chpc.biz
  • Home
  • Chart Book
    • 6 Canadian Metros
    • Vancouver Housing
    • Calgary Housing
    • Toronto Housing
    • Compare Toronto & Vancouver
    • Housing Price Momentum
    • Real Price of Housing
    • Sales Listings
    • MAR-MOI
    • TSX Indexes
    • Millionaire Metric
    • Real Price of Gold & RE
    • Canadian Housing in USD
    • Bitcoin Gold & RE
    • Housing Starts
  • Plunge-O-Meter
    • Real Interest Rates
    • Real 10yr Rate
    • Interest Rate Spread
    • Yield Curve
    • Yield Calculator
  • Earnings Employment
    • Household Debt
    • Affordability
    • Demographia
    • Census
  • History Readings
  • Contact
    • Data Sources
    • Featured Links
    • Terms of Service

Peak Oil Says BP

12/6/2020

 
BP estimates Peak Oil in 2019
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
BP estimates oil demand will drop with behavior changes
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
BP noted that Electric Vehicle sales outperformed ICE
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
BP PLC (British Petroleum), one the seven oil and gas "supermajors" (Wikipedia) has released its 2020 oil demand projections and in February 2020 announced a new purpose – "to reimagine energy for people and our planet... ​​​​by a new ambition, to be a net-zero company by 2050 or sooner and to help get the world to net zero." (Full 2020 81 page report here)

Bloomberg picked up the story "Peak Oil is Suddenly Upon Us" and republished some of the detail November 30th; I mashed up a few charts.

​Bloomberg made the observation that:
The list of energy analysts who now foresee a peak in oil demand keeps growing. It includes Norway’s state-owned oil company Equinor (peaking around 2027-28), Norwegian energy researcher Rystad Energy (2028), French oil major Total SA (2030), consulting firm McKinsey (2033), clean-energy research group BloombergNEF (2035), and energy-industry advisors Wood Mackenzie (2035). The exporting nations of OPEC put the peak in 2040 while acknowledging that its new forecast might still prove too optimistic for oil. Notable exceptions include the International Energy Agency, which sees demand “plateauing” but not quite peaking...
On December 3rd, Bloomberg published "Germany’s Electric-Car Market Is Poised to Overtake California’s" and noted that:
Europe is taking unprecedented steps to phase out gasoline and diesel cars, with U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson banning sales of cars that lack a plug from 2030. Germany last month said it will extend cash bonuses for purchasing EVs until 2025, expand the country’s charging network and make payments for topping up batteries easier. California will phase out sales of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035...

​A highlight from the International Energy Agency November 2020 Fuel Report projects that "Renewables are set to lead the global electricity sector."
​Cost reductions and sustained policy support are expected to drive strong renewables growth beyond 2022. Despite the challenges emerging from the Covid crisis, the fundamentals of renewable energy expansion have not changed. Solar PV and onshore wind are already the cheapest ways of adding new electricity-generating plants in most countries today. In countries where good resources and cheap financing are available, wind and solar PV plants will challenge existing fossil fuel plants. Solar projects now offer some of the lowest-cost electricity in history. Overall, renewables are set to account for 95% of the net increase in global power capacity through 2025.

Total installed wind and solar PV capacity is on course to surpass natural gas in 2023 and coal in 2024. Solar PV alone accounts for 60% of all renewable capacity additions through 2025, and wind provides another 30%. Driven by further cost declines, annual offshore wind additions are set to surge, accounting for one-fifth of the total wind annual market in 2025. Offshore’s growth moves beyond Europe to new markets such as China and the United States where ample potential remains. The rapid growth of variable renewables around the world calls for increased policy attention to ensure they are securely and cost-effectively integrated into electricity systems.

