The China Carry

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Chanos on China

The 2 panel graphic to the left is from an 18 panel presentation   "China: The Edifice Complex" from Jim Chanos Kynikos Associates at the April 5, 2013 Wine Country Conference.

Jim notes that China's capacity over investment (Cement 12%, Steel 10%, Autos 18%) through 2008-2012 is leading to asset depreciation liabilities via the law of diminishing returns and that the pervasive growth of credit is leaving banks poorly capitalized for potential losses.

Overheard:

• “GDP figures are ‘man-made’ and therefore unreliable, Li said.” Li Keqiang, 1st Vice Premier China US Embassy Cable March 15, 2007 - Wikileaks December 4, 2010
  
  
• “To some extent, this is fundamentally a Ponzi scheme.” Xiao Gang, Chairman Bank of China “Regulating shadow banking” China Daily, October 10, 2012
  
  
• “The bubble must be controlled, or both the real estate market and domestic economy will be jeopardized” Wang Shi, Chairman China Vanke “Vanke boss sees bubble in spike” Standard, January 29, 2013
  
  
• "The government has already been considered untrustworthy, let alone businesses…" Chinese Netizen “Chinese companies trusted in China, says US report; Nope, Say netizens” China Times, February 6, 2013

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"Hong Kong Chinese are leaving Vancouver by the thousands" According to the The Vancouver Sun April 17, 2013

Huh? A west-east carry trade? Sell Vancouver, buy Hong Kong? Nope. As far as Vancouver is concerned it's a population driven event from the excess and worried wealth of Mainland China. The Vancouver Sun quotes an April 13th story in the South China Morning Post "mainland Chinese arrivals in Vancouver outstripped those from Hong Kong by 7,872 to 286 in 2012."