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Deflation Probability

6/28/2020

 
Ratio of top 1% to rest of earners
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
Thanks to Greg The Analyst's April 22, 2020 blog entry "Why I view this cycle as deflationary, not inflationary." for his unsourced reproduction chart of the "Income Share of Top 1% Relative to Bottom 90%" since 1920 (chart left).

I added to the chart mashup the closest comparison I could find to reflect Canada's wealth gap. The two countries track the same trend in income disparity rising from the early 1980's when state mandated interest rate inflation peaked, to now the end of 2Q 2020 when our new Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem said on June 22nd, "Our main concern is to avoid a persistent drop in inflation by helping Canadians get back to work."

"avoid a persistent drop in inflation" oh oh... apparently the members of the The Canadian Club of Montreal who are mainly from the business and professional communities addressed by the Governor are not to be exposed to the apparently scary noun... "deflation"

I will highlight below the main points of Greg's argument. ​We are indeed beginning to see the elements unfold for another great cycle of deflation, not official yet, but the evidence mounts.

Below is a mashup of "FRED" charts on Velocity of Money and the Probability of Deflation. The Bank of Canada does not publicly​ publish those metrics.
​

Money Velocity

Money Velocity
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
​M1 Money Velocity has been trending down since 4Q 2007 (the "Great Recession") as unemployment rates have been rising (the 10 year change in unemployment in Canada is up 38.4% on the May 2020 data chart). The unemployed consume less; hence they save more. As consumption rates fall, GDP drops: (from 4Q 2008 to 4Q 2009, GDP dropped 1.9% and with the Covid 19 shutdown the March 2020 GDP print is down 6.8% since 4Q 2019).

M2 Money Velocity was trending up until 3Q 1997 and both employment and greater consumption (inflation) increased. The first hit to consumption came with the DotCom crash in 1Q 2000 and the Consumer Price Index began to drop and then plunge into the March 2009 Great Recession. By 2011 the commodity super cycle peaked (see the Deflation Probability chart below and the TSX Indexes chart)

The Bank of Canada's 2% CPI target and their policy framework (ZIRP & NIRP) is to "
avoid a persistent drop in inflation". The most recent CPI print (April 2020) was negative at -0.2% via pandemic repricing.
​   

Deflation Probability

Deflation Probability
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
Theses are still early days in the pandemic. New deaths from the novel coronavirus today (June 28, 2020) are the highest in Mexico. The U.S. is ranked 7th and Canada is ranked 72nd (Worldometers). Trade wars are intensifying, supply chains are being disrupted and cash flows are being diverted towards turning debt into equity. Let's take a look at Greg The Analyst's argument and the charts he used:

Charts Used:

  1. Kondratieff investment "Seasons".
  2. U.S. income share of the top 1% relative to the bottom 90% since 1920.
  3. U.S. Dow Jones industrial price index with notations of Fed action and market reaction 1920 through 1932.
  4. April 2020 forecast of U.S. job losses by sector.
  5. U.S. share of wealth of the top 1% relative to the bottom 90% from 1960 to 2014.
  6. U.S. distribution of wealth from 1917 to 2017.
  7. U.S. velocity of M2 money stock since 1960.
  8. U.S. corporate profits and employee compensation as a percentage of GDP since 1947.
  9. U.S. milk production output since 2001.
​
Argument Bullet Points: Why Greg's view is that this cycle is deflationary, not inflationary.

