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A tweet from @JohnPasalis last week caught my attention; it included a chart (left) of the number of home sales the week before Christmas plotted over the last 10 years. The end of year swarm of sales by the FOMO 2.0 crowd is a 10 year record (maybe longer) of over 40% more than the highest of previous years recorded. Wow. I mashed up the chart with end of year data for average SF Detached Y/Y price increases and the Bank of Canada 10 year bond rate. It looks to me that as interest rates drop, the demand rises for physical assets. This can also been seen since the asset crash into March 2009 in my chart of SF Detached, Bitcoin and Gold. And if we look at the "Real" BoC Bank Rate chart which has been mostly negative since the 2009 crash, it becomes even more evident that the reach for yield comes at the expense of risk management. Although the Bank of Canada rejects the policy use of negative nominal rates (chart left), real negative rates continue to animate the FOMO crowd and force the weaker hands into lower consumption and higher savings to repair balance sheets. At the retail street level, the major banks all agree in their forecast statements (chart left) that 5 year fixed mortgage rates will remain well under 3% for at least the next two full years through 2022. These projections may not unfold as suggested; a 2020 Bank of England Staff Working Paper "Eight centuries of global real interest rates, wealth returns and broader real growth, and the ‘suprasecular’ decline, 1311–2018" concludes in part:

"The data here suggests that the “historically implied” safe asset provider long-term real rate stands at 1.56% for the year 2018, which would imply that against the backdrop of inflation targets at 2%, nominal advanced economy rates may no longer rise sustainably above 3.5%. Whatever the precise dominant driver – simply extrapolating such long-term historical trends suggests that negative real rates will not just soon constitute a “new normal” – they will continue to fall constantly. By the late 2020s, global short term real rates will have reached permanently negative territory. By the second half of this century, global long-term real rates will have followed."

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The Brookings Institution provides current World Data Lab projections indicating that there are four projected patterns of recoveries. ​Canada is projected to "recover" from the coronavirus perhaps in 2023 or 2024, and that Consumer Spending in North America is down nearly 1% Y/Y and is projected to continue dropping (charts left). Zero or positive growth in spending per capita. This group includes China, Egypt, Vietnam, Taiwan, Bangladesh, and most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Fast recovery in spending per capita: recovery by 2021-2022. These “fast recovers” represent a wide mix of countries, including India, most of Europe, and much of Southeast Asia. Medium recovery in spending per capita: recovery by 2023-2024. This group includes large economies, such as the U.S., Canada, U.K., Australia, Brazil, and most of South America. Slow recovery in spending per capita: recovery completed after 2025. This group includes Mexico, most of the Middle East, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa. The drop in consumption affects employment (chart) especially in service related sectors which is where nearly 80% of Canadians earn their paycheques (Workforce Distribution chart left is from Statista.com). As noted on my Household Debt chart, "The widening spread between total household debt and household mortgages means we are borrowing even more to maintain lifestyle.​" But this trend requires positive cash flow which has been pinched for many Canadian households.

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"Lisbon turning Airbnb-style rentals into homes for key workers." The headline above is from The Independent July 6, 2020 report. European cities are thinking about what their urban centers should look like in a post Covid 19 environment in terms of affordable accommodation and access to services for their front line workers who have been pushed into the suburbs and long commutes by the expansion of Airbnb into the core tourist areas where prior to the global suppression of interest rates, affordable housing used to exist.

​Affordability is the ability for any urban household to be able to rent a dwelling for less than a 25% of its monthly income, or to buy one for less than about three time its yearly income. ​​​The mobility and affordability objectives are tightly related. ​A residential location that only allows access to only a small segment of the job market in less than an hour commuting time has not much value to households, even if it is theoretically affordable.​

​> More than a third of properties in the centre of the city (Lisbon) are currently taken up by holiday lettings.

> Tourist rentals had pushed up (Lisbon) property prices in recent years and driven out essential workers and their families.

> (Lisbon) authorities will offer to pay landlords in return for renting "safe homes" as affordable housing for workers including hospital staff and teachers.

> We want to bring the people who are Lisbon’s lifeblood back to the centre of the city as we make it greener, more sustainable and ultimately, a better place to both live and visit.

> With many more people likely to be permanently working from home, it makes sense for more Lisboetas to swap the suburbs for the city where they can easily access public transport, services and take advantage of festivals and concerts.