​​BloombergNEF Presentation: New Energy Outlook 2020

Seb Hebnest, Chief Economist at BloombergNEF gives a presentation about the outlook for renewable energies in 2020 at the Bloomberg Sustainable Business Summit Global virtual event. NOV 30, 2020


​​Driven by the Power of the Sun

​At Aptera, we’re driving into the future with a 1,000-mile range that gives you the freedom to do more with less impact on the planet. Aptera is the first electric/ solar vehicle that requires no charging for most daily use.  Thanks to the power of the sun, the dream of driving for more miles with less carbon, materials, and energy from the grid is now a reality. (Aptera website)


​QuantumScape is building a better electric car battery that it says charges to 80% in 15 minutes (CNBC) DEC 8, 2020

  • Volkswagen-backed QuantumScape is building a solid-state lithium metal battery for electric vehicles that it says will be safer and better than the cells on the market today.
  • In extensive testing, QuantumScape found that its batteries should allow a car to charge to 80% of its full capacity in about 15 minutes.
  • QuantumScape’s board includes ex-Tesla CTO JB Straubel and SolarCity CFO Brad Buss, along side Volkswagen execs, Juergen Leohold and Frank Blome, among others.
    ​

QuantumScape isn’t alone in its quest to build a better battery. Ultimately, the company will compete with stalwart battery manufacturers like CATL and BYD in China, Panasonic, LG, Samsung and others that manufacture lithium ion battery cells. It will also compete against Tesla, which has designed and started producing some of its own cells, and other companies building solid-state batteries, like Solid Power and Toyota. ​(CNBC) DEC 8, 2020

Unicorns and Narwhals

2/15/2020

 
Thanks to Andrew McAfee for his chart mapping the distribution of "Unicorns" (privately held tech companies valued at 1 Billion $USD or more). Canada is on the map just barely with Shopify. ​

​Charles Plant et al, have released their 
Narwhal list for 2020 of Canadian companies categorized by the amount of funding a firm has raised, divided by the number of years the company has existed and by the rate at which a company raises and consumes capital to support its growth. 60 made the list.
​
Canadian Unicorns
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
"Last year (2019), nine Narwhal companies raised rounds exceeding $131 million CAD ($100 million USD). Over the last three years, the financial velocity required to make the list and the average financial velocity of companies on the list has increased, meaning companies are moving faster in securing capital. The number of Narwhals on track to become ‘Unicorns’ has also grown from seven to 42." Charles Plant, the founder of the Narwhal Project, FEB 4, 2020.
Three years ago, we at the Impact Centre initiated the Narwhal Project to conduct research to discover the root causes of Canada’s challenges in creating a world-leading innovation economy. We thought it would be useful at this juncture to summarize our findings. This Report  highlights some of the issues we have identified.

For fifty years, the federal and provincial governments have been spending billions to improve our innovation economy, but without performance improvements. The usual discussion is centered on Canadian businesses and their lacklustre performance on research and development (R&D) and intellectual property (IP) protection. In addition, our productivity has lagged relative to the US because of insufficient investments into productivity-enhancing technologies, along with the lack of available capital and talented people to grow technology firms.

But we believe that a critical challenge is our inability to scale companies to a world-class size. Larger companies boast several advantages. They have greater revenue per employee, pay better salaries, undertake more R&D, and take out more patents.

We lack large companies, particularly in the technology sector. We have only one Unicorn (with perhaps another one qualifying but not listed as such at the date of this publication) compared with over 150 in the US. Few tech companies in Canada grow large enough to go public. This means less R&D, fewer patents, and, ultimately, lower income per capita and productivity.

Perhaps the solution to our innovation challenge is not more R&D and more patents, but rather scaling and building of companies. But why are we challenged do this in the tech field? What we have found is that:

• Few Canadian companies are founded in large consumer markets capable of generating the desired scale.
• We invest less per company relative to the US.
• Canadian firms spend less on marketing and sales (M&S), activities that are critical to building the customer base.
• We have fewer qualified people in marketing functions.

The underinvestment and underspending result in lower growth rates for Canadian tech firms compared to their US counterparts. Fundamentally then, Canadian firms do not look as attractive as potential investments due to slower growth. Because of this, they do not attract large amounts of late-stage capital and are often sold before they can scale to worldclass size.

All of these factors converge to create serious barriers to growth of Canadian companies, thus necessitating smarter and more strategic thinking about how we will overcome these challenges.

Full Report Here
This page Household Debt, updated monthly, tracks Canadian Household Debt, GDP, Foreign Direct Investment and Balance of Trade and shows that:
​
1) ​The widening spread between total household debt and household mortgages means we are borrowing even more to maintain lifestyle.

