TSX INDEXES for Energy, Real Estate, Financial Services, Gold and the Bank of Canada Commodities in $CAD.
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In July 2019, StatsCan revised their data set on the CCI metric and produced a new peak at July 2005 which I have labelled.
In October 2019 gold bullion prices after building a 6 year base remains at the current highs as reflected in the TSX Gold index which is testing the 2016 high.
The Canadian commodities index (CCI red plot line) is following the seasonal Crude Oil price contraction. The energy sector downtrend (black plot line) since the manic high of July 2008 continues to stair step down.
CPI (one month lag - chart here) remains below the Bank of Canada 2% inflation target at 1.9%. After 10.7 years of ZIRP and NIRP total CPI is still in a long term downtrend.
The up-trending USD/CAD on the monthly chart since the beginning of February 2018 will continue to increase import costs into Canada.
In October 2019 gold bullion prices after building a 6 year base remains at the current highs as reflected in the TSX Gold index which is testing the 2016 high.
The Canadian commodities index (CCI red plot line) is following the seasonal Crude Oil price contraction. The energy sector downtrend (black plot line) since the manic high of July 2008 continues to stair step down.
CPI (one month lag - chart here) remains below the Bank of Canada 2% inflation target at 1.9%. After 10.7 years of ZIRP and NIRP total CPI is still in a long term downtrend.
The up-trending USD/CAD on the monthly chart since the beginning of February 2018 will continue to increase import costs into Canada.
CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE
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In Calgary strata housing prices are labouring under the new Energy Sector 2.0 as the oil majors head for blacker fields. Big money is fleeing Canada and has been for 20 years, and on the street, Calgary buyers are bidding strata prices lower while their earnings remain the highest in the country. |
NOTE: the CRB chart below shows that global commodities measured in USD plunged from 2008 through 2018 and continues to trend in the bottom of the range.
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This reflects the global slowdown in demand producing export deflation for Canadians while import inflation with the rising USD/CAD adds to our consumption costs.
The Canadian energy sector excitement at the end of FY 2016 had been muted by a weakening CAD and from all the trumpeting below the border about energy independence and tariff threats. |