> From Melbourne to Paris, the tide is turning against urban sprawl and back to revitalised city centres where residents can reach key services, like doctors, schools and shops all within a 20-minute walk.

> As Lisbon rapidly transformed into a tourist destination over the last decade, the number of Airbnb units skyrocketed — driving up the cost of housing, and pushing longtime residents out of the city center. When 2020 started, many neighborhoods were more than one third short-term housing; in the worst-affected part of town, around 55 percent of residential units had been converted to makeshift hostels and hotels. Then the virus came, and all the rentals dried up. Now Lisbon is taking advantage of that situation, in order to push some of these units back into the long-term housing market. The city government is renting empty apartments directly from property owners, and then turning around to rent them to Portuguese workers and students at subsidized rates.

​> Now Lisbon is taking advantage of that situation, in order to push some of these units back into the long-term housing market. The city government is renting empty apartments directly from property owners, and then turning around to rent them to Portuguese workers and students at subsidized rates.

> Lisbon may take up to 2,000 homes off the short-term market, but could expand further... the new contracts are for at least five years, and no one will be asked to pay more than 30 percent of their monthly income on rent.

> Last year, the Irish government passed legislation strictly regulating Airbnb-style rentals... this year properties entering the long-term rental market increased as much as 64 percent in some neighborhoods in the capital. 

> In Paris, Mayor Anne Hidalgo has promised a referendum on the future of short-term rental properties in the French capital. “There are about 30,000 Airbnb-type rentals in Paris, the task is to get them back.” 

> Since 2016, it has been legal for cities in Spain’s Catalonia region to take over properties that have not had tenants for over two years... in July, the city of Barcelona (the capital of Catalonia) informed the owners of 194 apartments that they better find tenants soon; if not, the government could take them over and turn them into affordable housing.
 
> Per square mile, Barcelona has the most Airbnb properties in Europe and Lisbon is No. 2.

> In Rome, a group of activists and researchers at the LUISS Guido Carlo University is looking to promote the “Barcelona model,” as part of a multi-pronged approach to make Italian cities more democratic and inclusive. The city center feels desolate at the moment, because all the properties dedicated to Airbnb rentals as well as many of the urban homes of the wealthy, who have houses elsewhere, are empty... Airbnb has disrupted the housing supply in Italy; there are almost a half a million units dedicated to this kind of short-term rental and COVID-19 has exposed the problem of urban inequalities even more starkly.

> ​Over the past decade, the app that connects fly-by-night tourists and short-term renters to “cozy” lofts and five-star “experiences” morphed into a gig-economy nightmare for cities like Paris, Amsterdam and Barcelona. 

> (Now) global tourist traps are being slammed shut, and the ecosystem that sprang up around them is falling apart — including Airbnb. Apartments once reserved for well-heeled tourists have seen bookings slump anywhere from 41% to 96%.

> Paris has 100,000 empty homes and 100,000 second homes, according to the mayor’s office, fueling a sense of social injustice. 

> "Short-term rentals have had a disastrous impact on cities’ rental markets,” McGill University’s David Wachsmuth told The Intelligencer last month. Will a post-Covid-19 society really want that back?

> Already, in China, the slow return of tourism is — understandably — skewed towards domestic, not international, trips. If France loses a chunk of its 2 million annual Chinese visitors and their 4 billion euros ($4.4 billion) in associated spending, that’s a rough prospect for rentals.

> How we work, and travel for work, could also change long-term. Lockdowns in Italy and France have already seen irresponsible city-dwelling Northerners descend on family homes and rural towns in the south. They might stay there if working from home turns out to be a durable, safe option as countries ramp up tests and vaccine research.
 
> ​This crisis may be a chance for a more balanced recovery than simply a return to the norms of over-valued, over-crowded and over-polluted cities.

Santa Monica has effectively wiped out 80% of its Airbnb listings​...
Source: Investopedia, March 8, 2020 

Santa Monica has effectively wiped out 80% of its Airbnb listings by instituting the toughest regulations on short-term rentals in the U.S. The southern California city said it was spurred by overall increases in housing prices and dwindling housing supply. The new regulations, which have been effective since June 2015, require anyone putting a listing on Airbnb in Santa Monica to live on the property during the renter’s stay, register for a business license, and collect a 14% occupancy tax from users that will be payable to the city. In 2019, the City of Santa Monica reached an agreement with Airbnb in which the company agreed to remove illegal short-term listings from its website. As of 2019, the city has only 351 short-term rental properties, most of which are listed on Airbnb.

