REAL PRICE of HOUSING at Brian Ripley's Canadian Housing Price Charts and Plunge-O-Meter

REAL PRICE of HOUSING of Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary Single Family Detached and the Bank of Canada $CAD Commodity Index and 5 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

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The chart above shows the "real price" of Vancouver, Toronto & Calgary SFDs when looked at from the point of view of the BoC Canadian Commodity Index (CCI) and Borrowing Costs (retail 5yr Mortgage) which are the main input costs apart from operating expenses and tax.

In February 2021 Canadian commodity prices broke out above 2Q 2018 high as represented by the CCI (black plot line) with crude futures spiking after hitting a negative print of USD -37.63 in April 2020.

Commodity driven real housing prices (solid coloured plots) in Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver moved down as a result.

Nominal housing price increases and the historic interest rate lows have been the real price supports since 3Q 2019

The April 2020 total CPI print crashed to a negative -0.2% reading and on the May print it dropped to -0.4%. The most recent January 2021 CPI print came in at 1%.

Counter to commodity deflation, the USD/CAD inflation since 3Q 2011 inflates our USD denominated import prices.

The yield curve inversion of the 10yr less 2yr bond yield spread marked its 8th consecutive print in February 2020 but since then has put in 12 positive prints . The year long novel coronavirus global pandemic and the long term energy sector downtrend since 2008 is recessionary.

When credit is a lifestyle employer as it has been in Canada, the demand in this environment for equity appraisers and margin clerks continues to grow.

The CCI train wreck into the March 2009 Pit of Gloom saw a 44% crash in just 7 months and the experiment of ZIRP to NIRP monetary policy from November 2007 to July 2017, combined with CMHC's out-of-control insurance scheme (also add in the BC Gov't Sub Prime Cash give-away) has been a terrible social experiment in the service of political power and it has replaced affordable housing with indentured mania. There must be a better way.