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                                                                                        November 2011 Scorecard
                                                                                        JANUARY 2012 SCORECARD

                                                                                        THE MLS® HPI Index started being in use February 2012 by  Montreal, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.
                                                                                         

                                                                                        The Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB), Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and four other major real estate boards across Canada have developed a new system to measure and provide clarity on home prices and home price growth: the MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI). 
                                                                                         
                                                                                        The MLS® HPI is calculated using a sophisticated statistical model that is a hybrid of both the repeat sales and hedonic price approaches.  The MLS® HPI takes into account a home’s quantitative attributes (e.g. the number of rooms it has; square footage etc.) and qualitative attributes (e.g., whether it has a finished basement, a view etc.).
                                                                                         
                                                                                        The MLS® HPI approach provides a less volatile measure of price than averages and medians, which can swing dramatically in response to changes in the mix of home sales from one time period to the next (see Chart 1 on Page 2 of this release for a visual comparison).
                                                                                         
                                                                                        Each month, there will be two key outputs published using the MLS® HPI:
                                                                                         
                                                                                        1. A series of price indices – The MLS® HPI price indices work in a similar fashion to the Consumer Price Index (Canada’s measure of consumer price inflation).  The indices have a base month/year of January 2005, where the indices are equal to 100.  In January 2012 TREB’s composite HPI was 143.6.  This means that the composite price index grew by 43.6 per cent between January 2005 and January 2012.  On a month-over-month basis, TREB’s composite HPI was up by 0.28 per cent compared to December 2011 and also up by 7.6 per cent year-over-year in comparison to January 2011.

                                                                                        2. A series of benchmark home prices – The MLS® HPI has also been used to establish benchmark homes down to TREB’s Community level of geography for major home types including single family (detached and attached), townhouses and apartments.  A benchmark home is composed of a set of attributes typical of homes in the area where it is located, and remains constant over time.  This allows for an apples-to-apples comparison of price over time.

                                                                                        Read the full  February 6th 2012 report here: Toronto Real Estate Board News Release 

                                                                                        The MLS Home Price Index Methodology (contains detailed information on the background, calculations, and specifications of the MLS® Home Price Index) and the Property Type Descriptions (a reference to the property types included in the MLS® Home Price Index) are located here: http://homepriceindex.ca/hpi_resources_en.html

                                                                                        My notes pre February 2012 on the Scorecard data above are from...

                                                                                        ...the Real Estate Board's websites and refer to RESIDENTIAL UNITS ONLY. The different Real Estate Boards do not publish a glossary of shared terminology, nor do they use consistent labeling of data, nor do they report their data in a consistent manner. Inventory levels are difficult to monitor, some metrics appear one month but not the next, sometimes only new listings are tabulated, and sometimes total active listings are reported. The reporting boards like to spin their numbers and use adjectives like "balanced" when describing ballooning inventory and sagging sales, or they don't report current conditions fully but rely on references to past glories or year to date measures which smooth out near term trend changes.

                                                                                        CMHC is no better at producing clear transparent publication of data. They love to "seasonally adjust" as if real estate exists in a vacuum not affected by financial markets and global events. Or at the other extreme they tabulate minutia and leave it to the reader to assemble a meaningful picture.

                                                                                        All of these (non-public) organizations represent interests that have reasons to cloak data when it suits an agenda.  When monthly data are unavailable to draw a complete chart, I have used an average calculation between the months preceding and following the missing data point.

                                                                                        The Ottawa Real Estate Board does not publish sales or inventory details but leaves that up to CMHC. And CMHC is at least one month behind, and inconsistent in their reporting as well. On the Canadian Cities Chart I have used Ottawa combined residential prices because detached single family data are not published monthly.

                                                                                        Toronto data on the chart are average Single Family Detached Dwelling prices in the GTA since March 2009 (when the TREB began reporting GTA SFD). Prior to March 2009, data are average combined residential prices in the GTA PLUS 24.5% which is the average percentage difference between combined residential and SFD over 24 months from March 2009 through February 2011.

                                                                                        Montreal data on the Canadian Cities Chart changes from average to median price reporting at March 2007. CMHC stopped reporting average prices for Montreal as of February 2009. Montreal is usually late in reporting and sometimes I will publish without the most recent Montreal data point.

                                                                                        Inventory Note: When available I use "Active Listings at End of Month" rather than "New Listings Added". Again, there is no consistency in reporting inventory from the various real estate boards or CMHC.

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