  • (Chart 1) Disinflation periods see asset prices and debt levels rise as CPI, interest rates, fixed income yields drop and commodity prices drop eventually leading to stock market drops (equity share pricing).
  • (Chart 1) Deflation periods see asset and consumer prices drop along with consumer confidence as rising unemployment leads to consumption and production drops as well as debt repudiation, credit contraction, spiking interest rates and currency repricing.
  • (Chart 1) Inflation reignition requires demand to be much greater than supply which requires deflationary deleveraging (turning debt into equity).
  • (Chart 2) In this last cycle of Disinflation, production supply became much greater than demand consumption and as the stock market equities boomed the ongoing transfer of wealth accelerated towards the top 10% leaving the bottom 90% of earners stuck at late 1990's real wages producing a collapsing middle class and no further possibility of inflation. Hard deflation rebuilds the middle class.
  • (Chart 3) In the Great Depression of the late 1920's and early 1930's, the Fed tried its then version of QE but it did not prevent the Dow from a 2+ year crash. Very low operating margins from overcapacity (high supply exceeding low demand), coupled with high levels of debt creates the scenario of weak hands capitulating. 
  • (Chart 4) Commodity prices, manufacturing, retail and wholesale trade, service industries and the travel, accommodation and food service sectors have all been hit by Covid 19 wiping out a decade and more of high employment.
  • (Chart 5+6) A key feature of the early 1930's depression was, as it is today, the wealth gap and the broken structure of the middle class. (see my June 20, 2020 post "Household Net Worth")
  • (Chart 7) The slow down in the velocity of money results from the deflationary transfer of wealth from the middle class to the top 10% which produces a change from a productive economy and investing in people to unproductive investment in financial engineering. (see my June 11, 2020 post on "CDOs Then CLOs Now")
  • (Chart 8+9) The commodity super cycle ended in 2011 and by 2012 as a percentage of GDP, employee compensation crashed and corporate profits peaked. QE bailouts of corporations and the bond market by central banks over the last decade have not been inflationary for employment wages but has only exaggerated the wealth gap and increased the supply side. Inventories have spiked while demand has been dropping and now has plunged with the plague. Booms and over supply lead to busts. Rebuilding the middle class demand leads to productivity.


​Reopening Canada: 3 stages of recovery

Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn speaks with FP’s Kevin Carmichael and Manulife Investment Management’s Frances Donald about what’s ahead as Canada starts to re-open following the COVID-19 pandemic. June 25, 2020​

DEPRESSION DEFINITION 
​
(✓) = now occurring in various global economic centers.

Depressions are characterized by their length, by abnormally large increases in unemployment (✓), falls in the availability of credit (✓) (often due to some form of banking or financial crisis (✓)), shrinking output (✓) as buyers dry up (✓) and suppliers cut back on production and investment (✓), more bankruptcies (✓) including sovereign debt defaults (✓), significantly reduced amounts of trade and commerce (✓) (especially international trade (✓)), as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations (✓) (often due to currency devaluations (✓)). Price deflation (✓), financial crises (✓), stock market crash (✓), and bank failures (✓) are also common elements of a depression that do not normally occur during a recession. (Wikipedia)

Japan Redux

8/1/2019

 
Japan's BoJ ZIRP & NIRP
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
While we wait for the July Canadian housing data to trickle out, let's return to Japan and their housing price experience after nearly 20 years of ZIRP and NIRP.

I have posted charts about Japan since 2012 to illustrate the folly of global central banks and their monetary policies of instituting ZIRP & NIRP to stimulate inflation > consumption > production, the by-product of which, has been the manic search for yields as the underlying asset class values became stretched to perfection under pressure from the FOMO crowd.

Instead of using fiscal policy which requires long term planning and socially cohesive agreements directed towards production and well being, the quarterly knob twiddling monetary policy has in part, along with the rise of a digitized global financial network, unleashed "megabyte" money laundering which the UNODC  estimates at 2-5% of global GDP per year.

It has also crushed the incentive to save for a future funding of investment into productive assets.  

The 
Household Saving Rate in Canada has decreased to 1.1% in the first quarter of 2019.
​​
Canada Savings Rate
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE


​Commodity Super Cycle - 10 Years into the Bear

After 20 years of monetary suppressed-yield policy in Japan and 10 years in Canada we still see long term inflation in a grinding downtrend, and peak commodities have come and gone.
​

Commodity Peak
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
Commodity Bear
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

Here is a chart I published in a 2012 post "What Do You Do During a Housing Bust".