Airbnb's Coronavirus Collapse
TWiT Tech Podcast Network, April 23, 2020

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Thanks to Greg The Analyst's April 22, 2020 blog entry "Why I view this cycle as deflationary, not inflationary." for his unsourced reproduction chart of the "Income Share of Top 1% Relative to Bottom 90%" since 1920 (chart left). I added to the chart mashup the closest comparison I could find to reflect Canada's wealth gap. The two countries track the same trend in income disparity rising from the early 1980's when state mandated interest rate inflation peaked, to now the end of 2Q 2020 when our new Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem said on June 22nd, "Our main concern is to avoid a persistent drop in inflation by helping Canadians get back to work." "avoid a persistent drop in inflation" oh oh... apparently the members of the The Canadian Club of Montreal who are mainly from the business and professional communities addressed by the Governor are not to be exposed to the apparently scary noun... "deflation" I will highlight below the main points of Greg's argument. ​We are indeed beginning to see the elements unfold for another great cycle of deflation, not official yet, but the evidence mounts.

Money Velocity

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Deflation Probability

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​Reopening Canada: 3 stages of recovery

DEPRESSION DEFINITION 
​(✓) = now occurring in various global economic centers.

Depressions are characterized by their length, by abnormally large increases in unemployment (✓), falls in the availability of credit (✓) (often due to some form of banking or financial crisis (✓)), shrinking output (✓) as buyers dry up (✓) and suppliers cut back on production and investment (✓), more bankruptcies (✓) including sovereign debt defaults (✓), significantly reduced amounts of trade and commerce (✓) (especially international trade (✓)), as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations (✓) (often due to currency devaluations (✓)). Price deflation (✓), financial crises (✓), stock market crash (✓), and bank failures (✓) are also common elements of a depression that do not normally occur during a recession. (Wikipedia)

CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE US leveraged loan downgrade ratio hits staggering 43:1 as COVID-19 stalls market S&P Global Market Intelligence JUN 4, 2020

"In their optimistic scenario — where restrictions lift in May and life gets back to normal by June — 9% of leveraged loans would default within a year. If lockdowns are in effect until June and normalcy returns at the end of August, defaults would hit 14% of loans, they said. In the worst case — the virus keeps returning in waves until the middle of next year — UBS sees the rate at 22%." Quote from UBS Investment Bank via Bloomberg/FinancialPost May 2020

​Weak Hands

• "Collateralized loan obligations, the largest investor segment in the $1.2 trillion U.S. leveraged loan asset class, are exceeding their structural limits for lower-rated debt at eye-watering numbers."
• "As a leading indicator, rising downgrades also typically precede a period of increased defaults."
• "The downgrades that have come at breakneck speed are also predominantly at the lower end of the ratings spectrum, changing the composition of the B- cohort significantly."
• "At the lower rung, Morgan Stanley strategist Srikanth Sankaran expects that nearly a fifth of the loan market could transition to CCC as a result."

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​The Looming Bank Collapse - The U.S. financial system could be on the cusp of calamity. This time, we might not be able to save it.
by Frank Partnoy The Atlantic JUL-AUG 2020 Issue

TEXT SNIPPET:
 
Like a CDO, a CLO has multiple layers, which are sold separately. The bottom layer is the riskiest, the top the safest. If just a few of the loans in a CLO default, the bottom layer will suffer a loss and the other layers will remain safe. If the defaults increase, the bottom layer will lose even more, and the pain will start to work its way up the layers. The top layer, however, remains protected: It loses money only after the lower layers have been wiped out.

Despite their obvious resemblance to the villain of the last crash, CLOs have been praised by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for moving the risk of leveraged loans outside the banking system. Like former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, who downplayed the risks posed by subprime mortgages, Powell and Mnuchin have downplayed any trouble CLOs could pose for banks, arguing that the risk is contained within the CLOs themselves.

These sanguine views are hard to square with reality. The Bank for International Settlements estimates that, across the globe, banks held at least $250 billion worth of CLOs at the end of 2018. Last July, one month after Powell declared in a press conference that “the risk isn’t in the banks,” two economists from the Federal Reserve reported that U.S. depository institutions and their holding companies owned more than $110 billion worth of CLOs issued out of the Cayman Islands alone. A more complete picture is hard to come by, in part because banks have been inconsistent about reporting their CLO holdings. The Financial Stability Board, which monitors the global financial system, warned in December that 14 percent of CLOs—more than $100 billion worth—are unaccounted for.

