bar regulatory regimes (China, Vietnam, Indonesia etal). A lower CAD/USD will also put more inflationary pressure on import costs into Canada reducing disposable consumer income that will affect consumption of domestic services including the demand for credit while debt repayment schedules may have to have their amortization terms lengthened especially if earnings growth slows.

ITEM: BlackBerry Abandons Its Phone New York Times September 28, 2016 - In recent years, BlackBerry has cut thousands of jobs and closed several operating centers, including one in this city (Halifax), over the last three years. A company spokeswoman declined to discuss any future layoffs.

A lower CAD/USD will not be favourable to the foreign buyers of Canadian real estate who purchased in the last 7 years if their own currencies do not drop as much as the CAD. Will they continue to hold a wasting asset that produces a negative cash flow?

The hysterical mania of buying real estate in Canada will come to an end when we see listing inventories rise, perhaps in 1Q 2017 if a shift from greed to fear manifests.

And from CNBC, September 27, 2016:

"Vancouver in Canada has been identified by Swiss bank UBS as the global financial center with the riskiest housing bubble."

"Currently, house prices in Vancouver seem clearly out of step with economic fundamentals, and are in bubble risk territory."

In the meantime, "The OECD warns that a low-growth trap has taken root, as poor growth expectations further depress trade investment, productivity and wages." Sept 21, 2016

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China Shop Bull

6/23/2016

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While we wait for the Brexit vote, here is Patrick Ceresna's hour long video explaining in detail his argument for what will trigger the Canadian real estate market selloff. My bullet points from the video are below and the chart (left) shows credit is tightening.

Are You Ready For a Canadian Real Estate Crash?
Patrick Ceresna Chief Derivative Market Strategist
LearnToTradeGlobal.com (1 hr. 4:35 min)

Bullet Points from the Video Above

MACRO EVIDENCE OF PENDING CRASH

Currency affects commodities, the bond markets and real estate.
Price discovery is a function of liquidity not fundamentals which are a long term attribute.
Prices are created by positive or negative feedback loops.
Bubbles deflate to their fundamental base.
Tech 1995-2003 (up 100%, down 90%)
Silver 2001-2012 (up 100%, down 40%)
U.S. Homes 2001-2012 (up 100%, down 40%)

COMPONENTS OF A BUBBLE

A believable idea (potash 2007-08 "everyone has to eat")
There is a surplus of funds and shortage of opportunity (low interest rate prompts a search for yield).
The idea cannot be disproved.
The idea shifts from the minority to the majority view.
The overvaluation is justified as the new paradigm (it's different this time).
A widespread fear of missing out ensues.
Rampant financing schemes occur.
A cult obsession (everyone has an interest).
The bubble becomes unbelievably long.
Objective people begin to believe the story.

THE BUBBLE BURSTS

Prices drop and supply grows.
Investors see risk.
Credit dries up.
Frauds are exposed.
Governments intervene.

THE MINSKY MOMENT

An exponential rise in price occurs as the cycle ends.
A trigger is needed to reverse the positive feedback loop (China).
Prices drop, rates rise and commodities are weak.

CHINA WILL BE THE TRIGGER

The U.S. housing crash was triggered by the ARM (adjustable rate mortgage) reset.
This time the events will be international triggered by China and its USD$4 trillion in foreign currency reserves.
Chinese commercial banks increased credit from USD$4T to USD$34T in 10 years increasing the bank debt to 3 times GDP with an estimated USD$1T in non performing loans. (In the U.S. housing crash, their banks had created USD$16T in bank debt which was only 1 times GDP with non performing loans at less than 1/2 trillion USD$.
China's 4 big banks are bigger than the 6 largest global banks.
A massive credit orgy has been created and easy credit misallocated into unproductive end results (ghost cities etc).
The IMF warns that China's credit risk is systemic.

WHY SHOULD CANADIANS CARE?

The commodity sector is in a bear market.
There is a currency war going on.
Slow growth is deflationary (see my debt chart).
China will not have a new credit cycle (The PBOC warns of an "L" shaped landing).
China's Yuan is pegged to the USD forcing them to buy and sell USD and the PBOC wants to un-peg.
The USD rally has the Yuan up 45% against the CAD and there has been a USD$1 trillon of capital outflow from China chasing Canadian and other weak FX country's real estate.
Un-anchored buyers from China etal have bid the real estate market up and out of equilibrium.
The China window is closing, they are stopping their capital outflow with restrictions against funding loopholes (Hong Kong, Macau, Bitcoin etal)

BASE CASE SCENARIO

The Chinese Government will implement their Yuan devaluation.
it will be a huge macro event as the Chinese bubble deteriorates.
The PBOC will bail out their banks.
The Yuan/CAD will plummet.
The positive feedback loop in Canadian real estate will turn to a negative feedback loop.
More sellers will emerge as credit tightens.
Real estate prices will drop to fundamentals regressing to 2010-11 levels.

DELAY SCENARIO

USD rallies but Yuan does not devalue igniting a second wave of capital outflow.

June 9, 2016: Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz cautioned that climbing real estate prices have outpaced local economic fundamentals like job creation, immigration and income growth.

June 13, 2016: Financial markets are worried about China because its debt has surged to a record 237% of gross domestic product.

