Take a look at GM Cruise's employment opportunity page. At this posting date, GM is looking for:
Engineering - Autonomous Vehicle Hardware & Software +/- 90 positions
Ok... one would have to move to San Francisco and deal with its housing exclusivity not unlike Vancouver's, but there are few solutions to the income vs housing cost problem.
Don't bother getting a driver's license.
The above chart from the IEA shows that the United States is projected to provide 70% of the increase in global oil supply over next five years. And below are maps of Vancouver's supply of electric vehicle chargers compared to Amsterdam's.
The competing forces are energized and heating up in the forthcoming U.S. election cycle.
Chris Hayes All In with AOC
Vancouver is going to see short haul battery powered electric aircraft as early as 2021-22.
As Bloomberg reports:
Worldwide, there are some 100 different electric-aircraft programs in development, according to an estimate by consulting firm Roland Berger GmbH.
"The first passenger flights for British Columbia-based Harbour Air Ltd. which flies about 500,000 passengers each year from BC and downtown Seattle, would be in late 2021 under a partnership with Seattle's MagniX Technologies, pending regulatory approvals..."
Longer term, Roei Ganzarski, MagniX’s CEO predicts that electric motors will lead to a “resurgence” in the regional airline industry for trips under 1,000 miles with new aircraft designed for 10-25 passengers. North American carriers have struggled to fly in some of the smallest markets as most commercial aircraft flying today have at least 50 seats, too many for thinner routes.
“By 2025, 1,000 miles is going to be easily done,” Ganzarski said, based on the evolution of current battery technologies. “I’m not saying 5,000 miles, but 1,000 miles, easily. I don’t think that’s far-fetched or a pie-in-the-sky thing.” Bloomberg, March 26, 2019 Full Report
WORLD.MINDS MOBILITY on the world’s first
electronic, autonomous personal aircraft.
"Real Estate Prices will rebalance and cities will become
reener with more pedestrian zones on the ground."
"The retail industry will be transformed by technology, just like newspapers were."
@benedictevans March 20, 2019
Thanks to Benedict Evans for retweeting Andreessen Horowitz's 76 page slide show "Mobile is Eating the World"
The charts to the left from the slideshow are related to autonomous transportation, but the bigger picture of this presentation is about machine learning and the eventual end of your employment if your job is a repetitive task.
"Machine Learning...the idea that systems can learn from data, identify patterns and make decisions with minimal human intervention." sas.com
As the U.S. Energy Information Admin EIA.gov noted in their December 12, 2018 report:
"...concerns about the pace of global economic growth in coming months have led to related concerns about the pace of oil demand growth."
The economic slowdown in China is on, being driven by "risky lending and a rapid rise in debt levels". That sounds familiar to me and I have plotted it out on my Canadian Household Debt, GDP, Balance of Trade and FDI chart.
After decades of sharp expansion, the Chinese economy is slowing down. Growth in 2018 is set to be the weakest since 1990. And 2019 looks even worse. The world's second largest economy is feeling the effects of a darkening trade outlook and government attempts to rein in risky lending after a rapid rise in debt levels. "The drivers of China's slowdown have yet to have their full impact on the economy, and the combination of both is unprecedented," analysts at Moody's wrote in a research note this month. "This creates a high degree of uncertainty and risk. CNN Business December 30. 2018
The USD which is the "senior currency" continues to go up in value when measured against other currencies. That is having a profound effect on global foreign debt holders that have to raise US dollars to repay their loans with their "depreciating" local currencies.
A further, significant strengthening in the dollar will tell us when the Deflationary endgame for the global economy is gathering force. It will crush debtors, bankrupt creditors and lop at least four or five zeroes worth of funny money from the banking system’s quadrillion-dollar shell-game. I have written extensively on why hyperinflation is extremely unlikely to settle debts that have become vastly too large to repay. If you cannot understand why, let me pose this question: Do you actually believe the banksters will let you pay off your mortgage with a few hundred-thousand-dollar bills that you’ve peeled from your wallet? If you answered in the negative, you are implicitly a deflationist.
The C.D. Howe Institute study estimates of money laundering in Canada range from $5 billion to $100 billion. C.D. Howe Report, September 2018
A return to savings will eventually allow the pendulum of capital investment to return to productive use. But asset deflation is in view now and we don't yet know it's future length of trend.
