"History, real solemn history, I cannot be interested in.... I read it a little as a duty; but it tells me nothing that does not either vex or weary me. The quarrels of popes and kings, with wars and pestilences in every page; the men all so good for nothing, and hardly any women at all - it is very tiresome." Jane Austen spoken by Catherine Morland in 'Northanger Abbey'
Oil Can Economics
The image of enthusiasm for tangible asset speculation rippled through the twitter-sphere this week with the chart above showing the well known disparity between Canadian and U.S. housing prices. One can compare Canada's housing premium to almost anywhere and be impressed with the northern naiveté that passes for Johnny-come-lately investment. Less impressive are the non-arm's length analyses that come attached to these charts that tout the long term safety of real estate by citing the current pickup in the hot metro prices and seasonal upswing in sales now that the polar vortex has stopped blowing. I won't pick on any particular high profile media economist that has been interviewed about the chart except to say that YOU FORGOT ONE VERY GLARING DATA SET... total residential Canadian national MLS sales are down 16% from the 2007 peak over 6 years ago. That's a big momentum drop over a chronic period of time. See my 6 Metro Canadian Housing Chart.
As noted in the Oil Production chart above, there is more than just housing cost disparity between the U.S. and Canada. Sunshine and employment opportunities are still a very large part of the Canadian emigration drive south.
of the 2-3% of Total Residential Sales made to Foreigners:
in 2010-2012, Canadians constituted the biggest segment of the market, followed by Europeans, Asians, Central-South Americans, Chinese, and Mexicans.
of the Canadians who bought U.S, Residential Real Estate:
Diane Francis "Merger of The Century"
History, Charts & Curated Readings
"Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement; and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana Vol. I, Reason in Common Sense