​Read the hole story by Frank Partnoy  at The Atlantic

​Currencies May See Wild Swings if Slow Growth Breaks CLO Market

HOW CAN A GLOBAL SLOWDOWN TRIGGER A CLO COLLAPSE?
As global demand wanes, consumers begin to spend less, business revenue streams dry up and investors pivot away from chasing yields and more toward preserving capital. Corporations that took out these covenant-lite loans – that were then securitized into a CLO – then face mounting pressure as their ability to service their debt is compromised. The probability of an onslaught of defaults then becomes considerably higher.

Furthermore, companies that are on the hook for these loans may attempt to cut corners or lay off employees as a way to trim losses and stave off insolvency. However, in the process, they may end up breaching their covenant(s), consequently giving the lender the right to declare a default on the loan. This in turn could make many of the income-generating tranches in the CLO worthless and bring down the overall value of the security

The CLOs would then shift their position on the balance sheet from assets to liabilities, potentially putting financial institutions outside the regulatory parameters of capital requirements. This may then force them to start selling other assets to compensate for the losses they incurred on the CLOs. Consequently, a selloff iterated across multiple institutions could trigger broad-based panic and hurried liquidation across global financial markets.

HOW WOULD FX MARKETS RESPOND TO A CLO UNRAVELING?
In the event of a downturn, which is further exacerbated by a CLO collapse, anti-risk assets like the US Dollar, Japanese Yen and US Treasuries would likely gain at the expense of cycle-sensitive currencies like the Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Cycle-sensitive commodities like oil – and currencies that frequently track its movement like the Canadian Dollar, Russian Ruble and Norwegian Krone – may also suffer.

While many central banks could lower rates to combat the downturn, the exact simulative effect of further cuts may not be sufficiently conducive in restoring liquidity and confidence. Other central banks with rates at or below zero like the ECB and Riksbank may have to resort to unconventional monetary measures, though even those are sometimes not effective enough to raise inflation and stave off a slowdown.

CLOs may not be the next trigger for a recession, but they could exacerbate an economic downturn. Furthermore, the average recovery rates for defaulted loans have fallen to 69 percent from the pre-crisis levels of 82 percent. Indirectly-connected players like banks that lend to firms that are holding these instruments or have exposure to them could be at risk.

The exact extent of the CLO web remains unknown. However, what the 2008 financial crisis taught the world is that highly integrated markets are efficient but also incredibly vulnerable. This then risks an element of contagion whereby a system-wide disruption could occur. A web of interconnectedness is often welcome by all – that is, until along comes a spider.

Read the Full Report with Charts Here by Dimitri Zabelin Analyst, MAR 2019

The junk debt that tanked the economy? It’s back in a big way.
The Washington Post JUL 2018

Earlier this year (2018), after complaints from banks and dealmakers reached sympathetic ears in the Trump administration, the newly installed chairman of the Federal Reserve and the Comptroller of the Currency Office declared that previous “guidance” against lending to companies whose debt exceeded six times their annual cash flow should not be taken as a hard and fast rule.

The CLO market got an even bigger boost this year when an appeals court in Washington struck down a regulation issued under the Dodd-Frank financial regulation law that required all securitizers — the firms that bundle loans of any kind and sell pieces of the packages to investors — to retain 5 percent of a deal.

Michael Barr, a professor of law and public policy at the University of Michigan who served as point man on the financial reform effort for the Treasury in the Obama administration said, “we have now re-created the condition that led to the last crisis by making it easier to aggregate loans that are not good for investors.”

The three judges who signed on to that opinion were all appointed by Republican presidents, all have a long track record of skepticism toward regulation and regulators, and all have a long association with the conservative Federalist Society. 

THE BUYOUT OF AMERICA by Josh Kosman

Marquee private equity firms such as Blackstone Group, Carlyle Group, and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, have grown bigger and more powerful than ever. They have also become the nation’s largest employers through the businesses they own. Journalist Josh Kosman explores private equity’s explosive growth and shows how its barons wring profits at the expense of the long-term health of their companies.