One asset class that retains value and even grows during a broad deflationary event is precious metals; and that canary in the coal mine is happening now. See my ongoing chart study of "real" gold and real estate.
December 31, 2018 note to clients:
The public has been goosed into historically high leveraged balanced sheets that looked ok at the peak of Canadian housing prices in 2017 but now a year later, with interest rates and CPI rising (3% CPI at July 2018), and animal spirits fractured by Trump's war on our imports into the U.S., lenders are now purging out the marginal from the credit worthy. Our zeal for consumption is in the cooler.
Half of Canadian jobs will be impacted by automation in next 10 years
"...a growing demand for “human skills” will be more crucial across job sectors. In particular, critical thinking, coordination, social perceptiveness, active listening and complex problem solving — described in the report as “human skills” — were identified as being key characteristics Canadians should develop to prepare for changes to the workforce." Global News March 2018
What is the link between education and earnings?
Conference Board of Canada March 2013
"Canadians with a university degree earned $165 for every $100 earned by Canadian high school graduates. Those with a college degree earned $110 for every $100 earned by high school graduates, and those who did not graduate from high school earned only $80 for every $100 earned by high school graduates... The relatively lower financial returns on university education in Norway and Canada may be due to the dominance of their energy sectors, which offer relatively high-paying jobs that do not require university educations."
"Between 1998 and 2010...students skills deteriorated somewhat. The proportion of students with high-level reading, math, and science skills dropped, while the proportion of students with low-level reading and math skills increased."
"Canada needs to improve workplace skills training and lifelong education. Canada’s adult literacy skills are mediocre, with a large proportion of adults lacking the literacy skills necessary to function in the workplace. Canada gets a “C” and ranks 10th out of 15 peer countries on the indicator measuring adult participation in job-related non-formal education."
"Canada also underperforms in the highest levels of skills attainment. Canada produces relatively few graduates with PhDs and graduates in math, science, computer science and engineering. More graduates with advance qualifications in these fields would enhance innovation and productivity growth—and ultimately ensure a high and sustainable quality of life for all Canadians."
"Canada’s middle-of-the-pack ranking on university completion may reflect the fact that the financial return from investing in university education in Canada is also middle-of-the-pack at best. Many other countries (and the individuals in those countries) get much better returns on their tertiary investments."
"While not reflected in the report card due to lack of data and measurability challenges, there is a “learning recognition gap” in Canada. What this means is that people may hold knowledge and skills that are not formally recognized (through academic credits or trade/organization/professional certification) by employers or credential-granting institutions."
"An obvious example is immigrants whose foreign credentials are not recognized in Canada. The Alliance of Sector Councils stated that “every Canadian is affected by inefficient recognition. Canadians across the country are short of doctors and other health care workers, while thousands of highly educated newcomer health care workers are not allowed to provide the services that so many Canadians want. People with prior learning gained through work and training are similarly hindered by a lack of learning recognition, as are those who transfer between post-secondary institutions or, in the case of licensed occupations, between provinces."
Is Canada’s workforce sufficiently skilled?
Conference Board of Canada June 2014
No. Given that Canada is a leader on post-secondary educational attainment, one might reasonably expect that the country would also be a leader on adult skills. Yet Canada and most provinces do relatively poorly on adult literacy, numeracy, and problem-solving skills, earning mainly “C” and “D” grades.
What accounts for Canada’s poor performance on adult skills? One reason is that literacy and numeracy skills are not “fixed” forever—individuals can lose skills after they leave school, through lack of use.11 The longer someone has been out of the formal education system, the more impact other factors will have on their proficiency, such as their work and social environment. On average, the younger cohort, aged 16–24, have higher literacy scores than adults aged 45–65, and these results hold no matter what level of education the person has.12 In the absence of continuing education or workplace training, it appears likely that, on average, the skills of Canada’s workers diminish over time.
The country’s grades on adult skills, however, are weak and have deteriorated over the past decade. Canada’s other weaknesses are its low numbers of students graduating with PhDs and with degrees in science, math, computer science, and engineering.
China Might Beat The US in Artificial Intelligence
Eric Schmidt November 2017
"LET THEM IN"
As we wait for the first week of April to unfold and the March real estate data to come in, questions about the stock market's melt-up comes via @anilvohra69
Anil, a retired UBS rates options trader, quotes investment strategist Jeremy Grantham:
Bubbles have a blowoff phase lasting 21 months. Using a 5% threshold, the run from Feb 16 to Dec 17 was 22 months.