2) Foreign Direct Investment OUT higher than IN over the last 20 years means Canadian  companies are investing outside of Canada to get a better return on Capital and Labour. For every $1 of investment coming in to Canada, $1.47 leaves (full year 2018 data).
​
3) The chronic negative Canadian Balance of Trade means that OUR debt obligations continue to provide more stimulus to offshore than onshore producers.​
​
If you want to labour at the lower end of the pay scale, you can always move boxes of consumer items in and out of warehouses. ​But if higher earnings are required, your job security is dependent on your non-routine skills.
​

Top 3 Technology Trends for 2020 | YBF Ventures


​Top 3 Technology Trends for 2020 by Startupbootcamp co-founder Ruud Hendriks. Ruud was speaking on the People Building Businesses podcast. JAN 22, 2020

Very High Confidence

9/26/2019

 
Now that Trump is plummeting into a straight jacket of impeachment we can look for fallout that may affect Canadian Real Estate over the next year. Trade war, cyber war, military war and the ideological war of words and memes will no doubt affect the animal spirits of investors. 
​
Earth Rise 1968 Nasa
CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

​The bigger influence on Canadian real estate values will be the next decade of our reactions to the exponential growth in climate problems ("very high confidence") global migration pressures and the inevitable expansion towards technological solutions and a new generation of research and development; a new generation of critical thinking. 

​“A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” that is, "Science advances one funeral at a time" Max Planck 1949

From Wikileaks comes the 1217 page PDF 2017 U.S. Global Change Research Program 'Climate Science Special Report' (CSSR). Below is a screen shot of the key findings page:
​
Wikileaks CSSR 2017 Climate Change Report
CLICK DRAFT TO ENLARGE

Here follows, a text version of the screenshot of the key findings page of the 2017 U.S. Global Change Research Program 'Climate Science Special Report' (CSSR):
1. Our Globally Changing Climate
KEY FINDINGS


  1. The global climate continues to change rapidly compared to the pace of the natural changes in climate that have occurred throughout Earth’s history. Trends in globally-averaged temperature, sea-level rise, upper-ocean heat content, land based ice melt, and other climate variables provide consistent evidence of a warming planet. These observed trends are robust, and have been confirmed by independent research groups around the world. (Very high confidence)

  2. The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation and extreme heat events are increasing in most regions of the world. These trends are consistent with expected physical responses to a warming climate and with climate model studies, although models tend to underestimate the observed trends. The frequency and intensity of such extreme events will very likely continue to rise in the future. Trends for some other types of extreme events, such as floods, droughts, and severe storms, have more regional characteristics. (Very high confidence)

  3. Many lines of evidence demonstrate that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are primarily responsible for the observed climate changes in the industrial era. There are no alternative explanations, and no natural cycles are found in the observational record that can explain the observed changes in climate. (Very high confidence)

  4. Global climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades primarily on the amount of greenhouse (heat trapping) gases emitted globally and the sensitivity of Earth’s climate to those emissions. (Very high confidence)

  5. Natural variability, including El Niño events and other recurring patterns of ocean-atmosphere interactions, have important, but limited influences on global and regional climate over timescales ranging from months to decades. (Very high confidence)

  6. Longer-term climate records indicate that average temperatures in recent decades over much of the world have been higher than at any other time in the past 1700 years or more. ( High confidence)

​1.1 Introduction
Since the Third U.S. National Climate assessment (NCA3) was published in May 2014, new observations along with multiple lines of evidence have strengthened the conclusion that Earth’s climate is changing at a pace and in a pattern not explainable by natural influences.


​Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg chastised world leaders Monday, Sep. 23, for failing younger generations by not taking sufficient steps to stop climate change. "You have stolen my childhood and my dreams with your empty words," Thunberg said at the United Nations Climate Action Summit in New York. "You're failing us, but young people are starting to understand your betrayal. The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you choose to fail us, I say we will never forgive you," she added. Thunberg traveled to the U.S. by sailboat last month so she could appear at the summit. She and other youth activists led international climate strikes on Friday in an attempt to garner awareness ahead of the UN's meeting of political and business leaders.
PBS NewsHour Sep 23, 2019
    Follow @Brian_Ripley

    RSS Feed



    History, Charts & Curated Readings

    "History, real solemn history, I cannot be interested in.... I read it a little as a duty; but it tells me nothing that does not either vex or weary me. The quarrels of popes and kings, with wars and pestilences in every page; the men all so good for nothing, and hardly any women at all - it is very tiresome." Jane Austen spoken by Catherine Morland in 'Northanger Abbey'


    Archives

    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012
    January 2012

    Categories

    All
    AI
    Airbnb
    Apt
    Austerity
    Australia
    Balance Of Trade
    BNN
    BTC
    Bubbles
    Budget
    Bulls
    Busts
    Calgary
    Canada
    Capital Flight
    Case Shiller
    Case Study
    Charlie Rose
    China
    Chris Kimble
    Climate
    Cmhc
    Commodities
    CPI
    Credit
    Cullen Roche
    Currency
    Debt
    Deflation
    Demographics
    Dubai
    Employment
    Energy
    Environment
    Europe
    Exports
    Fair Value
    Flippers
    Future
    FX
    GDP
    Gold
    Greenspan
    Hong Kong
    Hyperinflation
    Id
    Imports
    Inflation
    Interest Rates
    Japan
    Labour
    Martin Armstrong
    MM
    Money Laundering
    Money Velocity
    Montreal
    Mortgage
    Net Worth
    New York
    OECD
    Oil
    Olympic Village
    Pandemic
    Pmi
    Poverty
    Productivity
    Recession
    REIT
    Rent Or Buy
    Russia
    Savers
    Savings
    Solar Cycle
    Stock Market
    Super Rich
    Tax
    Technology
    Tesla
    Toronto
    Trade
    Trump
    TV
    U.K.
    Unemployment
    U.S.
    Vancouver
    Victoria
    Wages
    War
    Weather
    Whale Watching
    WTO
    Yield

    "Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement; and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana Vol. I, Reason in Common Sense​​
Home | Chart Book | Earnings | Plunge-O-Meter | History & Readings | Contact

BRIAN RIPLEY'S CANADIAN HOUSING PRICE CHARTS & Blog for
#Vancouver #Calgary #Edmonton #Toronto #Ottawa #Montreal
Real Estate Prices, Sales & Inventory with Plunge-O-Nomic Post Peak Price Action featuring the PLUNGE-O-METER
Data reporting changes by Real Estate Boards and other data collection notes are listed on the DATA SOURCES page.

If you want to be notified when I update this site, go to: twitter.com/Brian_Ripley and click "Follow".

GET A FREE TRIAL DISCOUNT TO CHRIS KIMBLE'S FINANCIAL MARKETS CHARTING SOLUTIONS
ADVERTISE YOUR REAL ESTATE FOR SALE TO THIS INFORMED AUDIENCE
Thousands of Unique Visitors and Page Views Every Month TRAFFIC CHART

Picture
Picture
Picture

Weebly - Websites, eCommerce & Marketing in one place.
Compare Weebly Plans
​This website & blog was built with Weebly; a very easy to use drag and drop cloud based app. TRY IT FOR FREE​
CHPC.biz (this site) is a SAFE BROWSING SITE according to Google's Safe Browsing Diagnostic

  • Home
  • Chart Book
    • 6 Canadian Metros
    • Vancouver Housing
    • Calgary Housing
    • Toronto Housing
    • Compare Toronto & Vancouver
    • Housing Price Momentum
    • Real Price of Housing
    • Sales Listings
    • MAR-MOI
    • TSX Indexes
    • Millionaire Metric
    • Real Price of Gold & RE
    • Canadian Housing in USD
    • Bitcoin Gold & RE
    • Housing Starts
  • Plunge-O-Meter
    • Real Interest Rates
    • Real 10yr Rate
    • Interest Rate Spread
    • Yield Curve
    • Yield Calculator
  • Earnings Employment
    • Household Debt
    • Affordability
    • Demographia
    • Census
  • History Readings
  • Contact
    • Data Sources
    • Featured Links
    • Terms of Service