TSX INDEXES for Energy, Real Estate, Financial Services, Gold and the Bank of Canada Commodities in $CAD.
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In July 2019, StatsCan revised their data set on the CCI metric and produced a new peak at July 2005 which I have labelled.
In June 2021 the Canadian commodities index (CCI red plot line), after hitting the April 2020 Covid 19 lock-down low continued moving up with the crude oil bulls and is now test ing the 2014 highs.
The Crude Oil price contraction of April 2020 and the early days of the Covid lockdown produced the historic futures market low of a negative print of USD $-37.63. The TSX energy sector downtrend (black plot line) since the manic high of July 2008 continues its recent rally but inside a 13 year downtrend channel.
The TSX Gold and Real Estate Indices are heading back towards the 2020 highs while the TSX Financials index is carving out new highs.
CPI (one month lag - chart here) crashed below the Bank of Canada 2-3% inflation target with a negative print in April at -0.2%. and in May at negative -0.4%. After 12.3 years of ZIRP and NIRP total CPI came in at 3.6% on the May 2021 print and is still in a long term downtrend but flirting again with the BoC target of 2-3%. A potential rate rise is still being held back by the mssing second BoC mandate of full employment.
The Crude Oil price contraction of April 2020 and the early days of the Covid lockdown produced the historic futures market low of a negative print of USD $-37.63. The TSX energy sector downtrend (black plot line) since the manic high of July 2008 continues its recent rally but inside a 13 year downtrend channel.
The TSX Gold and Real Estate Indices are heading back towards the 2020 highs while the TSX Financials index is carving out new highs.
CPI (one month lag - chart here) crashed below the Bank of Canada 2-3% inflation target with a negative print in April at -0.2%. and in May at negative -0.4%. After 12.3 years of ZIRP and NIRP total CPI came in at 3.6% on the May 2021 print and is still in a long term downtrend but flirting again with the BoC target of 2-3%. A potential rate rise is still being held back by the mssing second BoC mandate of full employment.
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Gold price is widely followed in financial markets around the world. Gold was the basis of economic capitalism for hundreds of years until the repeal of the Gold standard, which led to the expansion of a fiat currency system in which paper money doesn't have an implied backing with any physical form of monetization. AU is the code for Gold on the Periodic table of elements, and the price above is Gold quoted in US Dollars, which is the common yardstick for measuring the value of Gold across the world. |
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TradingView The US Dollar vs. the Canadian Dollar is a very popular currency pair due to the extremely large amount of cross border trading that occurs between the U.S. and Canada. The CAD is considered to be a commodity currency because of the large amount of natural resources, especially oil, that are mined and exported to southern neighbors. The USDCAD is one of the most traded currency pairs in the world. |
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In Calgary strata housing prices are labouring under the new Energy Sector 2.0 as the oil majors head for blacker fields and condo owners continue bailing.
Big money is fleeing Canada and has been for 20 years, and on the street, Calgary buyers are bidding strata prices lower while their earnings remain the highest in the country. |
I published this chart in a 2012 post after it was evident that global commodities had peaked: "What Do You Do During a Housing Bust".
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