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Peak Oil Says BP

12/6/2020

 
BP estimates Peak Oil in 2019
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
BP estimates oil demand will drop with behavior changes
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
BP noted that Electric Vehicle sales outperformed ICE
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
BP PLC (British Petroleum), one the seven oil and gas "supermajors" (Wikipedia) has released its 2020 oil demand projections and in February 2020 announced a new purpose – "to reimagine energy for people and our planet... ​​​​by a new ambition, to be a net-zero company by 2050 or sooner and to help get the world to net zero." (Full 2020 81 page report here)

Bloomberg picked up the story "Peak Oil is Suddenly Upon Us" and republished some of the detail November 30th; I mashed up a few charts.

​Bloomberg made the observation that:
The list of energy analysts who now foresee a peak in oil demand keeps growing. It includes Norway’s state-owned oil company Equinor (peaking around 2027-28), Norwegian energy researcher Rystad Energy (2028), French oil major Total SA (2030), consulting firm McKinsey (2033), clean-energy research group BloombergNEF (2035), and energy-industry advisors Wood Mackenzie (2035). The exporting nations of OPEC put the peak in 2040 while acknowledging that its new forecast might still prove too optimistic for oil. Notable exceptions include the International Energy Agency, which sees demand “plateauing” but not quite peaking...
On December 3rd, Bloomberg published "Germany’s Electric-Car Market Is Poised to Overtake California’s" and noted that:
Europe is taking unprecedented steps to phase out gasoline and diesel cars, with U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson banning sales of cars that lack a plug from 2030. Germany last month said it will extend cash bonuses for purchasing EVs until 2025, expand the country’s charging network and make payments for topping up batteries easier. California will phase out sales of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035...

​A highlight from the International Energy Agency November 2020 Fuel Report projects that "Renewables are set to lead the global electricity sector."
​Cost reductions and sustained policy support are expected to drive strong renewables growth beyond 2022. Despite the challenges emerging from the Covid crisis, the fundamentals of renewable energy expansion have not changed. Solar PV and onshore wind are already the cheapest ways of adding new electricity-generating plants in most countries today. In countries where good resources and cheap financing are available, wind and solar PV plants will challenge existing fossil fuel plants. Solar projects now offer some of the lowest-cost electricity in history. Overall, renewables are set to account for 95% of the net increase in global power capacity through 2025.

Total installed wind and solar PV capacity is on course to surpass natural gas in 2023 and coal in 2024. Solar PV alone accounts for 60% of all renewable capacity additions through 2025, and wind provides another 30%. Driven by further cost declines, annual offshore wind additions are set to surge, accounting for one-fifth of the total wind annual market in 2025. Offshore’s growth moves beyond Europe to new markets such as China and the United States where ample potential remains. The rapid growth of variable renewables around the world calls for increased policy attention to ensure they are securely and cost-effectively integrated into electricity systems.

​​BloombergNEF Presentation: New Energy Outlook 2020

Seb Hebnest, Chief Economist at BloombergNEF gives a presentation about the outlook for renewable energies in 2020 at the Bloomberg Sustainable Business Summit Global virtual event. NOV 30, 2020


​​Driven by the Power of the Sun

​At Aptera, we’re driving into the future with a 1,000-mile range that gives you the freedom to do more with less impact on the planet. Aptera is the first electric/ solar vehicle that requires no charging for most daily use.  Thanks to the power of the sun, the dream of driving for more miles with less carbon, materials, and energy from the grid is now a reality. (Aptera website)


​QuantumScape is building a better electric car battery that it says charges to 80% in 15 minutes (CNBC) DEC 8, 2020

  • Volkswagen-backed QuantumScape is building a solid-state lithium metal battery for electric vehicles that it says will be safer and better than the cells on the market today.
  • In extensive testing, QuantumScape found that its batteries should allow a car to charge to 80% of its full capacity in about 15 minutes.
  • QuantumScape’s board includes ex-Tesla CTO JB Straubel and SolarCity CFO Brad Buss, along side Volkswagen execs, Juergen Leohold and Frank Blome, among others.
    ​

QuantumScape isn’t alone in its quest to build a better battery. Ultimately, the company will compete with stalwart battery manufacturers like CATL and BYD in China, Panasonic, LG, Samsung and others that manufacture lithium ion battery cells. It will also compete against Tesla, which has designed and started producing some of its own cells, and other companies building solid-state batteries, like Solid Power and Toyota. ​(CNBC) DEC 8, 2020

