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BP PLC (British Petroleum), one the seven oil and gas "supermajors" (Wikipedia) has released its 2020 oil demand projections and in February 2020 announced a new purpose – "to reimagine energy for people and our planet... ​​​​by a new ambition, to be a net-zero company by 2050 or sooner and to help get the world to net zero." (Full 2020 81 page report here) Bloomberg picked up the story "Peak Oil is Suddenly Upon Us" and republished some of the detail November 30th; I mashed up a few charts. ​Bloomberg made the observation that: The list of energy analysts who now foresee a peak in oil demand keeps growing. It includes Norway’s state-owned oil company Equinor (peaking around 2027-28), Norwegian energy researcher Rystad Energy (2028), French oil major Total SA (2030), consulting firm McKinsey (2033), clean-energy research group BloombergNEF (2035), and energy-industry advisors Wood Mackenzie (2035). The exporting nations of OPEC put the peak in 2040 while acknowledging that its new forecast might still prove too optimistic for oil. Notable exceptions include the International Energy Agency, which sees demand “plateauing” but not quite peaking... On December 3rd, Bloomberg published "Germany’s Electric-Car Market Is Poised to Overtake California’s" and noted that: Europe is taking unprecedented steps to phase out gasoline and diesel cars, with U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson banning sales of cars that lack a plug from 2030. Germany last month said it will extend cash bonuses for purchasing EVs until 2025, expand the country’s charging network and make payments for topping up batteries easier. California will phase out sales of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035...

​Cost reductions and sustained policy support are expected to drive strong renewables growth beyond 2022. Despite the challenges emerging from the Covid crisis, the fundamentals of renewable energy expansion have not changed. Solar PV and onshore wind are already the cheapest ways of adding new electricity-generating plants in most countries today. In countries where good resources and cheap financing are available, wind and solar PV plants will challenge existing fossil fuel plants. Solar projects now offer some of the lowest-cost electricity in history. Overall, renewables are set to account for 95% of the net increase in global power capacity through 2025.

Total installed wind and solar PV capacity is on course to surpass natural gas in 2023 and coal in 2024. Solar PV alone accounts for 60% of all renewable capacity additions through 2025, and wind provides another 30%. Driven by further cost declines, annual offshore wind additions are set to surge, accounting for one-fifth of the total wind annual market in 2025. Offshore’s growth moves beyond Europe to new markets such as China and the United States where ample potential remains. The rapid growth of variable renewables around the world calls for increased policy attention to ensure they are securely and cost-effectively integrated into electricity systems.

​​BloombergNEF Presentation: New Energy Outlook 2020

​​Driven by the Power of the Sun

​QuantumScape is building a better electric car battery that it says charges to 80% in 15 minutes (CNBC) DEC 8, 2020

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"Last year (2019), nine Narwhal companies raised rounds exceeding $131 million CAD ($100 million USD). Over the last three years, the financial velocity required to make the list and the average financial velocity of companies on the list has increased, meaning companies are moving faster in securing capital. The number of Narwhals on track to become ‘Unicorns’ has also grown from seven to 42." Charles Plant, the founder of the Narwhal Project, FEB 4, 2020.

Three years ago, we at the Impact Centre initiated the Narwhal Project to conduct research to discover the root causes of Canada’s challenges in creating a world-leading innovation economy. We thought it would be useful at this juncture to summarize our findings. This Report  highlights some of the issues we have identified.

For fifty years, the federal and provincial governments have been spending billions to improve our innovation economy, but without performance improvements. The usual discussion is centered on Canadian businesses and their lacklustre performance on research and development (R&D) and intellectual property (IP) protection. In addition, our productivity has lagged relative to the US because of insufficient investments into productivity-enhancing technologies, along with the lack of available capital and talented people to grow technology firms.

But we believe that a critical challenge is our inability to scale companies to a world-class size. Larger companies boast several advantages. They have greater revenue per employee, pay better salaries, undertake more R&D, and take out more patents.

