Now that Trump is plummeting into a straight jacket of impeachment we can look for fallout that may affect Canadian Real Estate over the next year. Trade war, cyber war, military war and the ideological war of words and memes will no doubt affect the animal spirits of investors.
From Wikileaks comes the 1217 page PDF 2017 U.S. Global Change Research Program 'Climate Science Special Report' (CSSR). Below is a screen shot of the key findings page:
Here follows, a text version of the screenshot of the key findings page of the 2017 U.S. Global Change Research Program 'Climate Science Special Report' (CSSR):
1. Our Globally Changing Climate
Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg chastised world leaders Monday, Sep. 23, for failing younger generations by not taking sufficient steps to stop climate change. "You have stolen my childhood and my dreams with your empty words," Thunberg said at the United Nations Climate Action Summit in New York. "You're failing us, but young people are starting to understand your betrayal. The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you choose to fail us, I say we will never forgive you," she added. Thunberg traveled to the U.S. by sailboat last month so she could appear at the summit. She and other youth activists led international climate strikes on Friday in an attempt to garner awareness ahead of the UN's meeting of political and business leaders.
Permafrost, mostly found in high-latitude regions like the Arctic, stores large quantities of carbon dioxide and methane, which are released when it melts. sbs.com.au APR 11, 2017
5 Year Study: Snow, Water, Ice
Imagine $35 Oil for 5yrs
A US-Style Canadian housing correction possibility is a potential that CMHC's CEO Evan Siddall discussed at a private audience presentation in New York, November 30, 2015 if oil remained at an average price of USD$35 per barrel for 5 years.
The top chart are oil prices since the OAPEC (Arab members of OPEC plus Egypt & Syria) oil embargo. Note the 22 year period of sub-$35 oil prices not long ago.
Oil averaging $35/bbl for 5 years
- 26% drop in Canadian home prices
- 12.5% peak unemployment
Global deflation and a US-style Housing Correction
- 30-44% drop in Canadian home prices
- 12-16% peak unemployment
"Canada’s home price growth since the 2008 recession has outpaced that of the U.S., Australia, and the U.K. It also reiterated risks to housing include high debt-to-income and concentration of net worth in housing." Financial Post November 30, 2015 (My Household Debt and Earnings charts are updated monthly - BR)
Donald Sadoway "Science Serving Society"
Energy 2064 with Professor Donald R. Sadoway
The Bill Gates Backed Canadian Building a Better Battery
Anyone with a Twitter feed knows that this year a lot of correlations are being made with the weather. The bottom panel of the mashup shows the latest housing start data in the midwestern U.S. The chart came via Joe Weisenthal at the Business Insider with the question "Think the weather isn't having a major effect on the economy?"
Well yes the weather does "effect ... the economy"; snow tires are doing a booming trade but the chart is housing starts in the midwest and I noticed by looking at a 24 year chart (top panel inset) of U.S. mortgage applications that since the Pit of Gloom in 2009, mortgage demand has dropped even more across the U.S. into a 5 year well defined narrow range similar to but more extended than the mid 1990's.
Yes it's cold out there but as I have highlighted on the lower panel midwest chart, the winter of 2012 saw a spike in starts as dramatic as the current slump and according to a USA Today news item in December 2012 "...parts of 17 states are (were) under winter weather advisories as far west as Washington state and as far east as Maine." At the time of the news, 7 people had already died from weather related events, thousands of flights had been cancelled and tens of thousands were without power. Housing starts peaked that winter.
Multi-unit buildings count each unit as a start and if current weather delays the footings being poured then potential multiple units don't make the "start" count. For the last 5 years, midwest starts have been trending up to a peak in 2012 regardless of weather and this year starts have plunged. It could be a drop in demand for the midwest as a correlation with the rest of the U.S.
In real estate, location and employment opportunities can trump weather.
History, Charts & Curated Readings
Balance Of Trade
Rent Or Buy