Hence the question "Have we seen the melt-up?" It certainly appears that way for Toronto Real Estate (as of February 2018 data) and the March data may add even more weight to the thesis.
If you are thinking of 'buying the dip' make sure your income is amortized over the length of your mortgage. In a melt down, the erosion of net worth will shift a lender's risk management exercise to more closely examine the strength and security of your net income.
As we know employment income growth is facing profound challenges.
Global Risks 2018
According to the IMF, over the past three decades 53% of countries have seen an increase in income inequality, with this trend particularly pronounced in advanced economies. Furthermore, today’s economic strains are likely to sow the seeds for longer-term problems. High levels of personal debt, coupled with inadequate savings and pension provisions, are one reason to expect that frustrations may deepen in the years ahead. We highlight four concerns: (1) persistent inequality and unfairness, (2) domestic and international political tensions, (3) environmental dangers and (4) cyber vulnerabilities. We conclude by reflecting on the increased dangers of systemic breakdown. World Economic Forum
Strongest 'Bubble Burst'' Alarm Just Went Off
Jeremy Grantham 2018
Real estate depreciation is a worrisome event especially if the property is indebted to an arm's length party.
As this page has noted many times before, technology is redefining cash flow so that even if there is no real estate price correction and we all agree to continue to value this commodity at present values, there is still the growing threat to cash flow if you depend on employment for it.
Bloomberg News (Sept 24, 2017) reports that:
Vikram Pandit, who ran Citigroup Inc. during the financial crisis, says technological advances could make 30 percent of banking jobs disappear in five years.
McKinsey & Co. partner Jared Moon predicts that technologies sweeping through investment banks will relieve rank-and-file employees of about a third of their current workload.
Management consultant Opimas LLC says about four of every five Wall Street firms have already implemented, or plan to use, some form of AI, according to Greenwich Associates.
Take a look at Bloomberg's interactive info graphic on the Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerization? and see the probability of your job being replaced with a machine algorithm.
If your job requires repetitive actions during the course of your workday, your job may no longer have an amortization value in the eyes of your employer nor will your mortgage robot rep want to sign that term renewal on your loan without an increase in equity.
Automation Entering White-Collar Work
"I witnessed 40% of my department laid off"
Quote from a bank mortgage department employee
Source: CBC's The National, March 2017
50 Shades of Real Estate
Facing staggering debt loads, hundreds of Alberta post-secondary students are logging on to seekingarrangement.com connecting them to "sugar daddies" who can provide them a monthly allowance and gifts in exchange for negotiated relationships. Calgary Sun January 14, 2017
The red notations show the latest Demographia unaffordability rank of each University location. It's not surprising to see Toronto, the biggest metro in Canada as a destination for pussy grabbers. If we had the data, I would imagine Vancouver, the most unaffordable city in Canada and the 3rd most unaffordable out of 404 global cities, would also incent young men and women into prostitution. In 2011, the Vancouver city council estimated there were +/- 10,000 sex workers in the city. (Vancouver Sun, Sept 30, 2016). Note that Victoria BC is listed on the chart above; you know, that nice little tourist town and retirement village that promotes itself as "a little bit of Britain". The study chart claims 361 Victorians use SeekingArrangement.com which amounts to 0.5% of Victoria's 2006 census. Tea, crumpet, hair pie anyone?
"Students from 20 British universities are joining dating Web sites matching young women with older men, in an attempt to raise money to pay off student loans and other debts." IBTimes.co.uk 2012.
Meanwhile new generations of young inheritors of our social contract enter the culture as a rank commodity to be exploited by daddy.
Canada could use an overhaul of its collective aspirations.
Vancouver Named Sugar Daddy Capital of Canada 2013
Here’s a look at the top 10 Sugar Daddy destinations:
- Paris, France
- Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
- Palm Springs, California
- San Juan, Puerto Rico
- Chicago, Illinois
- Seattle, Washington
- Punta Cana, Dominican Republic
- *Vancouver, Canada
- Las Vegas, Nevada
- Barcelona, Spain
*Vancouver Sugar Daddies spent $4,307 monthly on their younger counterparts on average, more than anywhere else in the country.
