HOUSING PRICE MOMENTUM Y/Y RATE OF CHANGE for Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto Single Family Detached Prices and the TSX Real Estate Index and Google Search BELOW
Vancouver SFD prices are HPI® Benchmark; Toronto and Calgary SFD price are average.
In June 2018 Toronto SFD price momentum continued plumbing the recent near term crash lows while Vancouver faces exhaustion and Calgary hovers at the flatline. The contrarian cash markets of the TSX real estate index is losing its nerve.
There is the overhanging threat from the Trump White House and its advertised changes coming to trade protectionism and energy sector deregulation in the U.S. where the oil majors are focusing their attention and retreating from the expense of Alberta's capital intensive oil sands.
Canadian drilling fleet has shrunk from nearly 900 rigs in 2014 to 621 now
A growing number of Canadian drilling rigs are being moved south of the border to take advantage of brighter prospects for oil and gas in the United States — and observers say it's unlikely they will ever return home. Canadian Press via CBC News January 31, 2018
Back in 1Q 2007 the TSX RE Index plunged below the flat line with the global troubles and 18 months later, investors found themselves at the Get Me Out level (down 40% Y/Y).
Now, 9.3 years after the Pit of Gloom March 2009 crash lows and the imposed statecraft of ZIRP and NIRP, anxiety is growing about energy sector downtrends and imported price inflation from a weakening CAD/USD.
Social media moves markets now and I expect the swoon to be more dramatic when it comes. You can follow my tweets here.