The answer is "save".
​

If the CRB chart above has correctly identified a cyclical swing between bull and bear commodity production, then we should expect another "lost decade" of balance sheet repair especially in the over-speculated and now depreciating housing asset markets of Canada.
Japan saves during a housing bust
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

Yields Dropping

3/13/2019

 
​Marc Goldfried, head of Canoe Financial Fixed Income talks with BNN Bloomberg about dropping yields confirming a weakening economy.
​
​The Bank rate has been 2% for the last five months but the ​Bank of Canada 2yr and 10yr benchmark bond yields are indeed inverted to the Bank Rate as I have noted on my Yield Curve chart (FEB 2019)

On march 11th 2019, David Larock an independent full-time mortgage broker laid out his "Case for Lower Canadian Mortgage Rates", below edited, but read the whole feature report at  MoveSmartly.com 
The Bank of Canada acknowledged that our current economic slowdown is now “more pronounced and widespread” than it had previously forecast.

Global economic momentum is slowing.

Our economic slowdown has been sharper than expected.

Housing and consumption have slowed, and business investment and exports haven’t picked up the slack as the BoC had hoped.

Inflation expectations have been lowered.

Uncertainty is increasing.

Our output gap is widening because debt is choking off growth, and that is a powerful, long-term headwind, which will continue to exert itself long after global trade networks have been re-established.

On this last item, my Household Debt chart is in agreement.
​
Monetary Un-Growth and Un-Productivity
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
Thanks to Jesse Felder @jessefelder and
Tuomas Malinen @mtmalinen for the charts above.
Today, March 13th 2019, the live
​Canadian Productivity Chart exhibits a slowdown.

Peak Consumption

1/25/2019

 

Peak Consumption in Canada
appears to be at hand.

Feeble savings may also signal that
consumption-led growth has nearly reached it’s end, as
Canadians are spending by drawing down savings.​

​From Bloomberg via TheStar.com ​December 1, 2018​
Hat Tip to TradingEconomics.com for the Charts
Canada Saving Rate
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
Canada Consumer Spending
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
Canada Retail Sales
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
The low rate leaves Canadians more vulnerable to an economic shock, according to Brian DePratto at Toronto-Dominion Bank. “It’s concerning that households aren’t building up buffers and prepping for retirement like they used to,” the Toronto-based senior economist said by email. “The extent to which Canadians turn around their priorities when it comes to their financial situation could also mean less money for consumer spending.”
“It doesn’t bode well for consumption spending moving forward,” National Bank Financial’s Krishen Rangasamy

Oil <23

12/31/2018

 
Oil less than USD$23
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
As we wait for the December real estate data, let's look at some year end charts. 

First up is Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg who is suggesting that the price of oil is headed down to less than USD$23.

​Notice where oil was trading in 2001-2002 and 2016.

​As the U.S. Energy Information Admin EIA.gov noted in their December 12, 2018 report:
"...concerns about the pace of global economic growth in coming months have led to related concerns about the pace of oil demand growth."
China Debt
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
The economic slowdown in China is on, being driven by "risky lending and a rapid rise in debt levels". That sounds familiar to me and I have plotted it out on my Canadian Household Debt, GDP, Balance of Trade and FDI chart.

