Ratios of Gold over TSX Real Estate and CRB over TSX Real Estate
The chart above shows the ratio of CA$ Gold Bullion over the TSX Real Estate Index (Gold/RE) as well as the ratio of the CA$ CRB (Commodities) Index over the TSX Real Estate Index (CRB/RE). Housing is a bundled commodity (lumber, steel, copper, materials, fuel to get to the site) and the CRB/RE and the Gold/RE ratios had been moving parallel to each other up until the fall of 2008 when the Gold/RE ratio began to diverge up with the massive sell off of real estate and the spike in gold. Since that pit of gloom in equities and commodities, the TSX real estate buyers have been extending their gains but Gold has been outperforming. I have added the Gold/CRB ratio (dashed pink) to track the "real price of gold". When commodity prices fall, the balance sheet of gold miners improve even if the nominal price of gold remains flat. As of January 2012 gold bounced off of support to carve out a consolidating base along the trend line and with the CRB dropping the Gold/CRB ratio moved up. Meanwhile the Gold/RE ratio moved down with the bullish action in the TSX real estate index rising nearly 5% M/M. Notice the CRB has been range bound for 2 years and has not headed back up to retest the peak when oil spiked to $147/barrel in the summer of 2008. A falling CRB is excellent for gold miners and ultimately good for house buyers as the replacement value for real estate falls.
|

