US Housing Recovery Limited

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REO to OREO to IPO

The Maps show houses for rent in the Phoenix AZ area owned by Silver Bay Realty Trust Corp. which issued its Initial Public Offering (IPO) December 2012 at $18.50/share. 

The top map shows their listing stock for rent in March 2013; the bottom map is 4 months later (July 23, 2013) showing their huge listing pile for rent. 

It reminds me of Monopoly half way through the game when one or two players have their properties fully developed and are waiting for the remaining players to capitulate before the battle to the finish takes place.

The lower chart shows the percentage price change of Silver Bay (SBY down 14%), the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index ETF (IYR up 13%) and the yield on the U.S. 10 Year Treasury ($TNX up 51%) over the last 8 months. Notice that the Silver Bay stock price did not get a lift with the 10yr Treasury yield's most recent correction. Cash buyers preferred the broader ETF IYR. 

There are going to be winners and losers in the corporate rent and flip game and like Monopoly the really big money will probably end up with all the houses.

The housing recovery is for a few shareholders based on the belief of future capital gains. For the rest of society, it's just a different landlord.

My thanks to Barry Ritholtz's So You Want To Be A Landlord? for his observation July 23rd, 2013 of the massive inventory Silver Bay is promoting on their website. 

REO = Real Estate Owned (usually by a lender after foreclosure)
OREO = Other Real Estate Owned (financial statement notation)

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