HOUSEHOLD DEBT, GDP, FDI & BALANCE OF TRADE at Brian Ripley's Canadian Housing Price Charts

Canadian Household Debt, GDP, Foreign Direct Investment and Balance of Trade FDI NOTES BELOW and Mexican Peso & Canadian Dollar Google Search BELOW

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The widening spread between total household debt and household mortgages means we are borrowing even more to maintain lifestyle.
Foreign Direct Investment OUT higher than IN over the last 24 years means Canadian companies are investing outside of Canada to get a better return on Capital and Labour. For every $1 of investment coming in to Canada, $1.40 leaves (full year 2020 data).
The chronic negative Canadian Balance of Trade means that OUR debt obligations continue to provide more stimulus to offshore than onshore producers.

10 Year Change of Canadian

Household Mortgage Debt: UP 61%
Total Household Debt: UP 50%
GDP: UP 17%
Net Trade: DOWN 175%
2020 FDI Out vs FDI In: UP 843%

Compiled MAY 23, 2021 - Brian Ripley www.chpc.biz

The monthly Net Trade data have been negative 81% of the time in the last 12.5 years.

State crafted ZIRP & NIRP since the crash into 2009 has resulted in more consumption debt and less productive investment in Canada.

TRADING ECONOMICS
Canada Industrial Production
In Canada, industrial production measures the output of businesses integrated in industrial sector of the economy such as manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

Industrial Production in Canada increased 1.83 percent in March of 2021 over the same month in the previous year.

FORECAST: Industrial Production in Canada is expected to be 10.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production in Canada to stand at 2.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Canada Industrial Production is projected to trend around 2.30 percent in 2022 and 1.80 percent in 2023, according to our econometric models.

source: tradingeconomics.com

Clearly the post 2008 credit crash period and our monetary policy coming out of it has led not only to a furious bid in real estate assets with all its consequences of draining disposable income, but the gap between mortgage debt and other household debt remains high and wide relative to pre-crash times.

Canadian Household Debt to Disposable Income
and Share of Wealth by Generation

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TRADING ECONOMICS
Households Credit Market Debt to Disposable Income
Households Debt in Canada decreased to 167.70 percent of gross income in 2021 from 169.87 percent in 2020

FORECAST:
Households Debt To Income in Canada is expected to be 171.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Households Debt To Income in Canada to stand at 171.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Canada Households Credit Market Debt to Disposable Income is projected to trend around 173.00 percent in 2022, according to our econometric models.

source: tradingeconomics.com

FDI FDO NOTES BELOW

StatCan NOTES on 2020 FDI-FDO
Foreign direct investment activity slowed considerably in Canada and globally in 2020 amid upheavals caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

FDI: The largest investment growth INTO CANADA in 2020 was in the professional, scientific and technical services industry... the largest decrease was observed in the mining and oil and gas extraction industry.

FDO: The largest investment growth OUT OF CANADA was in finance and insurance industry services and over the last 5 years it has been out of goods producing industries.

A decade before the 2007-2008 crash as the commodity boom began to peak, our Foreign Direct Investment account flipped poles so that more Canadian capital was being invested offshore than offshore capital was being invested in Canada.

Foreign Direct Investment: The difference between Capital Investment leaving Canada to Capital Investment entering Canada has widened dramatically since 2014 by 23%.

For every dollar coming into Canada
in 2014, $1.14 left
in 2015, $1.33 left
in 2016, $1.27 left
in 2017, $1.36 left
in 2018, $1.47 left
in 2019, $1.43 left
in 2020, $1.40 left

The capital flight out of Canada is at the expense of labour employment.
Brian Ripley www.chpc.biz

Coming out of the March 2009 crash lows with global monetary policy firmly presiding over state suppression of market interest rates, the shift in polarity in the FDI has little reason to flip back to the 1980's and '90's when more offshore investment capital came into Canada than capital leaving Canada.

With the 2020 FDI clocking in at another big "wide", the super trend is very clear; the flight of Canadian capital towards offshore workers is on.

Cheap capital is in search of cheap productive Labour in an effort to realize a better return on investment from exploiting the price mismatch. Clearly this is working as our deeply negative Balance of Trade data suggest; we buy more than we sell, hence we supply net income to entities outside our "borders" financed and subsidized by our own cheap credit and our willingness to hock the future.

GOOGLE SEARCH MXN CAD BELOW

Canadian Household Debt, GDP, Foreign Direct Investment and Balance of Trade FDI NOTES BELOW and Mexican Peso & Canadian Dollar Google Search BELOW

Canadian Household Debt to Disposable Incomeand Share of Wealth by Generation​

With the 2020 FDI clocking in at another big "wide", the super trend is very clear; the flight of Canadian capital towards offshore workers is on.​

​Google Search of Mexican Peso and Canadian Dollar

Canadian Household Debt to Disposable Income
and Share of Wealth by Generation

With the 2020 FDI clocking in at another big "wide", the super trend is very clear; the flight of Canadian capital towards offshore workers is on.

Google Search of Mexican Peso and Canadian Dollar