REAL LONG INTEREST RATE The Bank of Canada 30 year Bond Rate less CPI and the TSX Real Estate Index Plot. Household Savings Rate Chart Below. ​See also the Real 10yr Rate the Interest Rate Spread and the Canadian Yield Curve

CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

The chart above shows that in June 2021, the real long (30yr) interest rate (plum plot line) put in a new negative low return as CPI moved up to 3.6% (1 month reporting lag). ​The Bank of Canada CPI target mandate has been 2-3% since 1993 (Canadian Library of Parliament). 

Negative CPI prints occurred in April 2020 at -0.2% and in May 2020 at -0.4% during the first Covid 19 wave.
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​​​During the global ZIRP-NIRP experiment, citizens have not be able to earn enough real positive returns on cash assets, so consumption replaced savings. Now after 12.3 years of ZIRP-NIRP and Covid 19 still in full bloom in many parts of the world we have the TSX real estate cash index (green dotted plot line) remaining well above the 1Q 2007 start of cash prices crashing into the gloom of March 2009 and are now well above the March 2020 lock down lows.
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The live TradingEconomics.com Canada Household Savings Rate chart follows:

Household Savings Rate

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​Canada Household Savings Rate RISING
as Projected Below

source: tradingeconomics.com

Household Saving Rate in Canada increased to 13.10 percent in the first quarter of 2021 from 12.70 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020. In Canada, personal saving is personal disposable income less personal expenditure on consumer goods and services, less current transfers from persons to corporations and to non-residents as a percent of disposable income.

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​Savings on the Rise

My August 1, 2019 post Japan Redux suggests that the next part of the credit cycle (the bust) will include the return to savings as spent consumers work on repairing their balance sheets. 

​My January 25, 2019 post on Peak Consumption shows the relationships among the rates of Canadian household savings at the lows​​, consumer spending at the highs and retail sales momentum plunging as consumers become tapped out.​
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As peak real estate prices correct, those at the margin will turn to a lengthy balance sheet repair discipline by diverting discretionary consumption spending to debt reduction or will turn to a quick transformation of debt to equity via asset liquidation. In either case it will take time as Canadians turn away from consumption back to saving which in the long term will lead back to investment possibilities. ​

A Snippet from my DEC 2012 post "What do you do during a housing bust? "

As housing prices fall over long time spans, households have to make decisions about how they are going to turn the debt they acquired on the way up into equity. 

There are two basic choices; get in front of the falling price curve and sell at a either a loss or gain depending on timing, or if the household has the income and positive cash flow, pay down the debt over time as a forced savings plan. The former allows for greater savings and re-investment and the latter is a lifestyle chained to a decaying asset.

In either case, households turn to saving and away from consumption.

My June, 30, 2021 post "Japan's Deflation Path" continues the data study.