After decades of sharp expansion, the Chinese economy is slowing down. Growth in 2018 is set to be the weakest since 1990. And 2019 looks even worse. The world's second largest economy is feeling the effects of a darkening trade outlook and government attempts to rein in risky lending after a rapid rise in debt levels. "The drivers of China's slowdown have yet to have their full impact on the economy, and the combination of both is unprecedented," analysts at Moody's wrote in a research note this month. "This creates a high degree of uncertainty and risk. CNN Business December 30. 2018
​
The Canadian Dollar continues to plunge. That means our import costs go up and our net trade has been negative 8 out of the last 11 prints; ie: we Canadians buy more than we sell which is ok if we have the income to service the debt, but as the Chinese economy slows and they buy less of our resources, our incomes as well as other countries incomes are going to diminish.
​​ 
​
CAD
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
The USD which is the "senior currency" continues to go up in value when measured against other currencies. That is having a profound effect on global foreign debt holders that have to raise US dollars to repay their loans with their "depreciating" local currencies.
USD Foreign Debt
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
As Rick Ackerman reminded his clients on December 30, 2018:
A further, significant strengthening in the dollar will tell us when the Deflationary endgame for the global economy is gathering force. It will crush debtors, bankrupt creditors and lop at least four or five zeroes worth of funny money from the banking system’s quadrillion-dollar shell-game. I have written extensively on why hyperinflation is extremely unlikely to settle debts that have become vastly too large to repay. If you cannot understand why, let me pose this question: Do you actually believe the banksters will let you pay off your mortgage with a few hundred-thousand-dollar bills that you’ve peeled from your wallet? If you answered in the negative, you are implicitly a deflationist. 
Since the start of ZIRP and NIRP it has been difficult to "be a deflationist" as we watched the global bubble of everything inflate; resource assets, equities, debt and of course real estate which Canadians with the help of foreign laundry services have pushed real estate prices into the top tiers of global pricing. In November 2018, I posted "Dirty Real Estate" which highlighted the "Vancouver Model" that has spread throughout Canada. 
The C.D. Howe Institute study estimates of money laundering in Canada range from $5 billion to $100 billion. C.D. Howe Report, September 2018
e don't even know what the "value" of the crime is, but we know what the effect has been in terms of FOMO debt taken on by Canadians. Real estate prices have peaked in Canada and as they drop, the FOMO crowd has a tough choice to make: turn debt into equity quickly by selling the asset or stay in for the long haul and meet the amortization obligation. If it's the former, look for price drops to happen quickly as vendors compete for a diminishing supply of buyers; if it's the latter look for a slow Japanese style deflation and a return to savings as noted in my 2012 post "What Do You Do During a Housing Bust".

A return to savings will eventually allow the pendulum of capital investment to return to productive use. But asset deflation is in view now and we don't yet know it's future length of trend.

One asset class that retains value and even grows during a broad deflationary event is precious metals; and that canary in the coal mine is happening now. See my ongoing chart study of "real" gold and real estate.​
And below, see Chris Kimble's
December 31, 2018 note to clients:​
Gold/USD ratio
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
Strength in Gold of late has it (the Gold/USD ratio) breaking above the top of this trading range at (2). What the ratio does at this resistance test will send an important message to the metals sector for the next few months.​
​CLICK HERE if you want a free trial of Chris Kimble's peerless financial market technical research.

Debt vs Employment

5/28/2018

 
2000-2008 Canada Debt Employment
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
My recent update of Foreign Direct Investment on my Canadian Household Debt, GDP,  and Balance of Trade chart demonstrates that Canadian Capital would rather flee than fight. 
The chart above adds more to the story. Since the dot com bust in 2000, net trade has plunged and to preserve lifestyle, household debt to income has soared to recent highs. Then with the credit collapse in 2008, import prices began to soar while the employment rate dropped against rising productivity and a savings rate that has plunged since the 1981 interest rate spike (Trading Economics Chart). Why bother saving when the government monetary policy is to leverage one's way to prosperity and let time and asset price inflation take care of balance sheets. It's a global trend and the fear of missing out has been a powerful input.

But peak debt may be upon us in this business cycle as banks begin to report a drop in mortgage demand.
​The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce anticipates it will issue half as many new mortgages in the latter part of the year as it did in the same period of 2017 amid cooling in the real estate market. Times Colonist May 23, 2018
The ranks of the credit worthy are thinning. Debt retirement is either a slow process of repayment, or a quick liquidation of assets. Your balance sheet is the clue to your future. Governments demand stress tests; individuals should as well.
​

David Rosenberg: Ottawa created the debt monster that Canada now faces.
"47% of residential mortgages
​are set to roll over for renewal next year."

