TSX INDICES at Brian Ripley's Canadian Housing Price Charts and Plunge-O-Meter

TSX INDEXES for Energy, Real Estate, Financial Services, Gold and the Bank of Canada Commodities in $CAD.

CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

In July 2019, StatsCan revised their data set on the CCI metric and produced a new peak at July 2005 which I have labelled.

In March 2021 the Canadian commodities index (CCI red plot line), after hitting the April 2020 Covid 19 lock-down low continued moving up with the crude oil bulls and is now above the 2018 highs heading towards the 2014 highs. The long term CCI downtrend will still have to clear the July 2008 WTI crude oil peak if the breakout is to continue.

The Crude Oil price contraction in April also hit a new low with the futures market hitting a negative print of USD $-37.63. The TSX energy sector downtrend (black plot line) since the manic high of July 2008 continues to stair step down.

CPI (one month lag - chart here) crashed below the Bank of Canada 2-3% inflation target with a negative print in April at -0.2%. and in May at negative -0.4%. After 12 years of ZIRP and NIRP total CPI came in at 1.1% on the February 2021 print and is still in a long term downtrend keeping inflation below the BoC target.

See my June 28th post "Deflation Probability".

Gold bullion prices after building a 7 year base has been turned back at the resistance levels that were set up back in 2010-2011 (Gold, Bitcoin & Real Estate Chart). The test of the 2011 TSX Gold index highs has been put on hold with the strengthening USD and recent increase in USD Crude Oil (see Canadian Housing denominated in USD chart).

Gold price is widely followed in financial markets around the world. Gold was the basis of economic capitalism for hundreds of years until the repeal of the Gold standard, which led to the expansion of a fiat currency system in which paper money doesn't have an implied backing with any physical form of monetization. AU is the code for Gold on the Periodic table of elements, and the price above is Gold quoted in US Dollars, which is the common yardstick for measuring the value of Gold across the world.

TradingView The US Dollar vs. the Canadian Dollar is a very popular currency pair due to the extremely large amount of cross border trading that occurs between the U.S. and Canada.

The CAD is considered to be a commodity currency because of the large amount of natural resources, especially oil, that are mined and exported to southern neighbors. The USDCAD is one of the most traded currency pairs in the world.

CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

In Calgary strata housing prices are labouring under the new Energy Sector 2.0 as the oil majors head for blacker fields and condo owners continue bailing.

Big money is fleeing Canada and has been for 20 years, and on the street, Calgary buyers are bidding strata prices lower while their earnings remain the highest in the country.

I published this chart in a 2012 post after it was evident that global commodities had peaked: "What Do You Do During a Housing Bust".

CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

TSX INDEXES for Energy, Real Estate, Financial Services, Gold and the Bank of Canada Commodities in $CAD.

I published this chart in a 2012 post after it was evident that global commodities had peaked: ​"What Do You Do During a Housing Bust".

I published this chart in a 2012 post after it was evident that global commodities had peaked: "What Do You Do During a Housing Bust".