TSX INDEXES for Energy, Real Estate, Financial Services, Gold and the Bank of Canada Commodities in $CAD.
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In July 2019, StatsCan revised their data set on the CCI metric and produced a new peak at July 2005 which I have labelled.
In June 2020 the Canadian commodities index (CCI red plot line) made it back up to the long term downtrend after hitting a new low on the April Covid 19 shutdown.
The Crude Oil price contraction in April also hit a new low with the futures market hitting a negative print of USD $-37.63. The TSX energy sector downtrend (black plot line) since the manic high of July 2008 continues to stair step down.
CPI (one month lag - chart here) crashed below the Bank of Canada 2% inflation target last month with a negative print in April at -0.2%. and in May it ticked up to negative -0.4%. After 11.3 years of ZIRP and NIRP total CPI is still in a long term downtrend and inflation has been shuttered.
Get used to a deflationary environment; we're here. See my June 28th post "Deflation Probability".
In June 2020 gold bullion prices after building a 7 year base remained above the previous July 2016 high as reflected in the TSX Gold index.
The Crude Oil price contraction in April also hit a new low with the futures market hitting a negative print of USD $-37.63. The TSX energy sector downtrend (black plot line) since the manic high of July 2008 continues to stair step down.
CPI (one month lag - chart here) crashed below the Bank of Canada 2% inflation target last month with a negative print in April at -0.2%. and in May it ticked up to negative -0.4%. After 11.3 years of ZIRP and NIRP total CPI is still in a long term downtrend and inflation has been shuttered.
Get used to a deflationary environment; we're here. See my June 28th post "Deflation Probability".
In June 2020 gold bullion prices after building a 7 year base remained above the previous July 2016 high as reflected in the TSX Gold index.
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Gold price is widely followed in financial markets around the world. Gold was the basis of economic capitalism for hundreds of years until the repeal of the Gold standard, which led to the expansion of a fiat currency system in which paper money doesn't have an implied backing with any physical form of monetization. AU is the code for Gold on the Periodic table of elements, and the price above is Gold quoted in US Dollars, which is the common yardstick for measuring the value of Gold across the world. |
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In Calgary strata housing prices are labouring under the new Energy Sector 2.0 as the oil majors head for blacker fields and condo owners continue bailing. Big money is fleeing Canada and has been for 20 years, and on the street, Calgary buyers are bidding strata prices lower while their earnings remain the highest in the country. |
NOTE: the CRB chart below shows that global commodities measured in USD plunged from 2008 through 2018 and continues to trend in the bottom of the range.
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This reflects the global slowdown in demand producing export deflation for Canadians while import inflation with the rising USD/CAD adds to our consumption costs.
The Canadian energy sector excitement at the end of FY 2016 had been muted by a weakening CAD and from all the trumpeting below the border about energy independence and tariff threats. |
Here is one of a series of charts I published in a 2012 post after it was evident that global commodities had peaked...
"What Do You Do During a Housing Bust".
Check it out.
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