Vancouver Sugar Daddies are 40 years old and make $292,506 annually, on average. CTV NEWS 2014
Like most people in Canada, I'm conservative on fiscal issues, liberal on social ones and when it comes to what we do in our own homes, I'm perhaps libertarian as long as harm is not being done to those who dwell there or to our neighbours who also deserve their right to quiet enjoyment.
Airbnb (I track Airbnb, Kijiji and Craigslist rental listings here) is successful because of the demand for income in a state enforced "zero" interest rate economy where the incentive to access credit is greater than the need to manage one's balance sheet risk. It's all good if cash flow remains positive. There is nothing new or radical about Airbnb other than the technology that makes it possible to attract income from a wider network of sources. It's an inevitable outcome from the application of software and governments want their share of the private cash flow that has been drained away from the easier to tax business of commercial hotelier services.
The problem is not that Airbnb, Uber, Amazon, and all the transnational corporations have figured out a way to scrape off income from across national boundaries, but that our internal tax collection system needs to be modernized instead of the current model of punishment and reward. Long time readers of this space will recall my posts on the Automated Payment Transaction model where a micro fee of less than ±1% on every financial transaction is collected automatically at the source terminal doing away with all filing of personal and corporate income, sales, excise, capital gains, import and export duties, gift and estate taxes not to mention accountants, bookkeepers and lawyers hired to insure conformity to government agency rules since those government leviathans will disappear.
It's software folks and it's coming to a country near you sooner or later. So stop bitching about Airbnb and Uber and let loose the regulatory shackles. As Buckminster Fuller quipped: "Don't fight forces, use them."
Meanwhile the warring factions are at it:
New York Governor Cuomo signs bill that deals huge blow to Airbnb NY Post Oct 21, 2015
An investigation of Airbnb rentals from 2010 to 2014 by the state attorney general’s office found that 72 percent of the units in New York City were illegal, with commercial operators constituting 6 percent of the hosts and supplying 36 percent of the rentals.
Toronto drafting Airbnb regulations as available units soar
Globe and Mail Oct 19, 2016
Toronto city bureaucrats say Airbnb rentals in Toronto doubled from 2014 to 2015, with 9,460 rooms or entire units rented via the site that year at least once – as well as hundreds more listed on other sites such as HomeAway, VRBO, FlipKey, Roomorama, Craigslist and Kijiji. In some cities across North America, short-term rentals are allowed but licences are required and only primary residences can be used. In some places, the number of nights a year a unit can be rented is capped; in Seattle, it is 90 nights.
Neighbour complaints led Vancouver to sue over Airbnb rental
CBC News Oct 18, 2016
Chief Vancouver Licensing Inspector Andreea Toma said more lawsuits may be in the works against homeowners who are essentially running commercial enterprises in the form of black market hotel suites. The city of Vancouver wants an order prohibiting the rental of the suite for periods of less than one month.
City of Vancouver files lawsuit to shut down Airbnb host
Globe and Mail Oct 17, 2016
Although almost 5,000 listings appear on the Airbnb site for Vancouver, both city officials and Airbnb agree that the number of people who rent out units on a year-round basis is much lower.
And from Fortune Magazine Oct 21, 2016
In Berlin, Airbnb is fighting a city demand that it turn over information to help enforce a new law imposing fines of up $110,000 on people renting out more than 50% of their homes for less than two months—among the strictest regulations worldwide.
In Barcelona, Airbnb’s third-largest market in Europe, the city is imposing fines that exceed $65,000 for listings without proper licenses.
In Amsterdam city officials in April started scraping data from Airbnb and other short-term rental websites to root out illegal hosts because Airbnb will not turn over details on violators.
In Los Angeles, a study by the pro-labor Los Angeles Alliance for a New Economy found that property owners with two or more listings generated 44% of all Airbnb revenue in Los Angeles.
In New York City, the state Attorney General found that, between 2010 and 2014, more than 300,000 Airbnb reservations violated the law, representing about $304 million in booking revenue, with about $40 million of that going to Airbnb.
Airbnb Home Rental Nightmares
The Future is 10 Years Away - Uber Freight
middle men disappear?
History, Charts & Curated Readings
"Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement; and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana Vol. I, Reason in Common Sense
Balance Of Trade
Rent Or Buy