He also explores the links between the private equity elite and Washington power players, who have helped them escape government scrutiny. The result is a timely book with an important warning for us all, which unfortunately in 2020 is starting to play out. JoshKosman.com

​And in Canada

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Covid-19 MAR 27, 2020 The incubation period (time from exposure to the development of symptoms) of the virus is estimated to be between 2 and 14 days. A very long incubation period could reflect a double exposure. 24 days represented an outlier observation that must be taken into consideration in the context of the main finding of the World Health Organization study. CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

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The February housing data for Calgary shows that the average price of a condo is trading at prices from nearly 15 years ago and two and a half years before the July 2008 WTI Crude Oil peak. ​The Canadian Federation of Independent Business released their March 2020 "Business Barometer" suit of charts: ​"The index now stands at a record low 30.8, well under the previous lows near 39 recorded in both the 2008 and 1990 recessions. The scale of the negative perspectives appear pretty consistent across industry groupings..." Earlier this year, Jason Kirby via Macleans.ca released their 6th annual "Most important Canadian economic charts to watch in 2020." Note the Calgary trend changes unfolding since February 8, 2016 when WTI Crude Oil prices hit USD$28.49. CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

Alberta’s Double-Dip Recession?
"Oil producing provinces have faced a difficult five years. Low oil prices cut into revenue, investment, employment, wages, and overall economic activity. Government budgets are increasingly strained, unemployment is stubbornly high, social assistance enrollment is at record highs, and the end is not yet in sight. In fact, a second recession might (just might) be in Alberta’s future. As this graph illustrates, my index of monthly economic activity in Alberta has been negative for most of 2019 – signalling a possibly contracting Alberta economy. A worsening economy in Alberta affects employment and growth throughout Canada, but the ripples go far beyond the dollars and cents. Rising frustration and disappointment are increasingly directed at perceived failures of the federal government and Alberta politicians are happy to oblige. A second recession may exacerbate these tensions and further strain Canada’s confederation. For these reasons, and more, this indicator will be one to watch in 2020." Chart above thanks to Trevor Tombe, associate professor of economics, University of Calgary and research fellow at The School of Public Policy.

CANADIAN EMPLOYMENT RATES
in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, Montreal and their Provinces
See also my previous posts with charts related to DEFLATION and what to expect:
Asset Prices Drop
Investment Spending Drops
The Savings Rate Rises
Debt Delinquencies Rise
The Credit Boom Turns to Bust 

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ITEM: "People are hitting the wall’:
Delinquency rate highest since 2012  GlobalNews.ca MAR 5, 2020

"Canada’s so-called 90+ day delinquency rate on non-mortgage payments climbed to 1.2 per cent in the final three months of 2019, an 11 per cent jump compared with the same period in 2018, Equifax data shows... Delinquency rates had been “marching higher” for much of 2019 and will likely keep going up in 2020... The trend is strongest in British Columbia, Ontario and Alberta, where delinquencies are now back above their 2016 level."

Canada sees rising numbers of consumers defaulting on their debts even amid a healthy economy and solid job market. Consumer insolvencies were up more than 10 per cent in January 2020 compared to the same month in 2019, according to the latest figures from the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy.

Scott Terrio, manager of consumer insolvency for Hoyes, Michalos Licensed Insolvency Trustees said "much of the debt he sees from clients filing for insolvency is much older than two years... "We’ve run up debt for most of a decade... Some borrowers are simply getting to the end of the runway... That may be especially true among renters, who, according to Terrio, made up more than 90 per cent of debtors who filed for insolvency with Hoyes Michalos over the last couple of years... While sky-high home prices allow many homeowners in expensive cities to keep borrowing against their home equity, renters have fewer options to keep borrowing and consolidate debt."

“Outside of mortgages, we have seen a significant pullback in demand for credit,” Johnston noted. Consumers, Terrio said, are “entering a period here of self-policing.”

ie: DEBT REVULSION

​"Deflationary Spiral" - The Khan Academy
"EMPLOYMENT DRIVES DEMAND"

​TEXT FROM VIDEO ABOVE Created by Sal Khan: So in a normal economy we know that employment will drive overall demand. If we have high employment or low unemployment, then people are going to have more jobs, and they're going to have higher wages, and that will have higher demand. Or if the other way goes around, if they lose their jobs, demand is going to go down, wages will start to go down, and people aren't going to have money in their pockets. So employment drives demand. And we can view the demand-- and I'm making a huge simplification here-- demand will drive production. Or maybe we could think of it as supply. It'll drive supply, and it can also be a driver of price. And of course, there is a little bit of a negative feedback loop for both of these things. If the demand is high and the price goes high, that might produce a little bit of negative feedback on the demand. Instead of an arrow, this line here means negative feedback. I'll put a little negative sign here. And let's say the demand is high and then the supply goes high. Well actually, the supply going high would drive the price going down. So maybe I should draw a negative feedback like here. High supply would mean lower price. But that's not what I want to focus on in that video. And we could keep adding more lines here. But this is roughly simple take on it. But the general idea is supply and price will then drive corporate profits, or just profits in general, even for an individual business owner. And then profits are going to drive employment.