David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates, joins BNN Bloomberg to provide his take on the Canadian economy as Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz sounds the alarm on household debt in this country. Originally aired on May 2, 2018 on BNN Bloomberg

Inversion Report

1/27/2018

 
Canadian Yield Curve
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

​In December 2017, the 10yr less 2yr Canada Government bond spread narrowed to just 32 beeps away from inversion.
In April 2006 it was 33bps away and narrowing until ​it was fully inverted in May, June and July of 2007, and then central banks panicked and goosed the spread to widening again and by November 2007 it was 31bps again.

A year and half later the wide reached 230 beeps in May 2009, 2 months after the pit of gloom crash bottom.

We should start watching for further narrowing now especially with equity markets at their historical tops.
​
The Macro Model" chart below is from Crescat Capital with a few of my notations about Canadian debt levels which are at historical highs. ​NILS JENSON from Crescat Capital on January 27, 2018 made the observation that:
Market history is littered with downturns that followed new Republican presidents: Hoover (1929), Eisenhower (1953), Nixon (1969), Reagan (1981), and Bush (2001). The Trump bubble will likely prove to be the mother of all Republican presidential ebullience bubbles. Trade wars are not positive at all for the markets. They are what exacerbated the Great Depression and they should be one of the key triggers of the bursting of the China bubble.
Crescat Macro Model
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

Here's Who Could Lose the Most in a U.S.-China Trade War
Bloomberg, January 23, 2017

Sure Thing

5/8/2017

 
Corporate vs Household Savings
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
Investment decisions are made because one believes there will be a reward. Globally, both corporations and households are drawing down their savings and making investments. But In Canada reward seekers are heavily conditioned.

The "Sectoral Savings as a Percentage of Global GDP" chart suggests that households since the mid 1980's have been using up their savings to maintain lifestyle and since the start of ZIRP and NIRP in March of 2009, households with renewed zeal, have been moving cash out of their dwindling low interest savings accounts paired with record low borrowing costs to chase yields at risk. 

​Corporations since the mid-80's have amassed savings into record levels and after the smoke cleared in 2010, they resumed investment as well.

But in Canada as my Household Debt chart with overlays of GDP, Net Trade and Federal Direct Investment plots show, Canada has not been a net positive target for offshore investment money for the last 20 years. As we know the Alberta tar sands' appeal is troubled: 
​
Carlos Murillo (Conference Board of Canada economist), predicts Canadian (oil sector) industry costs will jump by an average of 13 per cent per year between 2017 and 2021... the peak investment level was $62 billion in 2014... "  The Canadian Press March 13, 2017
And the recency bias among households is working itself into heat exhaustion according to Bloomberg (May 8, 2017):

Expectations for Canada’s housing market are heating up, with more than half of respondents in a weekly telephone survey predicting home prices will rise, the first time the measure has topped 50 percent in records dating back to 2008... “Consumer sentiment on real estate has gone from hot to hotter,” said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos... The latest burst of housing momentum has led policy makers to question whether it’s being led by supply and demand or by speculation.
If one is willing to leverage up and buy a negative yielding asset while the attendant stakeholders from government to loan creators are lining up to take a piece of the action, sellers will simply show up and sell it to you. That's a sure thing, just like the Canadian real estate market is speculative 101.

ITEM: "
Toronto Homeowners List Detached Homes For Sale At A Record Pace - Toronto homeowners are listing detached homes for sale at a rapid pace, with new listings soaring over 61% last month." BetterDwelling.com May 10, 2017
​
ITEM: China Commodity Crash Accelerates As Traders "Forced To Destock" ZeroHedge May 9, 2017

​As Citi warned over the weekend, "We suspect that a good number of physical traders that are financially leveraged up to five times have been forced to destock due to rising short-term borrowing costs and the recent sharp price corrections... "Citigroup isn’t alone in saying that some traders may be compelled to sell holdings into a falling market as China tightens. Shanghai Cifco Futures Co. said this week signs are emerging that traders are dumping their holdings.
Imagine having to sell real estate in a falling Canadian market.

St. Germain - Sure Thing

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