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Rogue Wave Turns Choppy
There are lots of bullish commentaries about how U.S. housing is leading a "recovery" out of the doom and gloom, But the housing charts tell a different story.
The last 4 years on the Case Shiller Home Index PRICE chart shows a lot of chop in a narrow channel when compared to the previous 10 year "Eiffel Tower" rogue wave, set up by interest rate price fixing and abandonment of appraisal fundamentals.
The Federal Reserve (FRED) chart of New Home SALES shows the same chop in a tight range but at new 50+ year lows.
The current Dow Jones Housing Index (ITB) and national home builder D.R. Horton (DHI) are selling off today carving out new 2 week lows as cash buyers take profit. (Lookup ITB & DHI at stockcharts.com)
Forecast: Strong headwinds, limited visibility with choppy seas ahead.
History, Charts & Curated Readings
"Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement; and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana Vol. I, Reason in Common Sense
"History, real solemn history, I cannot be interested in.... I read it a little as a duty; but it tells me nothing that does not either vex or weary me. The quarrels of popes and kings, with wars and pestilences in every page; the men all so good for nothing, and hardly any women at all - it is very tiresome." Jane Austen spoken by Catherine Morland in 'Northanger Abbey'