Now, let's imagine a scenario. We are in a bad economy, maybe a depression-like economy. So in that situation, you could start really at any point in this circle. I'll just start at employment. So let's say employment is really low. That's going to make demand really low. And if demand is really low, then supply is going to go down, and price is going to go down. And then that's going to make profits go down. And that's going to make employment even lower. And so what we find ourselves in this kind of recessionary or depression area environment, this would be called a deflationary spiral. And it's a spiral because a bad economy is driving lower prices, which is in turn driving a bad economy. And to make matters worse, if this continues long enough, or if these price declines are severe enough, you could imagine people saying, look, I have this dollar in my pocket. I'm not going to spend this dollar because, one, I might lose my job at any moment, and I know that that dollar is becoming more powerful, that I can buy more every minute that I wait. So as the price goes down, so as all of this scary stuff happens-- so the employment is going down, profits are going down, prices going down-- this makes people not hoard goods the way that they would do in an inflationary spiral. But it makes them hoard money.

​And why it's ultra scary for central bankers or for governments is they start to not have as much control over the economy. They can't just run the printing press and try to stimulate the economy in this situation, because if they did people are so conservative right now-- You could imagine maybe a depression is going on for years and years and years. And let's say that they take some type of a helicopter-- And this isn't how you actually distribute money to the money supply, but it's just to show an extreme example. So they take a helicopter, and they start dumping cash on people. They print cash, and they start dumping it on people. So every man, woman, and child in the country gets a $10 bill. Well, if people are really scared and really afraid, they're just going to take that $10 bill and stuff it into their mattress, and it's not going to change anything. That dollar isn't going to actually enter into the money supply. The velocity on it will be 0." 

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Today we see fear in the headlines. Fear in the Party of Trump (Bolton's book is leaked), fear in the contagion pipeline ("At this time, it’s unclear how easily or sustainably this virus [Coronavirus] is spreading between people...” the CDC says. [2700 confirmed case and 60 million Chinese residents in lockdown provinces] via CNN JAN 27th) and fear in the stock market indexes (1st chart left). The second chart to the left shows the "un-growth" of Canadian Labour Productivity since the peak in the 1980's punctuated by two major global stock market selloffs (fear). In OCT 1987 "Black Monday", every major world market experienced a decline. Measured in USD, 8 declined by 20-29%, 3 by 30-39%, 3 by more than 40%. In OCT 2007 through MAR 2009 (17 months) during the Global Financial SubPrime collapse, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 53%. ​

​Chuck Schumer speaks following leak of Bolton book excerpt

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“Commenting on the flash PMI data, Tim Moore, Economics Associate Director at IHS Markit said: “August’s survey data provides a clear signal that (U.S.) economic growth has continued to soften in the third quarter. The PMIs for manufacturing and services remain much weaker than at the beginning of 2019 and collectively point to annualized GDP growth of around 1.5%. “The most concerning aspect of the latest data is a slowdown in new business growth to its weakest in a decade, driven by a sharp loss of momentum across the service sector. Survey respondents commented on a headwind from subdued corporate spending as softer growth expectations at home and internationally encouraged tighter budget setting. “Manufacturing companies continued to feel the impact of slowing global economic conditions, with new export sales falling at the fastest pace since August 2009. “Business expectations for the year ahead became more gloomy in August and remain the lowest since comparable data were first available in 2012. The continued slide in corporate growth projections suggests that firms may exert greater caution in relation to spending, investment and staff hiring during the coming months.” Tim Moore Economics Associate Director at IHS Markit

​Meanwhile Canadian Net Trade has been negative
in the last 10 out of 11 quarterly prints (July 2019 data)