Big Wind

10/30/2019

 
Wind Power Canada
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
While we wait for the October real estate data to start coming out later this week, BNN yesterday reported on Warren Buffett's plan to invest in a new Alberta Wind Farm. "The Rattlesnake Ridge Wind Project" will be located southwest of Medicine Hat and produce enough energy to supply the equivalent of 79,000 homes. Apparently demand is bankable because an "unnamed large Canadian corporate customer has signed a long-term power purchase agreement for the majority of the Rattlesnake Ridge energy output..." The Government of Canada chart mashup shows Alberta to be the 3rd largest renewable energy supplier via wind energy in Canada, and BNN goes on to report that Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway Energy "...also owns AltaLink, the regulated transmission company which supplies electricity to more than 85 per cent of the Alberta population."


​Warren Buffett's firm invests $200M in Alberta wind project
Bill Christensen, V.P. corporate development at BHE Canada, discusses an Alberta wind farm that the company has invested in. BNN Bloomberg OCT 29, 2019


​MORE RENEWABLE ENERGY CHARTS AT Natural Resources Canada
​


AND SOME KEY DATA
  • Wind and solar energy are the fastest growing sources of electricity in Canada.
  • In 2017, Canada obtained 17.3% of its energy supply from renewable sources. For comparison, OECD countries, on average, got 10.2% of their energy supply from renewables sources, while the world average was 13.4%.
  • In 2017, hydro accounted for 67.1% of Canada’s total renewable energy use, followed by solid biomass at 23.1%, wind at 5.3%, ethanol at 1.7%, municipal waste and landfill gas at 1.2%, solar at 0.6%.
  • The installed capacity of wind power has grown from 444 megawatts in 2004 to 12,817 megawatts in 2018. The amount of annual new capacity peaked in 2014 with 1,891 megawatts. In 2018, 578 megawatts were added.
  • In 2018, there were 246 wind farms in Canada with at least 1 megawatt of capacity. There are 17 wind farms with at least 150 megawatts. The largest wind farm is Lac Alfred with 300 megawatts.


​Neil Young - Four Strong Winds (Live at Farm Aid 1993)
​

Federal Election 2019

10/21/2019

 
In the late 1950's and early 1960's, 79% of us voted.

In the last federal election, only 68% of us voted. 

Your future is in the count; get out and vote.
​
HISTORICAL VOTING DATA 1867-2015
UPDATE OCT 22: Only 66% of us voted
The chart below comes from Environmental Defence, a leading Canadian advocacy organization "that works with government, industry and individuals to defend clean water, a safe climate and healthy communities."
Canadian oil isn’t clean oil
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

Their October 10, 2019 piece "The oil lobby is lying. Canadian oil isn’t clean oil." documents that "46 countries produced oil with a lower per barrel carbon footprint than Canada. Only three countries were worse: Algeria, Venezuela, and Cameroon. We’re 47th out of 50 countries."
​
Barrow Atmospheric Baseline
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
Marine Extinction
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
As the report concludes in part:

​"
Governments must stop spending financial and political capital to further the interests of one industry whose aspirations will literally devastate the planet, at the expense of all of us."

NEWS ITEMS:
  • OCT 2019 CNN: Russian scientists say they've found the highest-ever 'flares' of methane in Arctic waters
  • OCT 2019 TruthOut.org: ExxonMobil Is Still Bankrolling Climate Science Deniers
  • SEP 2019 CBC News: How 'organized climate change denial' shapes public opinion on global warming.
  • FEB 2019 University of Washington: Early spring rain boosts methane from thawing permafrost by 30 percent
  • JAN 2019 Scientific American: Greenland Has Yet Another Methane Leak
  • JUN 2018 American Geophysical Union: Very Strong Atmospheric Methane Growth in the 4 Years 2014–2017
  • SEP 2016 Engineering & Technology Magazine: Arctic methane levels reach new heights.

