REAL 10 YEAR INTEREST RATE Bank of Canada 10 year Bond less CPI; also the TSX Real Estate, Energy and Gold Indexes
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The chart above shows that in October 2018 the "Real" Bank of Canada 10 Year Treasury Yield (the rate less CPI - blue dotted plot) escaped from the negative Nirp-O-Nomic rate zone.
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Gold has put in a five year base but the 2016 summer breakout has given way to a retreat back to a midpoint in that 5 year plot.
Global currency turmoil as well as trade and war unknowns are coloring both sides of the debate on the ultimate direction of gold and interest rates. |
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NIRP & ZIRP resurrected CPI with a print of 3% in July but now has dropped back to 2.2% (Sept print). Meanwhile household earnings data (2 months lag) are back up to their peaks in most of Canada while in real time, the TSX real estate cash index has turned trend and is heading down. |
Compare 2006-2008 to 2015-2017
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The 10 year bond yield is a bench mark for real estate mortgage rates. I have used it in my Vancouver Condo Case Study to measure risk against the buy and hold argument.
