TSX INDEXES for Energy, Real Estate, Financial Services, Gold and the Bank of Canada Commodities in $CAD. See also the WTI vs WCS Crude Oil Price Spread below
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In December 2018 gold bullion prices after building a 5 year base is on an uptrend propelling the TSX Gold index along with it. The Canadian commodities index (CCI red plot line) found an uptick but Crude Oil continued dropping after the short lived July 2018 CPI print at 3% (1 month lag; November total CPI data now at 1.7%).
The counter up-trending USD/CAD since the beginning of February 2018 will continue to increase import costs into Canada.
In December 2018 gold bullion prices after building a 5 year base is on an uptrend propelling the TSX Gold index along with it. The Canadian commodities index (CCI red plot line) found an uptick but Crude Oil continued dropping after the short lived July 2018 CPI print at 3% (1 month lag; November total CPI data now at 1.7%).
The counter up-trending USD/CAD since the beginning of February 2018 will continue to increase import costs into Canada.
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Note that the inset Thompson Reuters CRB chart in the chart above shows that global commodities measured in USD plunged from 2008 through 2018.
The Canadian energy sector excitement at the end of FY 2016 had been muted by a weakening CAD and from all the trumpeting below the border about energy independence and tariff threats.
The energy sector downtrend (black plot line) since the manic high of July 2008 continues to stair step down and is showing signs of relentless exhaustion. As it rolls over, the animal spirits in the real estate market are getting spooked.
Canadian drilling fleet has shrunk from nearly 900 rigs in 2014 to 621 now |
WTI vs WCS Crude Oil Prices
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Oil is slippery, CMHC is worried, and so is the Department of Finance Canada (DEC 2016). The oil majors are moving out of Alberta.
Major European Banks Are Backing Away From The Oilsands.
The decision by Europe's largest bank, HSBC, to halt funding for new projects in the oilsands has some wondering if other financial institutions, including U.S. banks and pension funds, will eventually follow suit — and what the impact that might have on Canada's energy sector. HSBC last Friday became the latest European bank to announce that it would no longer finance new greenfield oilsands, coal power plant and arctic drilling projects. It follows BNP Paribas and ING, both of which made similar announcements in the past year. HuffPost April 28, 2018
A massive number of oil and gas wells, facilities and pipeline segments stand to be added to the already bulging files of the Alberta Orphan Well Association in the wake of the likely failure of Sequoia Resources Corp. Calgary Herald March 8, 2018
Over the past three years Canada, and specifically Alberta, have seen an unprecedented exit of capital. This has been caused by several factors... There are three reasons for this: higher operating costs, limited access to markets for their product and an unfriendly political climate. BOEreport.com March 30, 2017
In October 2017, Alberta Energy Regulator listed almost 4,000 orphaned properties in Alberta
In March 2017, Conoco Phillips divests majority of Alberta assets for $17.7 billion
In March 2017, Marathon divests oil assets to CNRL for $2.5 billion
In March 2017, Shell divests oilsands assets to CNRL for $7.25 billion
In December of 2016, Shell sells Montney and Deep Basin assets to Tourmaline for $1.4 billion
In December 2016, Statoil sold its Canadian Thermal Oil assets to Athabasca Oil Corp for $582 million
In October of 2016, Koch Oil Sands issues letter to AER requesting canellation of SAGD project
In June 2016 Chevron announced it was looking to unload more assets in Western Canada
In April 2016, Murphy Oil sold its 5% interest in Syncrude to Suncor for $937 million
In November 2015 ConocoPhillips sold a massive land package
In February 2015, Shell withdrew an application for a new oilsands mine
In December 2014, EOG Resources divested the majority of its Canadian assets
In September 2014 Statoil put an oilsands project on hold for 3 years as it grappled with rising costs
In March 2014, Apache sold a large portion of their Western Canada assets for $374 million
In February 2014 Devon Energy sold $3.125 billion of assets to CNRL
In 2007 financial fears and energy anxieties had real estate appraisers dusting off their calculators and adding the income approach and replacement calculations back onto their comp-heavy arguments.
Comparative analysis becomes moot in a no-bid-thin-bid market and gives way to fundamental and financial analysis when looking at physical assets.