Methane: The Arctic's hidden climate threat.
Natalia Shakhova's latest paper. Jun 23, 2019​

​Even with existing levels of warming and melting of the Arctic region, submarine methane releases linked to clathrate breakdown have been discovered,[32] and demonstrated to be leaking into the atmosphere.[5][34][35][36] A 2011 Russian survey off the East Siberian coast found plumes wider than one kilometer releasing methane directly into the atmosphere.[32] According to monitoring carried out in 2003/2004 by Shakhova et al., the surface layer of shelf water in the East Siberian Sea and Laptev Sea was supersaturated up to 2500% relative to then present average atmospheric methane content of 1.85 ppm. Anomalously high concentrations (up to 154 nM or 4400% supersaturation) of dissolved methane in the bottom layer of shelf water suggest that the bottom layer is somehow affected by near-bottom sources. Considering the possible formation mechanisms of such plumes, their studies indicated thermoabrasion and the effects of shallow gas or gas hydrates release.[4] Wikipedia Arctic Methane Emissions Page


New Arctic lakes could soon be a major source of atmospheric methane. August 20, 2018​

For centuries, a massive store of carbon has been locked underground in the Arctic's permanently frozen soil known as permafrost. As Earth's climate continues to warm, that carbon has begun to leach into the atmosphere, the result of microbes waking up and digesting once-frozen organic materials. A new NASA-funded study focuses on a mechanism that could accelerate the release of this atmospheric carbon, the result of thermokarst lakes. These lakes form when thawing permafrost causes the ground to slump, creating a depression that collects rain and snowmelt and perpetuates a cycle of further permafrost thaw. NASA August 2018

Seasonal Oil FEAR

5/28/2019

 
WTI Oil in May 2019
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

TSX Energy vs TSX Real Estate
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

​While we wait for the June real estate stats to come out, let's look at the relationship between WTI Oil prices and real estate in Canada.

The top chart shows the WTI oil prices dropping into month end lows and as the inset seasonal chart shows, the drop is happening when the price variability is at one of the four low points in the year which suggests this year may not be much different.

Now look at the Canadian scene via the TSX cash markets in the chart below. As the chart plots since 2015 demonstrate, when the energy sector price drops so does the real estate sector.

These cash markets react quickly to changes "on the ground" and are not restricted by the handicap of finding a buyer. 

The relationship between oil prices and real estate are clearly seen in the Calgary housing chart with its total sales plot and the TSX Energy plot overlays, both of which have been descending since 2013 while the energy plot itself has been dropping since the July 2008 peak. It also shows up on my chart of TSX indexes for Energy, Real Estate, Financial Services and Gold... and gold is maybe leading the way for another leg down.

Gold heading down makes sense since the U.S. Dollar (my chart of Canadian real estate in USD)  has been rising since 3Q 2017 and a high USD/CAD ratio can quickly unwind marketplace sentiment when it comes to a speculative commodity which real estate has been transformed into with the global suppression of leverage costs.  
​

​Oil Breaks Down: Should Stock Market Bulls Be Worried?

Chris Kimble Crude Oil Chart
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
From CHRIS KIMBLE, technical market analyst:

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an article about crude oil’s recent correlation to the S&P 500 (stock market) and that its initial move lower may be sending a bearish signal to stocks. Since then, crude oil has fallen sharply through its up-trend line, sending a bearish message to Oil bulls.

Is the S&P 500 the next to fall?

Below is an updated chart of Crude Oil showing the multi-month downtrend (1), and the ultimate break down through its near term up-trend line (2).

More importantly, from a pattern perspective, Crude Oil is putting in a large weekly reversal bar (bearish). This warrants watching as Crude Oil and the stock market remain highly correlated since their peak in October. Stay tuned!

Thanks to Chris Kimble for the chart above; get a FREE TRIAL to his work.

Green New Deal

3/30/2019

 
U.S. Energy Production
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
While we wait for the March 2019 housing data the IEA notes that CO2 emissions have more than doubled since the early seventies and increased by around 40% since 2000 and they rose by 1.7% in 2018. ​
​
​​The above chart from the IEA shows that the United States is projected to provide 70% of the increase in global oil supply over next five years. And below are maps of Vancouver's supply of electric vehicle chargers compared to Amsterdam's. 
​
EV chargers Vancouver
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
The competing forces are energized and heating up in the forthcoming U.S. election cycle.

Chris Hayes All In with AOC
The Green New Deal March 29, 2019
​


​Top 10 Climate Change Myths - April 2018
Peter Hadfield (Youtube handle "potholer54")
a British freelance journalist author, geologist
​


The impact of exposure to air pollution
on cognitive performance

Over 92 per cent of the world’s population are continually breathing in unsafe air, which has led air pollution to be designated a public health crisis. 

Conclusions
This paper estimates the contemporaneous and cumulative impacts of air pollution on cognition by matching the scores of verbal and math tests given to people age 10 and above in a nationally representative survey with local air quality data according to the exact dates and locations of the interviews.

​We find that accumulative exposure to air pollution impedes verbal test scores. As people age, the negative effect becomes more pronounced, especially for men. The gender gap is particularly large for the less educated.