Here's Why China's Economy Will Be So Hard to Fix

"The real problem has been... that in a Bubble,
everyone gets in trouble
at the same time"
Bob Hoye, June 16, 2016

Credit Cycles

12/10/2015

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First In ~ First Out

According to StatsCan, in 2001 after the dot.com blowout and the markets then turned to commodities, there were +/- 329,129 employees working in the Oil, Gas & Mining industries per year in Canada and in full year 2014 that number had increased by 60.8% to 529,248.

This includes "support activities" but not the peripheral jobs in the general economy that depend on the spending by those oil, gas and mining employees.

In the chart above, the top panel shows U.S. non-financial corporate debt to GDP at levels where credit defaults start hitting the front page. The lower panel shows the cumulative flow of investment funds in the U.S. and illustrates that institutional money is way ahead of private client money in getting out of the way of market risk to the downside.

According to the New York Times December 8, 2015 "If It Owns a Well or a Mine, It’s Probably in Trouble".

“The world of commodities has been turned upside down,” said Daniel Yergin, the energy historian and vice chairman of IHS, a consultant firm. “Instead of tight supply and strong demand, we have tepid demand and oversupply and overcapacity for commodity production. It’s the end of an era that is not going to come back soon.”

Some energy experts are even beginning to express concerns that sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia and other wealthy Persian Gulf and oil-producing countries will redeem their money from investment firms in the coming year to shore up their balance sheets. If they do, the moves could initiate more instability in global equity and debt markets.

The full article is worth reading for Canadians who are also heavily leveraged and require employment earnings to satisfy debt repayment on assets that have insufficient equity to refinance.

Credit lines drying up for oil companies?

Notice the comments about the competition between Sunni (Saudi Arabia) and Shia (Iran) oil.

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Distress (bonds trading over 1,000bps) has been spreading across the HY space. From its starting point in energy a year ago, it has now reached other commodity-sensitive areas such as transportation, materials, capital goods, and commercial services. But it did not stop here and is also visible in places like retail, gaming, media, consumer staples, and technology – all areas that were widely expected to be insulated from low oil prices, if not even benefitting form them.

In other words, what was until a year ago a purely "energy" phenomenon is now an "everything" phenomenon, despite promises by every prominent economist that plunging energy prices are great news for the economy.

<<Previous

Debt vs Employment

David Rosenberg: Ottawa created the debt monster that Canada now faces.
"47% of residential mortgages
are set to roll over for renewal next year."

Market Timing

U.S. vs Canada Private Debt to GDP

Steve Keen "Can we avoid another financial crisis?"

Persistent Risk

Why Consumer Debt is Canada's Greatest Economic Risk
"Consumption to Top Off" Bloomberg March 15, 2018

Boom or Bust Interest Rate Edition

Debt Leader

Millennials on Money: 'I am working two jobs right now’
CBC News - January 5, 2017

June 23rd, 2017

Government by Lottery

This "1st-time" homebuyers grant only serves the 'privileged,' says Nathanael Lauster UBC Associate Professor in Sociology

Inside 'House of Debt' with Amir Sufi

HARD EIGHT

Canada-US-Mexico Wages

China Shop Bull

Are You Ready For a Canadian Real Estate Crash?
Patrick Ceresna Chief Derivative Market Strategist
LearnToTradeGlobal.com (1 hr. 4:35 min)

Bullet Points from the Video Above

Here's Why China's Economy Will Be So Hard to Fix

Credit Cycles

Credit lines drying up for oil companies?

History, Charts &
Curated Readings

Archives

Categories

David Rosenberg: Ottawa created the debt monster that Canada now faces. "47% of residential mortgages ​are set to roll over for renewal next year."

​U.S. vs Canada Private Debt to GDP

Steve Keen "Can we avoid another financial crisis?"

Why Consumer Debt is Canada's Greatest Economic Risk "Consumption to Top Off" Bloomberg March 15, 2018

Millennials on Money: 'I am working two jobs right now’ ​CBC News - January 5, 2017

This "1st-time" homebuyers grant only serves the 'privileged,' says Nathanael Lauster UBC Associate Professor in Sociology

Inside 'House of Debt' with Amir Sufi

HARD EIGHT

Are You Ready For a Canadian Real Estate Crash? Patrick Ceresna Chief Derivative Market Strategist ​LearnToTradeGlobal.com (1 hr. 4:35 min)

Bullet Points from the Video Above

Here's Why China's Economy Will Be So Hard to Fix

Credit lines drying up for oil companies?

History, Charts &Curated Readings

Archives

Categories

David Rosenberg: Ottawa created the debt monster that Canada now faces.
"47% of residential mortgages
are set to roll over for renewal next year."

U.S. vs Canada Private Debt to GDP

Why Consumer Debt is Canada's Greatest Economic Risk
"Consumption to Top Off" Bloomberg March 15, 2018

Millennials on Money: 'I am working two jobs right now’
CBC News - January 5, 2017

Are You Ready For a Canadian Real Estate Crash?
Patrick Ceresna Chief Derivative Market Strategist
LearnToTradeGlobal.com (1 hr. 4:35 min)

History, Charts &
Curated Readings