"History, real solemn history, I cannot be interested in.... I read it a little as a duty; but it tells me nothing that does not either vex or weary me. The quarrels of popes and kings, with wars and pestilences in every page; the men all so good for nothing, and hardly any women at all - it is very tiresome." Jane Austen spoken by Catherine Morland in 'Northanger Abbey'
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Sales Slowing for U.S. Existing Housing?
Relative to new home sales, yes.
This sales ratio was fairly stable from the early 1970's through 2006, and then the Titanic hit the berg and a flood of distressed sales kept the number of existing home sales elevated, peaking in 2011 and outpacing new home sales.
The latest mania that started up again in 2012 stoked by big money buying up bank foreclosures to rent out against negative yields maybe maturing because existing house prices in the hot markets have zoomed and so has the 10 Year T-Bond Yield making a 2.5% yield on a no risk government bond way more attractive than waiting for the possibility of a capital gain on flipping a buy, rent and hold asset that may never come. Real estate has a habit of depreciating.
New housing can now also compete on price, and sales of new houses are picking up which is pushing the ratio of Existing/New home sales down.
Bill McBride from CalculatedRisk.com on June 35, 2013 comments:
"I've been tracking inventory weekly, and it appears inventory levels are starting to increase (even after seasonal adjustment). Also I've heard reports from several real estate agents that the market has "slowed" (fewer multiple offer situations), even before mortgage rates increased.
History, Charts & Curated Readings
"Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement; and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana Vol. I, Reason in Common Sense