Our findings about the damaging effect of air pollution on cognition, particularly on the aging brain, imply that the indirect effect on social welfare could be much larger than previously thought. A narrow focus on the negative effect on health may underestimate the total cost of air pollution.


Full Report from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, September 2018

Commodity Super Cycle

10/24/2018

 
Commodity Super Cycle
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
As I have been pointing out on my chart of TSX INDEXES for Energy, Real Estate, Financial Services, Gold and the Bank of Canada Commodities in $CAD, that...
...the Thompson Reuters CRB chart shows that global commodities measured in USD has been dropping since 2008, although recently since September (2018), there has been a near term rally in commodities... BUT

...since Oct 3, 2018, the Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Index has been coiling down. 

On my Twitter Feed from @hks55 came their chart suggesting that the commodity super cycle is poised for another leg down due to China's slowdown in credit creation that had spurred the commodity boom as Kyle Bass illustrates in this comparison between Chinese credit creation and their GDP (the link includes the 41 second video).
China Credit Creation to GDP
CLICK TO GO TO ORIGINAL POST
Picture
CLICK TO GO TO ORIGINAL POST

China’s Slower Credit Growth
Underscores Worries Over Economy
​Bloomberg, Aug 2018
​

Chinese Central Bank Financing
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

Oil-O-Nomics

3/9/2017

 
Slippery Oil WTIC
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
It's a big day in the Oil Markets as the price of crude slips below the sentiment price of US$50 the list is growing of oil majors who are withdrawing from further investment in Alberta. 

Also yields in the bond markets are continuing their rising trend; ie: the cost to finance is rising. 
​
  • MAR 9/17 Lower oil prices have the potential to take down the stock market Market Watch
  • MAR 9/17 Energy Credit Risk Soars As Crude Carnage Continues Zero Hedge
  • MAR 9/17 U.S. Solar Market Has Record-Breaking Year, Total Market Poised to Triple in Next Five Years SEIA Org
  • MAR 9/17 Canadian crude just got a lot more Canadian as another global giant bails on the oilsands Financial Post
  • MAR 8/17 World Doubled Its Solar Power Capacity in 2016 Futurism
  • FEB 26/17 With Shale Oil Production Like This, Who Needs Trump? Bloomberg
  • FEB 22/17 Exxon will leave 3.6-billion barrels of tar sands oil in the ground Environmental Defense
  • FEB 14/17 Don't Hold Your Breath For $70 Oil Prices Forbes
  • JAN 15/17 Future of the oilsands: the good, the bad and the ugly CBC News
  • DEC 14/16 Norwegian giant pulls out of Alberta's oilsands National Observer
  • APR 21/16 Kurzweil predicts solar industry dominance in 12 years Electrek

​The first bullet point above should concern the Canadian real estate markets. If a stock market correction gets sparked, the combination of rising interest rates and falling equity values should spook the real estate bull. Mortgage term renewals will go up in price and the bank of mom and dad will reconsider the risk of the rising cost of money. Parents, especially retirement aged or close to it, will not be too eager to take on more debt and purchasers of any age will have to consider timing as an investment criteria rather than buying anything with a front door for fear of missing out as is happening in Toronto. Timing is difficult, but lenders would become more insistent on basic risk assessment fundamentals such as the Income Approach to valuation instead of a rubber stamp and a drive-by appraisal. 

Sentiment change is an investment killer and in Canada it would not take much to gather momentum as evidenced in my ongoing Federal Direct Investment plot which has been negative for almost 20 years, and which widened dramatically in 2015. Capital flows are net positive going out of Canada because investors want better returns which is why the oil majors are leaving Alberta for less regulatory and lower cost of production environments.

A March 2000 stock market correction event would lend credence to my February 22, 2017 post Need For Speed which posits that a housing correction could unfold in a much shorter time span than what Harry Dent has in mind especially with Trump-O-Nomics in the house.
​

Al Gore on the Solar Revolution - TED Talk Clip 1.50 min
2 solar home systems sold every minute in Bangladesh

Zombie Real Estate

10/31/2016

 
Zombie House Vancouver
CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE
Zombie real estate in Vancouver BC is a problem. The owners have placed a high value on keeping them empty when vacancy rates are at historical lows. See the Beautiful Empty Homes  Vancouver archive. ​In March 2016, theGeorgia Straight reported some 10,000 condos were vacant. The city now wants to tax the owners between a ½% and 2% of the assessed value; CBC News Sept 14, 2016.
As I argued recently in July in Part III of "Death & Taxes" if we all leased our land from the state (ourselves) and were left with only the market rates for the improvements that sit upon the land, housing would be affordable. Owners of the physical improvement of a dwelling, a factory or hospital would not be subject to wild swings in land value. The cost of servicing the land with utilities would be paid for by long term leases. Zoning could be amended when a change in land use was required. The stigma of renting would relax if we all were tenants in common.

