"History, real solemn history, I cannot be interested in.... I read it a little as a duty; but it tells me nothing that does not either vex or weary me. The quarrels of popes and kings, with wars and pestilences in every page; the men all so good for nothing, and hardly any women at all - it is very tiresome." Jane Austen spoken by Catherine Morland in 'Northanger Abbey'
The "Sectoral Savings as a Percentage of Global GDP" chart suggests that households since the mid 1980's have been using up their savings to maintain lifestyle and since the start of ZIRP and NIRP in March of 2009, households with renewed zeal, have been moving cash out of their dwindling low interest savings accounts paired with record low borrowing costs to chase yields at risk.
Corporations since the mid-80's have amassed savings into record levels and after the smoke cleared in 2010, they resumed investment as well.
But in Canada as my Household Debt chart with overlays of GDP, Net Trade and Federal Direct Investment plots show, Canada has not been a net positive target for offshore investment money for the last 20 years. As we know the Alberta tar sands' appeal is troubled:
Carlos Murillo (Conference Board of Canada economist), predicts Canadian (oil sector) industry costs will jump by an average of 13 per cent per year between 2017 and 2021... the peak investment level was $62 billion in 2014... " The Canadian Press March 13, 2017
And the recency bias among households is working itself into heat exhaustion according to Bloomberg (May 8, 2017):
Expectations for Canada’s housing market are heating up, with more than half of respondents in a weekly telephone survey predicting home prices will rise, the first time the measure has topped 50 percent in records dating back to 2008... “Consumer sentiment on real estate has gone from hot to hotter,” said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos... The latest burst of housing momentum has led policy makers to question whether it’s being led by supply and demand or by speculation.
If one is willing to leverage up and buy a negative yielding asset while the attendant stakeholders from government to loan creators are lining up to take a piece of the action, sellers will simply show up and sell it to you. That's a sure thing, just like the Canadian real estate market is speculative 101.
ITEM: "Toronto Homeowners List Detached Homes For Sale At A Record Pace - Toronto homeowners are listing detached homes for sale at a rapid pace, with new listings soaring over 61% last month." BetterDwelling.com May 10, 2017
ITEM: China Commodity Crash Accelerates As Traders "Forced To Destock" ZeroHedge May 9, 2017
Imagine having to sell real estate in a falling Canadian market.
St. Germain - Sure Thing
History, Charts & Curated Readings
"Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement; and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana Vol. I, Reason in Common Sense