We lack large companies, particularly in the technology sector. We have only one Unicorn (with perhaps another one qualifying but not listed as such at the date of this publication) compared with over 150 in the US. Few tech companies in Canada grow large enough to go public. This means less R&D, fewer patents, and, ultimately, lower income per capita and productivity.

Perhaps the solution to our innovation challenge is not more R&D and more patents, but rather scaling and building of companies. But why are we challenged do this in the tech field? What we have found is that:

• Few Canadian companies are founded in large consumer markets capable of generating the desired scale.
• We invest less per company relative to the US.
• Canadian firms spend less on marketing and sales (M&S), activities that are critical to building the customer base.
• We have fewer qualified people in marketing functions.

The underinvestment and underspending result in lower growth rates for Canadian tech firms compared to their US counterparts. Fundamentally then, Canadian firms do not look as attractive as potential investments due to slower growth. Because of this, they do not attract large amounts of late-stage capital and are often sold before they can scale to worldclass size.

All of these factors converge to create serious barriers to growth of Canadian companies, thus necessitating smarter and more strategic thinking about how we will overcome these challenges.

Full Report Here

Top 3 Technology Trends for 2020 | YBF Ventures

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​The bigger influence on Canadian real estate values will be the next decade of our reactions to the exponential growth in climate problems ("very high confidence") global migration pressures and the inevitable expansion towards technological solutions and a new generation of research and development; a new generation of critical thinking.  ​“A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” that is, "Science advances one funeral at a time" Max Planck 1949

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1. Our Globally Changing Climate
KEY FINDINGS

1. The global climate continues to change rapidly compared to the pace of the natural changes in climate that have occurred throughout Earth’s history. Trends in globally-averaged temperature, sea-level rise, upper-ocean heat content, land based ice melt, and other climate variables provide consistent evidence of a warming planet. These observed trends are robust, and have been confirmed by independent research groups around the world. (Very high confidence)
   
   
2. The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation and extreme heat events are increasing in most regions of the world. These trends are consistent with expected physical responses to a warming climate and with climate model studies, although models tend to underestimate the observed trends. The frequency and intensity of such extreme events will very likely continue to rise in the future. Trends for some other types of extreme events, such as floods, droughts, and severe storms, have more regional characteristics. (Very high confidence)
   
   
3. Many lines of evidence demonstrate that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are primarily responsible for the observed climate changes in the industrial era. There are no alternative explanations, and no natural cycles are found in the observational record that can explain the observed changes in climate. (Very high confidence)
   
   
4. Global climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades primarily on the amount of greenhouse (heat trapping) gases emitted globally and the sensitivity of Earth’s climate to those emissions. (Very high confidence)
   
   
5. Natural variability, including El Niño events and other recurring patterns of ocean-atmosphere interactions, have important, but limited influences on global and regional climate over timescales ranging from months to decades. (Very high confidence)
   
   
6. Longer-term climate records indicate that average temperatures in recent decades over much of the world have been higher than at any other time in the past 1700 years or more. ( High confidence)

​1.1 Introduction
Since the Third U.S. National Climate assessment (NCA3) was published in May 2014, new observations along with multiple lines of evidence have strengthened the conclusion that Earth’s climate is changing at a pace and in a pattern not explainable by natural influences.

​Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg chastised world leaders Monday, Sep. 23, for failing younger generations by not taking sufficient steps to stop climate change. "You have stolen my childhood and my dreams with your empty words," Thunberg said at the United Nations Climate Action Summit in New York. "You're failing us, but young people are starting to understand your betrayal. The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you choose to fail us, I say we will never forgive you," she added. Thunberg traveled to the U.S. by sailboat last month so she could appear at the summit. She and other youth activists led international climate strikes on Friday in an attempt to garner awareness ahead of the UN's meeting of political and business leaders.
PBS NewsHour Sep 23, 2019