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While we wait for the July Canadian housing data to trickle out, let's return to Japan and their housing price experience after nearly 20 years of ZIRP and NIRP. I have posted charts about Japan since 2012 to illustrate the folly of global central banks and their monetary policies of instituting ZIRP & NIRP to stimulate inflation > consumption > production, the by-product of which, has been the manic search for yields as the underlying asset class values became stretched to perfection under pressure from the FOMO crowd. Instead of using fiscal policy which requires long term planning and socially cohesive agreements directed towards production and well being, the quarterly knob twiddling monetary policy has in part, along with the rise of a digitized global financial network, unleashed "megabyte" money laundering which the UNODC  estimates at 2-5% of global GDP per year. It has also crushed the incentive to save for a future funding of investment into productive assets.   The Household Saving Rate in Canada has decreased to 1.1% in the first quarter of 2019. ​​

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​Commodity Super Cycle - 10 Years into the Bear

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Here is a chart I published in a 2012 post "What Do You Do During a Housing Bust". The answer is "save". ​ If the CRB chart above has correctly identified a cyclical swing between bull and bear commodity production, then we should expect another "lost decade" of balance sheet repair especially in the over-speculated and now depreciating housing asset markets of Canada.

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The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) defines a household as being in “core housing need” if it “falls below at least one of the adequacy, affordability or suitability standards and would have to spend 30% or more of its total before-tax income to pay the median rent of alternative local housing that is acceptable (meets all three housing standards).” thecanadianencyclopedia.ca

"estimated that approximately 35,000 Canadians experience homelessness on any given night, and at least 235,000 Canadians are homeless in any given year."​ AND  According to the Canadian Observatory on Homelessness, mass homelessness in Canada emerged around this time (1987 Conservatives) as a result of government cutbacks to social housing and related programs starting in 1984 (Conservatives). In 1993 (Liberals), federal spending on the construction of new social housing came to an end. In 1996 (Liberals) the federal government transferred responsibility for most existing federal low-income social housing to the provinces.

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​Conclusion from Statistics Canada’s Insights on Canadian Society.

Using data from the 2016 SFS, this study looked at the association between the debt-to-asset and debt-to-income ratios and financial distress, while controlling for various socioeconomic characteristics. Three financial distress indicators were considered—missing non-mortgage payments, missing mortgage payments and taking out a payday loan.

The varied results call for a nuanced interpretation. The first point to note is that the debt-to-asset ratio tells a more consistent story than the debt-to-income ratio. Across all three distress indicators, people in the highest debt-to-asset groups have a higher probability of reporting distress. However, after controlling for other factors, the debt-to-income ratio is not associated with the measures of financial distress since the results are not statistically significant.

The debt-to-asset ratio might be a more predictive indicator because debtors can often sell assets to make debt payments, even if they do not have the income to make payments. Alternatively, those who own homes often have access to home equity lines of credit. These results are important because they suggest that the debt-to-asset ratio is a better indicator of financial precariousness than the debt-to-income ratio.

Additionally, some demographic groups face relatively higher probabilities of reporting financial distress, including lone-parent families, and “other” family types. Conversely, families whose major income earner had a university degree, were less likely to be in financial distress. Similarly, homeowners with or without a mortgage were less likely to miss payments or take out payday loans.

Financial distress has many dimensions and can take multiple forms. Future measurement should provide additional details, such as the frequency at which specific financial services are used when under financial duress. More research will be needed to better comprehend the extent to which Canadians are facing financial difficulties.

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​As Cities Grow, So Do the Numbers of Homeless Joseph Chamie, July 13, 2017 Homelessness is a mark of failure for communities in providing basic security. Based on national reports, about 2 percent of the world’s population may be homeless. Another 20 percent lacks adequate housing, reports demographer Joseph Chamie. Such statistics come with a caveat. Obtaining accurate numbers is difficult, mostly due to wild variations in definitions around the globe. Also, measuring homelessness is costly: Cities may under-count due to embarrassment while individuals avoid officials due to shame and fear of arrest and harassment. Reasons for homelessness include “shortages of affordable housing, privatization of civic services, investment speculation in housing, unplanned and rapid urbanization, as well as poverty, unemployment and family breakdown,” Chamie explains. “Also contributing is a lack of services and facilities for those suffering from mental illness, alcoholism or substance abuse and displacement caused by conflicts, natural disasters and government housing policies.” Even people with jobs can struggle to keep homes. As experts debate whether the issue can be resolved or not, some governments offer support programs while others do what they can to chase the homeless off to other locales. – YaleGlobal

Prominent Canadian economist David Rosenberg is warning that record household debt levels in the country will hinder economic growth...
​(ie: your income, your cash flow, your ability to service your debt)