As it is now with the state playing monkey business with interest rates (ZIRP and NIRP) and removing credit risk from a lender's balance sheet (CMHC) and reacting with "supra" taxes layered upon individuals deemed to be distorting the market, we end up with more complexity, uncertainty and unproductive investment.

Land management should not be in the hands of short term profiteers. There are alternatives. Land in the Fiji Islands is managed through three complementary systems. Leased land covers 90% of their territory (83% "Native Land", 7% "Crown Land") and 10% of the land is "Freehold". Source

If land costs were built on productivity incentives and protected from the boom and bust of demographic pressure, urban planning departments could create longer term strategies and developers could be more productive on the improvement side of land development. But with very high land costs, the market forces us to build to the minimum of efficiency standards and the maximum of financial rewards.

The crappy little toaster that you call an electric baseboard heater inside an inefficient envelope is indeed just a heat transferring conduit. The condo boom is a commodity arbitrage not an affordable housing plan. (The Condo Game, CBC Doc Zone, January 2015) 


​The Democratization of Production
​Be lazy like a fox. WikiHouse

WikiHouse
CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE


​Tesla's Powerwall 2 and Solar Roof Launch

The sun provides more than enough energy in just one hour to supply our planet’s energy needs for an entire year. Your home can capture this free, abundant energy source through rooftop solar tiles, turning sunlight into electricity for immediate use or storage in a Powerwall battery. Tesla, October 28, 2016

Big Oil Big Debt Big Solar

8/25/2016

 
"Some of the world’s largest energy companies are saddled with their highest debt levels..." Wall Street Journal Aug 24, 2016
Big Oil Net Debt to Equity
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
Oil Stock Inventory
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

Grim expense report: Alberta's debt soars to $10.9 billion
​CTV NEWS August 24, 2016 

MEANWHILE: Tesla Master Plan Part Deux July 20, 2016
The Grand Opening of the Tesla Gigafactory 
Building the world’s largest battery factory
to accelerate a sustainable energy future. July 30, 2016


ITEM: The falling costs of US solar power, in 7 charts
Vox Energy & Environment August 24, 2016

ITEM: 7 Reasons Cheap Oil Can't Stop Renewables Now
Renewable Energy World January 2015

Energy Bar

5/2/2016

 
Commodities 1980-2016 & High Yield Defaults
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
While we wait for the April real estate data to dribble in, let's look at the commodity sector that peaked in 2011 and is now threatening to break a major uptrend channel and possibly retest the 2006 lows; a time when the Yield Curve inverted and soon after the BoC and U.S. Fed etal went on a ZIRP to NIRP bender in an effort to spark inflation. Clearly low rates have not produced CPI inflation but a speculative frenzy for Yield.

​The top panel in the mashup above is the Thomson Reuters Commodity Index chart since the 1980's provided by Kimble Charting Solutions. The commodity index is made up of 18% Energy, 24% Metals, 29% Softs and 29% Agriculture.

​The bottom panel is from ZeroHedge and their post underscores that energy junk bonds are at an all time default rate high.
...the energy high-yield default has soared to a record 13% rate, surpassing the 9.7% mark set in 1999, according to Fitch Ratings.
​"...energy companies now account for approximately 20 percent of the junk bond market." Michael Snyder, Global Research, December 2014
​
AND THIS from Bloomberg May 1, 2016 Saudi Arabia's determination to keep pumping more oil into global markets brings to mind its former oil minister Sheikh Yamani, who said back in 2000 that the Stone Age did not end for a lack of stones, and the oil age will not end for a lack of oil.Those working for him at the time, interpreted this as a warning to OPEC about the pursuit of high oil prices: namely, that it would just speed up the development of alternative technologies and drive away customers, leaving oil sitting beneath the ground without buyers.Sixteen years later, the kingdom's leaders seem to have heeded his warning. Both Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and oil minister Ali al-Naimi have said they will no longer subsidize high-cost oil production by limiting supply. If there's oil to be left under the ground, they're determined it won't be Saudi Arabia's.
Electric Vehicle Battery Cost Decline
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

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    "Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement; and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana Vol. I, Reason in Common Sense​​
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