HOUSEHOLD DEBT, GDP, FDI & BALANCE OF TRADE at Brian Ripley's Canadian Housing Price Charts

Canadian Household Debt, GDP, Foreign Direct Investment and Balance of Trade FDI NOTES BELOW and Mexican Peso & Canadian Dollar Google Search BELOW

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The widening spread between total household debt and household mortgages means we are borrowing even more to maintain lifestyle.
Foreign Direct Investment OUT higher than IN over the last 20+ years means Canadian companies are investing outside of Canada to get a better return on Capital and Labour. For every $1 of investment coming in to Canada, $1.43 leaves (full year 2019 data).
The chronic negative Canadian Balance of Trade means that OUR debt obligations continue to provide more stimulus to offshore than onshore producers.

10 Year Change of Canadian

Household Mortgage Debt: UP 69%
Total Household Debt: UP 58%
Net Trade: DOWN 44%
FDI Out vs FDI In: UP 633%
GDP: UP 15%

Compiled March 2021
Brian Ripley www.chpc.biz

February 2021 Net Trade Data: In the last 12.25 years, 82% of the monthly data have been negative.

State crafted ZIRP & NIRP since the crash into 2009 has resulted in more consumption debt and less productive investment in Canada.

TRADING ECONOMICS
Canada Industrial Production
In Canada, industrial production measures the output of businesses integrated in industrial sector of the economy such as manufacturing, mining, and utilities.
FORECAST: Industrial Production in Canada is expected to be 0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production in Canada to stand at 2.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Canada Industrial Production is projected to trend around 2.30 percent in 2022 and 1.80 percent in 2023, according to our econometric models.

source: tradingeconomics.com

Clearly the post 2008 credit crash period and our monetary policy coming out of it has led not only to a furious bid in real estate assets with all its consequences of draining disposable income, but the gap between mortgage debt and other household debt remains high and wide relative to pre-crash times.

Canadian Household Debt to Disposable Income
and Share of Wealth by Generation

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TRADING ECONOMICS Households Credit Market Debt to Disposable Income
Households Debt in Canada decreased to 169.87 percent of gross income in 2020 from 170.93 percent in 2020. (via StatCan)
FORECAST: Households Debt To Income in Canada is expected to be 170.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Households Debt To Income in Canada to stand at 171.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Canada Households Credit Market Debt to Disposable Income is projected to trend around 173.00 percent in 2022, according to our econometric models..

source: tradingeconomics.com

FDI FDO NOTES BELOW

StatsCan NOTES on 2019 FDI-FDO
SNIPPIT: "The stock of Canadian direct investment abroad rose 2.5% to $1,391.3 billion at the end of 2019. Significant cross-border investments were moderated by a downward revaluation due to the appreciation of the Canadian dollar against most major foreign currencies."

A decade before the 2007-2008 crash as the commodity boom began to peak, our Foreign Direct Investment account flipped poles so that more Canadian capital was being invested offshore than offshore capital was being invested in Canada.

Coming out of the March 2009 crash lows with global monetary policy firmly presiding over state suppression of market interest rates, the shift in polarity in the FDI has little reason to flip back to the 1980's and '90's when more offshore investment capital came into Canada than capital leaving Canada.

Foreign Direct Investment: The difference between Capital Investment leaving Canada to Capital Investment entering Canada has widened dramatically since 2014 by 29%.

For every dollar coming into Canada
in 2014, $1.14 left
in 2015, $1.33 left
in 2016, $1.27 left
in 2017, $1.36 left
in 2018, $1.47 left
in 2019, $1.43 left

The 20 year widening super trend has been accelerating. The growing capital flight out of Canada is at the expense of labour employment.

Brian Ripley www.chpc.biz
See Employment Rate Chart

With the 2019 FDI clocking in at another big "wide", the super trend is now very clear; the flight of Canadian capital towards offshore workers is still on and accelerating.

Cheap capital is in search of cheap productive Labour in an effort to realize a better return on investment from exploiting the price mismatch. Clearly this is working as our deeply negative Balance of Trade data suggest; we buy more than we sell, hence we supply net income to entities outside our "borders" financed and subsidized by our own cheap credit and our willingness to hock the future.

GOOGLE SEARCH MXN CAD BELOW

Canadian Household Debt, GDP, Foreign Direct Investment and Balance of Trade FDI NOTES BELOW and Mexican Peso & Canadian Dollar Google Search BELOW

Canadian Household Debt to Disposable Incomeand Share of Wealth by Generation​

With the 2019 FDI clocking in at another big "wide", the super trend is now very clear; the flight of Canadian capital towards offshore workers is still on and accelerating.​

​Google Search of Mexican Peso and Canadian Dollar

Canadian Household Debt to Disposable Income
and Share of Wealth by Generation

With the 2019 FDI clocking in at another big "wide", the super trend is now very clear; the flight of Canadian capital towards offshore workers is still on and accelerating.

Google Search of Mexican Peso and Canadian Dollar